000 AXNT20 KNHC 311805 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1815 UTC Fri Jan 31 2025 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1630 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Caribbean Gale Warning: The pressure gradient between a ridge over the western Atlantic and the Colombian low will sustain strong to near-gale force ENE winds across the south-central Caribbean through at least Tuesday next week. These winds are going to peak at gale-force during the nighttime and early morning hours, offshore of Colombia. Seas under the strongest winds will peak at 12 to 14 ft. Gulf of Mexico Gale Warning: A cold front extends southeastward from near New Orleans, Louisianato just northwest of Veracruz, Mexico. Scattered showers and isolated strong thunderstorms are occurring up to 100 nm along either side of the front. As this front pushes farther southeastward this afternoon and tonight, fresh to strong N winds behind it will reach near- gale to gale- force offshore of Veracruz this evening through early Saturday morning. Winds under the strongest winds will build to between 8 and 10 ft. For both Gale Warnings, please read the latest NWS High Seas and Offshore Waters Forecasts issued by the National Hurricane Center at websites: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml and https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/offshores.php for more details. Gale Warning E of 35W: Meteo-France is forecasting gale winds at the Agadir and Tarfaya marine zones until 01/0000 UTC. Please refer to the website: https://wwmiws.wmo.int for more information. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... A monsoon trough stays mostly over the African Continent. An ITCZ extends west-southwestward from 04N16W across 01N30W to 01S46W. Scattered moderate convection is observed up to 150 nm along either side of the ITCZ. ...GULF OF MEXICO... Please read the Special Features section regarding a Gale Warning and related cold front. Fresh to strong NW to N winds and seas at 5 to 7 ft exist behind the cold front mentioned in the Special Features section. A broad surface ridge reaches west-southwestward from central Florida to the southwestern Bay of Campeche. This feature is supporting gentle to moderate E to SE winds and 2 to 4 ft seas for the rest of the Gulf. For the forecast, the front will shift eastward over the next couple of days, then stall and dissipate from southern Florida to 22N91W to the Bay of Campeche this weekend. Moderate to fresh winds west of the front will strengthen over the southwestern Gulf west of the front today and tonight. Locally very rough seas will accompany these winds. Afterward, high pressure will build in the wake of the front, supporting gentle to moderate winds and slight to moderate seas across the Gulf this weekend into early next week. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... Please read the Special Features section regarding a Gale Warning. A trade-wind pattern continues across much of the Caribbean. Strong to near-gale ENE winds and seas of 8 to 12 ft are present at the south-central basin. Fresh to strong ENE to E winds and 6 to 9 ft seas are found at the north-central and southwestern basin, including the Windward Passage except gentle to moderate ENE winds with 3 to 6 ft seas near Costa Rica and Panama. Moderate to fresh E winds and seas at 5 to 7 ft are seen across the eastern basin. Gentle to moderate E to ESE winds with 4 to 6 ft seas prevail at the northwestern basin. . For the forecast, widespread moderate to fresh trades will prevail across much of the basin east of 80W, with winds pulsing to strong across the central basin. Rough seas will occur across the central and southwestern basin, with localized very rough seas near the strongest winds. Elsewhere, residual E swell in the tropical Atlantic waters will combine with a new N swell this weekend, promoting locally rough seas east of the Windward and Leeward Islands and their passages into the Caribbean through the middle of next week. Moderate seas will prevail across the remainder of the basin. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... A cold front runs southwestward from the north-central Atlantic across 31N51W to 28N67W. Patchy showers are occurring up to 50 nm along either side of this feature. A shear line extends southwestward from 31N45W to 21N61W, then turns westward to near Great Inagua. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are seen up to 50 nm along either side of the shear line east of 53W. Patchy showers are found near and up to 80 nm south of the shear line west of 53W. Refer to the Monsoon Trough/ITCZ section for additional weather in the Atlantic Ocean. Moderate to fresh with locally strong NE to E winds and seas of 7 to 9 ft are present north of 19N between the shear line to near 26N63W, including the southeast Bahamas. Farther northwest of 26N63W, gentle to moderate E to SE winds and seas of 4 to 6 ft are noted all the way to the Florida coast. For the western Atlantic north of 22N between 35W and the shear line, gentle to moderate ESE to S winds and seas of 7 to 8 ft in moderate easterly swells. For the tropical Atlantic from 02N to 22N between 40W and the Lesser Antilles, moderate to fresh NE to ENE winds with 7 to 9 ft seas dominate. From 02N to 20N west of 35W, moderate to fresh NE winds and seas at 6 to 8 ft in moderate NE swells exist. Light to gentle NE to E winds with 6 to 8 ft seas in mixed moderate swells prevail for the remainder of the Atlantic Ocean. For the forecast, building high pressure over the western Atlantic will support increasing moderate to fresh NE to E winds and building seas north of 20N today. A tightening pressure gradient between the aforementioned ridge and low pressure moving across the eastern United States will lead to fresh to strong S to SW winds offshore of Florida, generally north of 28N and west of 65W, this afternoon through Sat morning. Winds will diminish by Sat afternoon in this region as the low moves offshore and lifts to the northeast. Elsewhere, fresh to strong E winds and rough seas will continue south of 22N through the beginning of next week. Gentle to moderate winds and moderate seas are forecast for the waters north of 22N Sun into early next week. $$ Chan