000 AXNT20 KNHC 290820 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1215 UTC Wed Jan 29 2025 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0800 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Caribbean Sea Gale Warning: A tight pressure gradient over the central Caribbean will support pulsing gale-force winds offshore northern Colombia during the overnight hours beginning tonight and possibly continuing through the next several days. Seas will build during the strongest winds, peaking at around 14 ft Thu night when winds may be up to 40 kt. Please refer to the latest NWS High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at the website: www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough passes through the southern coastal sections of Sierra Leone and Liberia to the coast near 07N12W, continuing offshore and southwestward in the Atlantic to 04N20W. The ITCZ extends from 04N20W to the Equator at 28W, then to just off the northern coast of Brazil at 23.5S37W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from roughly 01S to 07N between 25W and 38W. ...GULF OF MEXICO... High pressure 1021 mb is centered in the NE Gulf near 27N85.5W while an old front has lifted northward from just south of the Panhandle of Florida to 1015 mb low pressure in the Texas coastal waters near 27N97W. Earlier scatterometer data matches the forecast initialization with light to gentle anticyclonic winds in the NE Gulf under the high, with mainly gentle to moderate winds elsewhere in the basin. Seas are 2 ft or less under the high, and 2 to 3 ft elsewhere. Some locally dense fog may reduce visibilities to 1 nm or less within 20 nm of shore from south- central Louisiana west of 91W to the entire Texas coastal waters through the morning hours before burning off. A marine dense fog advisory is in effect for those near shore waters. For the forecast, fresh to strong southerly winds and rough seas will follow in the wake of the front as it continues to lift northward tonight and Thu, in response to the low which will move from northeast Mexico into the U.S. Southern Plains. A new, trailing cold front will move into the northwest Gulf Thu night, reach from near Panama City, Florida to Veracruz, Mexico by late Fri, then stall and dissipate from near the Florida Keys to Coatzacoalcos, Mexico by late Sat. Moderate to locally fresh northerly winds will follow that front, locally strong offshore Veracruz. Winds behind the front will diminish Sat night with tranquil conditions expected across the basin Sun into at least Sun night. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... Please refer to the Special Features section for details on a Gale Warning in effect off the coast of Colombia. Fresh to strong winds are in the lee of eastern Cuba, and in the south-central Caribbean as described more above, with mainly moderate to locally fresh trades elsewhere as seen by earlier ASCAT scatterometer data. Seas are 7 to 10 ft offshore northern Colombia near the strongest winds which are peaking around 30 kt, and 4 to 7 ft elsewhere in the central Caribbean. Seas of 4 to 6 ft prevail across the remainder of the basin. Some isolated to widely scattered showers are embedded in the trade wind flow in the eastern Caribbean, as well as from SW Haiti to eastern Jamaica to offshore far eastern Honduras and northern Nicaragua per conventional satellite imagery. For the forecast, winds will pulse to gale force off Colombia at times, mainly at night, tonight through the weekend. Fresh to strong trade winds and moderate to rough seas will persist elsewhere across the central Caribbean, with fresh to strong NE winds across the Windward Passage and in the lee of Cuba through early Fri, and in the Gulf of Honduras Thu night through Fri night. Meanwhile, long-period east swell will continue to produce locally rough seas through much of the week in the tropical Atlantic waters east of the Windward and Leeward Islands and their passages into the Caribbean, with northerly swell arriving this weekend helping to reinforce rough seas. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... A cold front currently reaches from SE of Bermuda near 31N61W to near Cape Canaveral, Florida, just north of the northern Bahamas. Moderate to fresh W to NW winds are in the wake of the front, with seas of 6 to 9 ft. Some isolated to widely scattered showers and thunderstorms are seen displaced ahead of the front, between 210 nm and 480 nm north of 27N, possibly associated with a diffuse pre- frontal trough. A pesky trough is to the south of the front, analyzed from 26N66W to the western Dominican Republic. Scattered showers are likely within 60 to 90 nm either side of the trough per convectional satellite imagery. Mainly gentle variable winds are west of about 60W and south of the front, except moderate to locally fresh south of 22N and west of the trough through the Windward Passage. Seas are mainly 4 to 6 ft across these waters. The rest of the tropical Atlantic is dominated by persistent high pressure, 1033 mb at 06z, analyzed just north of the discussion waters by the Ocean Prediction Center at 32.5N31W. Moderate to fresh trades dominate the waters east of 60W, locally strong from the Madeira Islands west-southwestward all the way to the Lesser Antilles. Seas of 6 to 11 ft accompany these winds, locally 12 ft near 20N35W, with even higher seas of 12 to 17 ft seen east of 16W in NW swell generated by a storm force low moving toward the coast of France. For the forecast west of 55W, the cold front will weaken today ahead of a second, stronger front expected to move into the waters between northeast Florida and Bermuda tonight into Thu. The second front will stall and weaken, and merge with the old front, along roughly 24N into the central Bahamas by early Fri, as high pressure builds off the Carolinas in the wake of the front. The high pressure will shift eastward Fri, allowing fresh to locally strong southerly wind and locally rough seas off northeast Florida and south of 22N into Sat. Large NW swell will follow the front across the waters east of 70W Fri and Sat, while yet another front may move into the NW waters Sat where it will stall and dissipate into Sun. Looking ahead to Sun, high pressure along 30N will support gentle breezes north of 24N, and moderate to fresh E winds and moderate to rough seas in E swell south of 24N. $$ Lewitsky