329 AXNT20 KNHC 290614 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0615 UTC Wed Jan 29 2025 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0600 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... ...CARIBBEAN SEA GALE-FORCE WIND WARNING... A tight surface pressure gradient, that is in the central sections of the Caribbean Sea, will support pulsing gale-force winds offshore northern Colombia, including in the Gulf of Venezuela, from 10N to 14N between 70W and 77W. The gale-force winds will be present during the overnight hours, beginning on Wednesday night and possibly continuing through the next several days. Expect rough seas from 73W westward. Please, refer to the latest NWS High Seas Forecast, that is issued by the National Hurricane Center, at the website: www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough passes through the southern coastal sections of Sierra Leone, to 04N20W. The ITCZ continues from 04N20W, to the Equator along 28W, to 03S36W. Precipitation: scattered moderate to isolated strong is: from 03N southward from 03W eastward; from 05N southward between 07W and 15W; and from 02N to 08N between 43W and 53W. ...GULF OF MEXICO... A stationary front is along 27N/28N from Florida to Texas. Moderate to fresh S to SE winds are in the western half of the Gulf of Mexico, and in the SE quadrant of the Gulf. Gentle winds are in the NE quadrant of the Gulf of Mexico. Slight seas span the entire area. A weak front is stalling from near Punta Gorda, Florida to the NW Gulf coastal waters near 28N96W to near Brownsville, Texas. Fresh to strong southerly winds and rough seas will follow the western portion of the front as it lifts northward Wed night and Thu, in response to developing low pressure moving from northeast Mexico into the U.S. Southern Plains. A new, trailing cold front will move into the northwest Gulf Thu night, reach from near Panama City, Florida to Veracruz, Mexico by late Fri, then stall and dissipate from near the Florida Keys to Coatzacoalcos, Mexico by late Sat. Moderate to locally fresh northerly winds will follow that front, locally strong offshore Veracruz. Winds behind the front will diminish Sat night with tranquil conditions expected across the basin Sun. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... Please, refer to the SPECIAL FEATURES section, for details about a Gale-Force Wind Warning that is covering the coastal waters of Colombia, including in the Gulf of Venezuela. The warning is forecast to start on Wednesday night. A north-to-south oriented surface trough is along 25N70W, through the SE parts of the Bahamas, through SW Dominican Republic, to 16N71W in the Caribbean Sea. Moderate to fresh NE to E winds cover the Caribbean Sea. Moderate seas are from 80W eastward. Slight seas are elsewhere in the Caribbean Sea. Winds will pulse to gale force off Colombia, mainly at night, Wed night through early next week. Fresh to strong trade winds and moderate to rough seas will persist elsewhere across the central Caribbean, with fresh to strong NE winds across the Windward Passage and in the lee of Cuba through early Fri, and in the Gulf of Honduras Thu night through Fri night. Meanwhile, long- period east swell will continue to produce locally rough seas through much of the week in the tropical Atlantic waters east of the Windward and Leeward Islands and their passages into the Caribbean, with northerly swell arriving this weekend helping to reinforce rough seas. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... A dissipating cold front is along 31N70W, to the eastern coast of Florida near 28N. A north-to-south oriented surface trough is along 31N67W 25N70W, through the SE parts of the Bahamas, through SW Dominican Republic, to 16N71W in the Caribbean Sea. Precipitation: scattered moderate to isolated strong is from 29N northward between 50W and 62W. Strong NE winds, and rough seas, are from 18N to 23N between 26W and 35W. Rough seas are elsewhere from 10N to 27N from 35W eastward. Fresh to strong NE winds are within 600 nm to 750 nm on either side of 23N25W 15N41W 12N54W. Fresh SE winds are from 17N northward between 48W and 62W. Moderate to fresh anticyclonic wind flow is on the northern side of the area of fresh to strong winds, from 58W eastward. Moderate to fresh cyclonic wind flow is from 26N northward from 58W westward. Moderate seas are in the remainder of the Atlantic Ocean. Broad surface anticyclonic wind flow is from 10N northward from 60W eastward. One 1034 mb high pressure center is close to 33N35W. A second 1034 mb high pressure center is close to 33N21W. A cold front currently reaching from just NW of Bermuda to the northern Bahamas will weaken by early Wed ahead of a second, stronger front expected to move into the waters between northeast Florida and Bermuda Wed night into Thu. The second front will stall and weaken along roughly 24N into the central Bahamas by early Fri, as high pressure builds off the Carolinas in the wake of the front. The high pressure will shift eastward Fri, allowing fresh to locally strong southerly wind and locally rough seas off northeast Florida and south of 22N into Sat. Large NW swell will follow the front across the waters east of 70W Fri and Sat. Looking ahead to Sun, high pressure along 30N will support gentle breezes north of 24N, and moderate to fresh E winds and moderate to rough seas in E swell south of 24N. $$ mt/jl