000 AXNT20 KNHC 282353 AAA TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion...Updated NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0015 UTC Wed Jan 29 2025 Updated for Special Features Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2330 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Caribbean Sea Gale Warning: A tight pressure gradient over the central Caribbean will support pulsing gale-force winds offshore northern Colombia during the overnight hours beginning Wed night and possibly continuing through the next several days. Seas will build to at least 12 ft during the strongest winds. Please refer to the latest NWS High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at the website: www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough is inland over Africa. The ITCZ extends from 06N11W to 02N33W to 03N51W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 01N to 08N between 10W and 52W. ...GULF OF MEXICO... A weak cold front extending from Sarasota, FL to 27N87W, where the front becomes stationary to a 1017 mb low pres near 27N95W to northern Mexico just south of Brownsville, TX. Some scattered showers are found near either side of the front with an isolated thunderstorms possible. Light to gentle winds prevail across the basin with seas 2 to 4 ft. For the forecast, fresh to strong southerly winds and rough seas will follow the western portion of the weak front as it lifts northward Wed night and Thu, in response to developing low pressure moving from northeast Mexico into the U.S. Southern Plains. A new, trailing cold front will move into the northwest Gulf Thu night, reach from near Panama City, Florida to Veracruz, Mexico by late Fri, then stall from near the Florida Keys to Coatzacoalcos, Mexico by late Sat. Moderate to locally fresh northerly winds will follow that front, locally strong offshore Veracruz. Winds behind the front will diminish Sat night. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... Please refer to the Special Features section for details on a Gale Warning in effect off the coast of Colombia. A tight pressure gradient is over the central Caribbean between lower pressure over northern Colombia and high pressure positioned north of the basin. Fresh to strong winds are in the central portion with 6 to 8 ft seas. Moderate to locally fresh trades dominate the remainder of the basin. Seas are 4 to 6 ft in the NW Caribbean, and 5 to 7 ft across the remainder of the waters. For the forecast, winds will pulse to gale force off Colombia, mainly at night, through early next week. Fresh to strong trade winds and moderate to rough seas will persist elsewhere across the central Caribbean, with fresh to strong NE winds across the Windward Passage and in the lee of Cuba late Wed through early Fri. Meanwhile, long-period east swell will continue to produce locally rough seas through much of the week in the tropical Atlantic waters east of the Windward and Leeward Islands and their passages into the Caribbean, with northerly swell arriving this weekend helping to reinforce rough seas. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... A cold front extends from 31N70W to Port St. Lucie, FL. A trough extends from 31N63W to 25N73W. Moderate to fresh W winds and moderate 5 to 9 ft are found north of 27N, west of 64W. Gentle breezes and slight seas are east of the trough. There is a 1033 mb high pressure located well to the east of the trough near 33N18W and is the dominant feature across the open waters. Fresh to strong trades are noted south of 30N from Mauritania to the Lesser Antilles. Seas in this area are 8 to 11 ft. Northeast of the Canary Islands, seas are 11 to 15 ft in northerly swell. For the forecast west of 55W, the aforementioned cold front will weaken as it reaches from Bermuda to the northern Bahamas early Wed, then weaken further thereafter ahead of a second, stronger front expected to move into the waters between northeast Florida and Bermuda Thu. The second front will stall and weaken along roughly 24N into the central Bahamas by early Fri, as high pressure builds off the Carolinas in the wake of the front. The high pressure will shift eastward Fri, allowing fresh to locally strong southerly wind and locally rough seas off northeast Florida and south of 22N into Sat. Large NW swell will follow the front across the waters east of 70W Fri and Sat. Looking ahead to Sun, high pressure along 30N will support gentle breezes north of 24N, and moderate to fresh E winds and moderate to rough seas in E swell south of 24N. $$ AReinhart