794 AXNT20 KNHC 280914 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1215 UTC Tue Jan 28 2025 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0800 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Caribbean Sea Gale Warning: The pressure gradient will tighten across the Caribbean mid-week through the end of the week as high pressure north of the basin strengthens and low pressure deepens slightly over northern Colombia. Fresh to strong winds there are forecast to pulse to minimal gale-force Wed night right near the coast of northern Colombia, with gale-force winds possible again Thu night. Seas may build to 10 to 12 ft Wed night, then 11 to 14 ft Thu night. Please refer to the latest NWS High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at the website: www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough passes through the coastal plains of Liberia near 05N09W to 02N14.5W. The ITCZ extends from 02N14.5W to the Equator at 24W. Scattered moderate convection is found from roughly 01S to 07N between 25W and 38W. ...GULF OF MEXICO... A weak cold front extending from northern Florida to the north- central Gulf near 28N89W has stalled as it continues westward to near Corpus Christi, Texas. Some scattered showers are found near either side of the front with an isolated thunderstorms possible. Showers are also noted north of the Yucatan Channel, and in the SW Gulf and Bay of Campeche. Moderate to locally fresh winds are in the Gulf south of 24.5N and east of 93W along with 2 3 to 4 ft seas, with mainly gentle to locally moderate winds elsewhere, including on either side of the front, along with seas of 3 ft or less. For the forecast, fresh to strong southerly winds and rough seas will follow the western portion of the front as it lifts northward Wed night and Thu, in response to developing low pressure over northeast Mexico and moving into the U.S. Southern Plains. A new, trailing cold front will move into the northwest Gulf Thu night, reach from near Panama City, Florida to Veracruz, Mexico by late Fri, then stall from near the Florida Keys to Coatzacoalcos, Mexico by late Sat. Moderate to locally fresh northerly winds will follow that front, locally strong offshore Veracruz. Winds behind the front will diminish Sat night. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... Please refer to the Special Features section for details on a Gale Warning in effect off the coast of Colombia. A tight pressure gradient is over the central Caribbean between lower pressure over northern Colombia and high pressure positioned north of the basin. Fresh to strong winds are in the central portion with 6 to 8 ft seas, locally 7 to 10 ft near the coast of Colombia. Moderate to locally fresh trades dominate the remainder of the basin. Seas are 3 to 5 ft in the NW Caribbean, and 4 to 7 ft across the remainder of the waters. Isolated showers are moving through the far eastern Caribbean as well as near the Gulf of Honduras, with scattered showers south of Hispaniola to 15N. For the forecast, fresh trade winds will persist across the central Caribbean through mid week, with strong winds pulsing off Colombia, and also in the lee of Cuba beginning there tonight. Winds will pulse to minimal gale-force Wed night and Thu night off Colombia. Winds and seas will increase over much of the Caribbean including the Windward Passage by Thu as high pressure builds north of the area. Meanwhile, long-period east swell will continue to produce locally rough seas through much of the week in the tropical Atlantic waters east of the Windward and Leeward Islands and their passages into the Caribbean, with northerly swell arriving this weekend helping to reinforce rough seas. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... A trough extending from 31N58W to the Windward Passage and high pressure east of the trough is supporting moderate to fresh E winds and moderate seas south of 27N, except rough seas south of 22N. Gentle breezes and slight seas are west of the trough, except north of 29N and west of 70W where SW winds have increased to fresh to strong near an approaching cold front. That high is located well to the east of the trough near 30N33W at 1030 mb and is the dominant feature across the open waters. Fresh to locally strong trades are south of the Canary and Madeira Islands to 27N35W to near the NE Caribbean, with gentle to moderate anticyclonic flow to the north and under the ridging. Seas are 8 to 11 ft in mainly NE to E swell from south of 29N35W to the near the NE Caribbean, and 4 to 7 ft north and west of there. To the east of 35W, 7 to 11 ft seas in a mixed of NE to E and NW swell prevail, except north of 28N and east of 20W where they are building to 10 to 14 ft in northerly swell. For the forecast west of 55W, the front will move into the waters off northeast Florida later this morning, then weaken as it reaches from Bermuda to the northern Bahamas early Wed, then further weaken thereafter ahead of a second, stronger front expected to move into the waters between northeast Florida and Bermuda Thu. The second front will stall and weaken along roughly 24N into the central Bahamas by early Fri, as high pressure builds off the Carolinas in the wake of the front. Looking ahead, the high pressure will shift eastward Fri, allowing fresh to locally strong southerly wind and locally rough seas off northeast Florida and south of 22N into Sat. $$ Lewitsky