654 AXNT20 KNHC 280603 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0615 UTC Tue Jan 28 2025 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0540 UTC. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough passes through the coastal plains of Liberia close to 05N09W, to 02N14W. The ITCZ continues from 02N14W, to the Equator along 24W. Precipitation: isolated moderate to locally strong is to the south of the line, from 04N at the Prime Meridian, to 04N10W 07N24W 09N33W 08N43W 10N55W 10N60W. ...GULF OF MEXICO... A cold front is passing through the Florida Panhandle, into the north central Gulf of Mexico, to a 1018 mb Texas coastal plains low pressure center. the cold front continues into NE Mexico to 25N99W. Moderate or slower winds, and slight seas, cover the Gulf of Mexico. A weak cold front from near Tallahassee, Florida to near Brownsville, Texas will stall from central Florida to south Texas through mid week. Fresh to strong southerly winds and rough seas will follow the western portion of the front as it lifts northward Thu, in response to developing low pressure over northeast Mexico and moving into the U.S. Southern Plains. A new, trailing cold front will move into the northwest Gulf Thu night, reach from near Panama City, Florida to Veracruz, Mexico by late Fri, then stall from near Naples, Florida to Coatzacoalcos, Mexico by late Sat. Moderate to locally fresh northerly winds will follow that front, locally strong offshore Veracruz. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... A surface trough curves through 25N70W in the Atlantic Ocean, through the SE Bahamas and Haiti, to just offshore SW Haiti. Precipitation: broken to overcast multilayered clouds, and possible rainshowers, are from 14N northward between the Mona Passage and the Windward Passage. Strong to near gale-force NE to E winds, and moderate to rough seas, are in the Gulf of Venezuela. Fresh to strong cyclonic wind flow, and mostly moderate to near rough seas, are from 16N southward between 68W and 77W. Fresh NE to E winds, and moderate seas, are elsewhere from 80W eastward. Moderate to fresh NE winds, and slight to moderate seas, are from 80W westward. Fresh trade winds will persist across the central Caribbean through mid week, with strong winds pulsing off Colombia, and in the lee of Cuba beginning Tue night. Winds will pulse to minimal gale-force Wed night and Thu night off Colombia. Winds and seas will increase over much of the Caribbean including the Windward Passage by Thu as high pressure builds north of the area. Meanwhile, long-period east swell will continue to produce locally rough seas through much of the week in the tropical Atlantic waters east of the Windward and Leeward Islands and their passages into the Caribbean, with northerly swell arriving this weekend helping to reinforce rough seas. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... A surface trough curves through 31N58W to 29N60W, 25N70W, through the SE Bahamas and Haiti, to just offshore SW Haiti. Slight to moderate seas are from 70W westward. Moderate to fresh E to SE winds are from 20N to 26N between 55W and 70W. Moderate or slower winds are elsewhere from 20N northward from 50W westward. Fresh to strong SW winds are from 30N northward from 72W westward. Moderate seas are from 20N northward between 35W and 70W. Rough seas are from 10N to 20N from 60W eastward. Moderate seas are in the remainder of the Atlantic Ocean. Fresh to strong NE winds are within 550 nm to 750 nm on either side of 26N15W 19N26W 15N39W 12N52W. Moderate NE winds are from 21N southward between 52W and 60W. Mostly fresh and some moderate anticyclonic wind flow is from 21N to 25N between 52W and 70W. Moderate or slower winds are in the remainder of the Atlantic Ocean. A 1030 mb high pressure center is close to 30N37W. Surface anticyclonic wind flow is from 14N northward from the 31N58W-to- Haiti surface trough eastward. 1024 mb high pressure is centered near 29.5N68, west of a a trough that extends from 31N58W to the Windward Passage. This pattern is supporting moderate to fresh E winds and moderate seas south of 27N, and gentle breezes and slight seas north of 27N. The high pressure and trough will dissipate tonight ahead of a cold front that will move into the waters off northeast Florida by early Tue. The front weaken as it reaches from Bermuda to the northern Bahamas early Wed, then weaken thereafter ahead of a second, stronger front expected to move into the waters between northeast Florida and Bermuda Thu. The second front will stall and weaken along roughly 24N into the central Bahamas by early Fri, as high pressure builds off the Carolinas in the wake of the front. Looking ahead, the high pressure will shift eastward Fri, allowing fresh to locally strong southerly wind and locally rough seas off northeast Florida and south of 22N into Sat. $$ mt/jl