000 AXNT20 KNHC 081015 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1215 UTC Wed Jan 8 2025 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1000 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Atlantic Gale Warnings: N of 30N, gale force winds are mainly ahead of a strong cold front that extends from 31N54W to 21N77W. These gales extend E to around 50W and are accompanied by seas to 18 ft. Gales will spread east with the front. Gale force winds will end by this morning while the fresh to strong winds move east of 55W later on Wed. Significant swell greater than 12 ft will continue moving in behind the front. A reinforcing cold front may bring another round of gale-force winds to the offshore waters N of 29N and E of 65W by Thu into Fri. This will also reinforce the swell event, with very rough to high seas persisting in waters N of 18N and E of 77W through the weekend. Atlantic Significant Swell Event: Large, long period NW swell with period of 14 to 16 seconds continues to propagate across the central subtropical Atlantic. Peak seas along 31N between 35W and 50W are to 16 ft, with seas in excess of 12 ft extending north of 21N between 30W and 72W. Additional significant swell, partially associated with the cold front depicted the the Atlantic Gale Warning Special Feature section above, will propagate into the region and prolong the very rough seas through late this week. Gulf of Mexico Gale Warning: A low pres system is expected to develop along a trough axis over the NW Gulf on Thu, with a potential cold front forming by Fri. This system is expected to bring strong to gale-force winds and rough seas across the northern half of the basin for a brief period of time on Thu night as the low and front move E. Please refer to the latest NWS High Seas Forecast, issued by the National Hurricane Center, at the website: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml, for more details on the areas above. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough remains inland over Africa. The ITCZ extends from near 06N11W to the coast of Brazil near 02S42W. Scattered showers are in the vicinity of the ITCZ. GULF OF MEXICO... Refer to the section above for details on the Gale Warning expected over the northern Gulf Waters. Strong NW winds continue offshore Veracruz due to a tight pressure gradient in the area. Strong NE winds are also found in the NW Gulf of Mexico offshore Texas. Moderate to fresh NE winds are analyzed in remaining Gulf waters, as high pressure build south across the region. Seas are 4-7 ft across the basin, with locally 8 ft seas in the strong winds offshore Veracruz. For the forecast, a trough will develop over the western Gulf today, tightening the pressure gradient and supporting fresh to strong winds on either side of the trough axis through Thu. A low pres is expected to develop and intensify along the trough over the NW Gulf on Thu. This system is expected to bring strong to gale-force winds and rough seas across the northern half of the basin on Thu night. CARIBBEAN SEA... A cold front located in the NW Caribbean extends from eastern Cuba to central Belize. Moderate to fresh NE winds follow the front, with 4-7 ft seas. Moderate to fresh NE winds are also noted ahead of the front, south of Jamaica. Fresh to strong E to NE winds are in the south central Caribbean off the coast of Colombia, as verified by satellite scatterometer data. Seas in this area peak to 9 ft. Elsewhere, trades are gentle to moderate in the Caribbean. Seas are 4-7 ft. For the forecast, the front is forecast to continue moving E while weakening, then dissipate by tonight. Moderate to fresh N to NE winds and moderate seas are expected behind the front. High pressure will build in the wake of the front, supporting moderate to fresh NE winds in the NW Caribbean through Fri. Fresh to strong winds pulse in the south central Caribbean through the forecast period. ATLANTIC OCEAN... Please refer to the Special Features section above for information on the Gale Warnings for portions of the western Atlantic and a Significant Swell event to the east. Seas in excess of 8 ft are north of 25N between 57W and 75W in the western Atlantic, moderate N to NW winds prevail outside of this area with 4-7 ft seas. All tropical and subtropical Atlantic Waters east of 57W are analyzed to have seas greater than 8 ft, increasing with latitude and proximity to the above described special features. Trades are moderate to fresh south of 15N, and mainly gentle north of 15N. Satellite scatterometer indicates a ridge axis with weak winds is along 21N in the central Atlantic. For the forecast west of 55W, near-gale winds will prevail in the vicinity of the west-central Atlantic front mainly N of 30N through this morning. Meanwhile, a swell event with with very rough seas will persist across the waters through tonight N of 27N. A reinforcing cold front may bring another round of gale- force winds to the offshore waters N of 29N and E of 65W by Thu into Fri. This will also reinforce the swell event, with very rough to high seas persisting in waters N of 18N and E of 77W through the weekend. A third frontal system this weekend could bring another round of increasing winds and seas. $$ ERA