652 AXNT20 KNHC 080442 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0615 UTC Wed Jan 8 2025 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0430 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Atlantic Gale Warnings: N of 30N, gale force winds are mainly ahead of a strong cold front that extends from east of Bermuda near 31N58W to central Cuba near 22N77W. These gales extend E to around 55W and are accompanied by seas to 16 ft. Gales will spread east with the front. The front will extend from 31N50W to 24N70W Wed morning. Gale force winds will end by early Wed morning while the fresh to strong winds move east of 55W later on Wed. Significant swell greater than 12 ft will continue moving in behind the front. A reinforcing cold front may bring another round of gale- force winds to the offshore waters N of 29N and E of 65W by Thu into Fri. This will also reinforce the swell event, with very rough to high seas persisting in waters N of 18N and E of 77W through the weekend. Atlantic Significant Swell Event: Large, long period NW swell with period of 14 to 17 seconds continues to propagate across the central subtropical Atlantic in the wake of a cold front currently analyzed from 31N25W to 27N33W where it continues as a remnant frontal trough to 21N54W. Peak seas along 31N between 35W and 50W are to 16 ft, with seas in excess of 12 ft extending north of 21N between 23W and 72W. Additional significant swell, partially associated with the cold front depicted the the Atlantic Gale Warning Special Feature section above, will propagate into the region and prolong the very rough seas through at least late this week. Please refer to the latest NWS High Seas Forecast, issued by the National Hurricane Center, at the website: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml, for more details on the areas above. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough remains inland over Africa. The ITCZ extends from near 06N10W to the coast of Brazil near 03S42W. Scattered showers are in the vicinity of the ITCZ. GULF OF MEXICO... Strong NW winds continue offshore Veracruz due to a locally tight pressure gradient. Strong NE winds are also found in the NW Gulf of Mexico offshore Texas. Moderate to fresh NE winds are analyzed in remaining Gulf waters, as high pressure build south across the region. Seas are 4-7 ft across the basin, with locally 8 ft seas in the strong winds offshore Veracruz. For the forecast, strong N to NW winds will prevail across the western Bay of Campeche through tonight. High pressure will continue to build, resulting in moderate to fresh N to NE winds across the remainder of the basin. A trough will develop over the western Gulf by Wed, tightening the pressure gradient and supporting fresh to strong winds on either side of the trough axis through Thu. A low may develop along the trough axis over the NW Gulf by Thu, with a potential cold front forming by Fri. This system is expected to bring fresh to strong winds and increasing seas across the basin. CARIBBEAN SEA... A cold front located in the NW Caribbean extends from central Cuba to northern Belize. Moderate to fresh NE winds follow the front, with 4-7 ft seas. Moderate to fresh NE winds are also noted ahead of the front, south of Jamaica. Fresh to locally strong E to NE winds are in the south central Caribbean off the coast of Colombia, as detected by satellite scatterometer data. Seas in this area peak to 8 ft. Elsewhere, trades are gentle to moderate in the Caribbean. Seas are 4-7 ft. For the forecast, the front is forecast to continue moving E while weakening, then dissipate by Wed night. Moderate to fresh N to NE winds and moderate seas are expected behind the front. High pressure will build in the wake of the front, supporting moderate to fresh NE winds in the NW Caribbean through Fri. Fresh to strong winds pulse in the south central Caribbean through the forecast period. ATLANTIC OCEAN... Please refer to the Special Features section above for information on the Gale Warnings for portions of the western Atlantic and a Significant Swell event to the east. Seas in excess of 8 ft are north of 25N between 57W and 75W in the western Atlantic; moderate N to NW winds prevail outside of this area with 4-7 ft seas. All tropical and subtropical Atlantic Waters east of 57W are analyzed to have seas greater than 8 ft, increasing with latitude and proximity to the above described special features. Trades are moderate to fresh south of 15N, and mainly gentle north of 15N. Satellite scatterometer indicates a ridge axis with weak winds is along 23N in the central Atlantic. For the forecast west of 55W, the currently gale-force front will extend from 31N50W to 24N70W Wed morning. Gale force winds will end by early Wed morning while the fresh to strong winds move east of 55W later on Wed. Meanwhile, a swell event with with very rough seas will persist across the waters through Wed night N of 27N. A reinforcing cold front may bring another round of gale- force winds to the offshore waters N of 29N and E of 65W by Thu into Fri. This will also reinforce the swell event, with very rough to high seas persisting in waters N of 18N and E of 77W through the weekend. A third frontal system this weekend could bring increasing winds and seas. $$ Mahoney