996 AXNT20 KNHC 072150 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0015 UTC Wed Jan 8 2025 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2100 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Atlantic Gale Warnings: N of 30N, gale force winds are mainly ahead of a strong cold front that extends from east of Bermuda near 31N62.5W to central Cuba near 22N79W. These gales extend E to around 59W and are accompanied by seas of up to 16 ft. Meanwhile, surrounding fresh to strong winds cover the waters north of 25N and west of 45W. Gales will spread east as the front progresses. The front will extend from 31N50W to 24N70W Wed morning when the gales will diminish. Significant swell greater than 12 ft will continue moving in behind the front. Looking ahead, another cold front is forecast to bring a threat of gale conditions starting Thu afternoon when that next front is forecast to reach from 31N63W to 25N73W. Atlantic Significant Swell Event: Large, long period NW swell with period of 14 to 17 seconds continues to propagate across the central subtropical Atlantic in the wake of a cold front currently analyzed from 31N28W to 27N34W where it continues as a remnant frontal trough to 21.5N55W. Peak seas along 31N between 35W and 50W are near 19 to 20 ft, with seas in excess of 12 ft extending south to 21N between 26W and 60W. Additional significant swell, partially associated with the cold front depicted the the Atlantic Gale Warning Special Feature section above, will propagate into the region, prolonging the very rough seas through at least late week. Please refer to the latest NWS High Seas Forecast, issued by the National Hurricane Center, at the website: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml, for more details on the areas above. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough remains inland over Africa. The ITCZ extends from near 06N10W to the Equator near 32W, then continuing to the coast of Brazil near 03S42W. Widely scattered moderate convection is noted within 360 nm of the entire boundary, mainly to the north of it. GULF OF MEXICO... Strong NW to N winds are offshore Veracruz due to a lingering and locally tight pressure gradient, with moderate to locally fresh northerly winds across the remainder of the Gulf in the wake of a cold front that passed through the region last night. Seas are 6 to 9 ft in remnant northerly swell across the southeast half of the Gulf, and 4 to 7 ft across the northwest half of the Gulf. For the forecast, strong N to NW winds will prevail across the western Bay of Campeche through tonight. High pressure will build in the wake of the front producing moderate to fresh N to NE winds across the remainder of the basin. A trough will develop over the western Gulf by Wed, tightening the pressure gradient and supporting fresh to strong winds on either side of the trough axis through Thu. A low may develop along the trough axis over the NW Gulf by Thu, with a potential cold front forming by Fri. This system is expected to bring fresh to strong winds and increasing seas across the basin. CARIBBEAN SEA... A cold front has pushed into the NW Caribbean extending from Central Cuba to near northern Belize. Moderate to fresh northerly winds are behind the front, along with 5 to 8 ft seas in NW-N swell, highest near the Yucatan Channel. Winds are mainly moderate elsewhere in the Caribbean, except fresh in the south-central portion due to the normal, locally tight pressure gradient. Seas are 4 to 7 ft south of 18N and east of 83W, with 2 to 4 ft seas northwest of there, just to the southeast of the front. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are ongoing just offshore Nicaragua, Costa Rica, and Panama mainly due to coastal convergence. For the forecast, the front is forecast to extend from central Cuba to southern Belize tonight, and slowly dissipate by Wed night. Moderate to fresh N to NE winds and moderate seas are expected behind the front. High pressure will build in the wake of the front, supporting moderate to fresh NE winds in the NW Caribbean through Fri. Fresh to strong winds pulse in the south central Caribbean through the forecast period. ATLANTIC OCEAN... Please refer to the Special Features section above for information on the Gale Warnings for portions of the western Atlantic and a Significant Swell event to the east. Aside from the areas in the Special Features section, ridging dominates the remainder of the eastern subtropical Atlantic, extending from the Iberian Peninsula to across the Canary Islands, all the way to near the Turks and Caicos Islands. This is leading to gentle to moderate anticyclonic winds right under the ridge, with moderate to fresh trades to the south of it from the west- central coast of Africa through the Cabo Verde Islands, to the waters south of 16N and east of the Caribbean Islands. While large, NW swells dominate most of the basin, as described in the Special Features section, seas are 5 to 7 ft across the remainder of the waters over far eastern/southeastern portions of the discussion area. For the forecast west of 55W, the currently gale-force front will extend from 31N50W to 24N70W Wed morning. Gale force winds will end early Wed morning while the fresh to strong winds move east of 55W later on Wed. Meanwhile, a swell event with with very rough seas will persist across the waters through Wed night north of 27N. A reinforcing cold front is forecast to bring another round of gale-force winds to the offshore waters north of 29N and east of 65W by Thu into Fri. This will also reinforce the swell event, with very rough to high seas persisting in waters north of 18N and east of 77W through the weekend. A third frontal system this weekend could bring yet another round of increasing winds and seas. $$ Lewitsky