090 AXNT20 KNHC 071750 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1815 UTC Tue Jan 7 2025 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1800 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Atlantic Gale Warning: N of 30N, gale force winds have developed mainly ahead of a strong cold front that extends from 31N68W to NW Cuba. These gales extend E to around 63W and are accompanied by seas of up to 16 ft. Gales will spread east as the front progresses, with the boundary reaching from 31N58W to central Cuba by this evening. Gales will end tonight as the front begins to weaken, but significant northerly swell will continue to spread into area waters into late week, bringing seas of 12 to 20 ft N of 23N. Looking ahead, another cold front may bring a threat of gale conditions late this week. Atlantic Significant Swell Event: Large, long period NW swell with period of 14 to 16 seconds continues to propagate across the central subtropical Atlantic in the wake of a cold front that currently extends from 31N30W to 26N36W. Peak seas along 31N, E of 60W, are near 19-20 ft, with seas in excess of 12 ft extending S to 23N between 25W and 60W. Additional significant swell, partially associated with the cold front depicted the the Atlantic Gale Warning Special Feature section above, will propagate into the region by Wed, prolonging the very rough seas through late week. Please refer to the latest NWS High Seas Forecast, issued by the National Hurricane Center, at the website: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml, for more details on the areas above. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough remains inland over Africa. The ITCZ extends from near 06N11W to 01N50W. Scattered moderate convection is noted along the whole boundary. GULF OF MEXICO... Strong N to NW winds prevail across the W Bay of Campeche, while fresh to strong N to NW winds prevail across the remainder of the Gulf in the wake of a cold front that passed through the region last night. Rough seas are noted across the central and southwestern portions of the basin, while moderate seas prevail across surrounding areas. For the forecast, strong N to NW winds will prevail today across the Bay of Campeche in the wake of a cold front that currently extends across the Yucatan Channel to southwestern Florida. High pressure will build in the wake of the front producing moderate to fresh N to NE winds across the remainder of the basin. A trough will develop over the western Gulf on Wed, tightening the pressure gradient and supporting fresh to strong winds on either side of the trough axis. A low may develop along the trough axis over the NW Gulf by Thu, bringing increasing winds and seas. CARIBBEAN SEA... The pressure gradient between the seasonal mid-latitude high pressure centers and the lower pressure of the deep tropics is leading to fresh to strong NE to E winds across the central and eastern Caribbean. Strong winds are pulsing over the waters offshore Colombia, as well as through the Yucatan Channel. Moderate trades prevail in the SW basin, with gentle to moderate winds in the NW. Seas are 4 to 7 ft, except 3 to 5 ft in the NW Caribbean. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are ongoing just offshore Nicaragua, Costa Rica, and Panama mainly due to coastal convergence. For the forecast, fresh to strong winds in the central Caribbean will diminish this morning as high pressure N of the area shifts eastward ahead of the cold front stretching across the NW Caribbean. The front is forecast to reach from central Cuba to Belize by this evening, and from the Windward Passage to the Gulf of Honduras by Wed morning before dissipating Wed night. Moderate to fresh N to NE winds and moderate seas are expected behind the front. High pressure will build in the wake of the front, supporting moderate to fresh NE winds in the NW Caribbean through Fri. Fresh to strong winds pulse in the south central Caribbean through the forecast period. ATLANTIC OCEAN... Please refer to the Special Features section above for information on the Gale Warning for portions of the western Atlantic and Significant Swell event to the east. Aside from the areas in the Special Features section, ridging dominates the remainder of the eastern subtropical Atlantic, anchored by a 1027 mb high pressure center NE of the Canary Islands. This is leading to gentle to moderate E to NE winds for remaining waters N of 20N, and seas of 5 to 8 ft. For areas south of 20N, moderate to fresh trades dominate and seas are 5 to 8 ft. For the forecast W of 55W, a cold front stretching from 31N68W to NW Cuba is moving across the western Atlantic waters, with gale- force winds ahead of the front N of 29N. The front will extend from 31N58W to central Cuba tonight. Gale force winds will end by tonight, and the fresh to strong winds will continue through Wed. Meanwhile, a swell event with with very rough seas will continue in the wake of the front, affecting the waters N of 27N. Looking ahead, a reinforcing cold front may bring another round of gale- force winds to the offshore waters N of 29N by Thu night into Fri. This will also reinforce the swell event, with very rough to high seas persisting in waters N of 18N and E of 75W. $$ Adams