027 AXNT20 KNHC 071008 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1215 UTC Tue Jan 7 2025 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1000 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Atlantic Gale Warning: N of 30N, gale force winds have developed on both sides of a strong cold front that extends from 31N74W to 27N80W. These gales extend E to around 65W and are accompanied by seas of up to 16 ft. Gales will spread east as the front progresses, with the boundary reaching from 31N58W to central Cuba by this evening. Gales will end tonight as the front begins to weaken, but significant northerly swell will continue to spread into area waters into late week, bringing seas of 12 to 20 ft N of 25N. Looking ahead, another cold front may bring a threat of gale conditions late this week. Atlantic Significant Swell Event: Large, long period NW swell with period of 14 to 16 seconds continues to propagate across the central subtropical Atlantic in the wake of a cold front that currently extends from 31N32W to 23N46W. Peak seas along 31N, E of 60W, are near 19-20 ft, with seas in excess of 12 ft extending S to 25N between 30W and 60W. Additional significant swell, partially associated with the cold front depicted the the Atlantic Gale Warning Special Feature section above, will propagate into the region by Wed, prolonging the very rough seas through late week. Please refer to the latest NWS High Seas Forecast, issued by the National Hurricane Center, at the website: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml, for more details on the areas above. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The ITCZ extends from near 05N15W to 00N49W. Scattered moderate convection is noted along the whole boundary. GULF OF MEXICO... Strong to near-gale N to NW winds will prevail today across the Bay of Campeche in the wake of a cold front that currently extends across the Yucatan Channel to southwestern Florida. Rough seas are noted across the central portion of the basin, while moderate seas prevail N of 26N and S of 24N. For the forecast, high pressure will build in the wake of the front producing moderate to fresh N to NE winds across the remainder of the basin. A trough will develop over the western Gulf on Wed, tightening the pressure gradient and supporting fresh to strong winds on either side of the trough axis. A low may develop along the trough axis over the NW Gulf by Thu bringing increasing winds and seas. CARIBBEAN SEA... The pressure gradient between the seasonal mid-latitude high pressure centers and the lower pressure of the deep tropics is leading to fresh NE to E winds across the central and eastern Caribbean. Strong winds are pulsing over the waters offshore Colombia. Moderate trades prevail in the SW basin, with light to gentle winds in the NW. Seas are 4 to 7 ft, except 3 to 5 ft in the NW Caribbean. Scattered moderate convection is ongoing just offshore Nicaragua, Costa Rica, and Panama mainly due to coastal convergence. For the forecast, fresh to strong winds in the central Caribbean will diminish today as high pressure N of the area shifts eastward ahead of the next cold front forecast to enter the NW Caribbean. The front is forecast to reach from central Cuba to Belize by this evening, and from the Windward Passage to the Gulf of Honduras by Wed morning before dissipating Wed night. Moderate to fresh N to NE winds and moderate seas are expected behind the front. High pressure will build in the wake of the front, supporting moderate to fresh NE winds in the NW Caribbean through Fri. Fresh to strong winds will pulse in the south central Caribbean through the forecast period. ATLANTIC OCEAN... Please refer to the Special Features section above for information on the Gale Warning for portions of the western Atlantic and Significant Swell event to the east. Aside from the areas in the Special Features section, ridging dominates the remainder of the eastern subtropical Atlantic, anchored by a 1022 mb high pressure center NE of the Canary Islands. This is leading to gentle winds for remaining waters N of 20N, and seas of 5 to 8 ft. Otherwise, a 1018 mb high is centered E of the Bahamas and S of Bermuda. Across the tropical Atlantic, moderate to fresh trades dominate, and seas are 5 to 8 ft. For the forecast W of 55W, the gale front will extend from SE Bahamas and eastern Cuba tonight. The swell event, with very rough seas will continue in the wake of the front, affecting the waters N of 29N, and propagating across the area N of 27N and E of 70W on Wed. Gale conditions associated with this front are forecast to end by tonight. Looking ahead, a reinforcing cold front may bring another round of gale-force winds to the offshore waters N of 29N by Thu night into Fri. $$ ERA