258 AXNT20 KNHC 061741 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1815 UTC Mon Jan 6 2025 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1800 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Atlantic Gale Warning: Fresh to strong S winds will continue this afternoon offshore NE Florida then spread N of the Bahamas ahead of a cold that will move offshore the U.S. coast tonight. Fresh to strong southerly winds off NE Florida will reach gale force ahead of the next cold front expected to move off the U.S. coast this afternoon. The front will extend from near 31N70W to western Cuba by Tue morning, and from 31N55W to SE Bahamas and eastern Cuba Tue night. Gales should end Wed when the front reaches a 31N50W to Hispaniola line and begins to weaken. Very rough seas will accompany the gales, and significant swell will propagate SE with time, impacting waters N of 26N well after gales end. Gulf of Mexico Gale Warning: A cold front extending from 30N86W to 20N97W will race southward across the basin today. The front is forecast to reach from near Tampa Bay to Veracruz, Mexico by this evening. Gale conditions are currently over the west-central waters, and are expected in the Veracruz area by this afternoon. The front will exit the basin tonight. Seas of up to 12 ft will accompany the gales. The cold front will exit the basin Tue, when gales will end and seas will subside. Atlantic Significant Swell: Large, long period NW swell with period of 14 to 16 seconds continues to propagate across the central Atlantic in the wake of a cold front that currently extends from 31N39W to 21N64W. Peak seas along 31N, E of 65W, are near 20 ft, with seas in excess of 12 ft extending S to 25N between 35W-60W. Another swell event with very rough seas is expected later this week, affecting mainly the waters N of 27N on Tue, and propagating across the area N of 26N and E of 70W on Wed. Looking ahead, a reinforcing cold front may bring yet another round of very rough seas to the offshore waters N of 20N by Thu night into Fri. Please refer to the latest NWS High Seas Forecast, issued by the National Hurricane Center, at the website: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml, for more details on the areas above. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near 05N10W and extends to 05N11W. The ITCZ extends from 05N11W to 01N50W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is along and within 150 nm of the ITCZ. GULF OF MEXICO... Please see the Special Features section above for information on a Gale Warning in effect for portions of the SW Gulf of Mexico today. A cold front extends from 30N86W to 20N97W. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are noted along the front. Away from the area mentioned in the Special Features section, strong to near gale force N to NW winds are also noted behind the front, with rapidly building seas reaching 11 ft today. Ahead of the front, fresh to strong S to SW winds cover the NE Gulf N of 25N, where seas are 5 to 9 ft. Elsewhere, weakening high pressure dominates the basin, leading to gentle to moderate winds and seas of 3 to 6 ft. For the forecast, a Gale Warning is in effect for the west- central and SW parts of the Gulf in association with the cold front that extends from The Florida Panhandle to N of Veracruz, Mexico. The front is forecast to reach from near Tampa Bay to Veracruz, Mexico by this evening. Gale conditions are currently over the west-central waters, and are expected in the Veracruz area by this afternoon. The front will exit the basin tonight. High pressure will build in the wake of the front producing moderate to fresh N to NE winds. A trough will develop over the western Gulf on Wed, tightening the pressure gradient and supporting fresh to strong winds on either side of the trough axis. A low may develop along the trough axis over the NW Gulf by Thu bringing increasing winds and seas. CARIBBEAN SEA... A tight pressure gradient between the seasonal mid-latitude high pressure centers and the lower pressure of the deep tropics is leading to a broad area of fresh to strong NE to E winds across much of the central and eastern Caribbean and Windward Passage. The strongest winds in the region are pulsing offshore Colombia. Seas through the areas of strong winds are 8 to 10 ft. Elsewhere, moderate to fresh trades dominate, with seas of 5 to 8 ft. To the south, the eastern extension of the east Pacific monsoon trough as well as another surface trough paralleling the coasts of Nicaragua, Costa Rica, and Panama are leading to scattered moderate convection S of 14N and W of 77W. For the forecast, high pressure N of the area will support fresh to strong NE winds in the in the central Caribbean today. These winds will diminish tonight into Tue as the high pressure shifts eastward ahead of the next cold front forecast to enter the NW Caribbean early on Tue. The front is forecast to reach from central Cuba to Belize by Tue evening, and from the Windward Passage to the Gulf of Honduras by Wed morning before dissipating Wed night. Moderate to fresh N to NE winds and moderate seas are expected behind the front. High pressure will build in the wake of the front, supporting moderate to fresh NE winds in the NW Caribbean through Fri. ATLANTIC OCEAN... Please refer to the Special Features section above for information on the Gale Warning for portions of the western Atlantic and Significant Swell to the east. A cold front extends from 31N39W to 21N65W. Aside from this cold front and the areas in the Special Features section, ridging dominates the remainder of the Atlantic, anchored by a 1022 mb high pressure center just W of the Canary Islands and another 1022 mb high ENE of the Bahamas. Mainly gentle winds and seas of 5 to 7 ft prevail across much of the basin. However, S of 20N, moderate to fresh trades dominate, and seas are 6 to 8 ft. For the forecast W of 55W, A cold front extends from 23N55W to 21N65W. Fresh to strong winds and rough to very rough seas will impact the far NE waters today. Fresh to strong southerly winds off NE Florida will reach gale force ahead of the next cold front expected to move off the U.S. coast this afternoon. The front will extend from near 31N70W to western Cuba by Tue morning, and from 31N55W to SE Bahamas and eastern Cuba Tue night. Strong to gale- force winds will also follow the front N of 29N. Another swell event, with very rough seas is expected in the wake of the front, affecting mainly the waters N of 29N on Tue, and propagating across the area N of 27N and E of 70W on Wed. Gale conditions associated with this front are forecast to end by Tue night. Looking ahead, a reinforcing cold front may bring another round of gale-force winds to the offshore waters N of 29N by Thu night into Fri. $$ Adams