130 AXNT20 KNHC 061006 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1215 UTC Mon Jan 6 2025 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1000 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Atlantic Gale Warning: Fresh to strong S winds will develop this morning offshore NE Florida then spread N of the Bahamas ahead of a cold that will move offshore the U.S. coast tonight. Winds will reach gales ahead of the front N of 29N starting today, then spread east, as NW gales develop behind the front. By Tue, the front will stretch from Bermuda to the central Bahamas and central Cuba. Gales should end Wed when the front reaches a 31N50W to Hispaniola line and begins to weaken. Very rough seas will accompany the gales, and significant swell will propagate SE with time, impacting waters N of 26N even after gales end. Gulf of Mexico Gale Warning: A cold front extending from 29N90W to 24N98W will race southward across the basin today. Gales will develop behind the front offshore Tampico, Mexico this morning, then spread to waters offshore Veracruz tonight. Seas of up to 12 ft will accompany the gales. The cold front will exit the basin Tue, when gales will end and seas will subside. Atlantic Significant Swell: Large, long period NW swell with period of 15 to 16 seconds continues to propagate across the central Atlantic in the wake of a cold front that currently extends from 31N41W to 21N60W. Peak seas along 31N, E of 65W, are near 19 ft, with seas in excess of 12 ft extending S to 25N between 40W-66W. These very rough seas will prevail across northeast waters through Tue. Please, refer to the latest NWS High Seas Forecast, issued by the National Hurricane Center, at the website: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml, for more details on the areas above. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough is inland over Africa. The ITCZ extends from 06N12W to 01N48W. Scattered moderate convection along the ITCZ. GULF OF MEXICO... Special see the Special Features section above for information on a Gale Warning in effect for portions of the SW Gulf of Mexico today. A cold front extends from 29N90W to 24N98W. Scattered showers are noted along the front. Strong to near gale force N to NW winds are noted behind the front, with rapidly building seas reaching 10 ft today. Ahead of the front, fresh to strong southerly winds cover the NE Gulf N of 27N, where seas are 7 to 9 ft. Elsewhere, weakening high pressure dominates the basin, leading to moderate winds and seas of 4 to 7 ft. For the forecast, the front is forecast to reach from near Tampa Bay to Veracruz, Mexico by this evening. Gale conditions are expected over the west-central waters early today, and in the Veracruz area by this afternoon. The front will exit the basin tonight. High pressure will build in the wake of the front producing moderate to fresh N to NE winds. Looking ahead, a trough will develop over the western Gulf on Wed, tightening the pressure gradient and supporting fresh to strong winds on either side of the trough axis. A low may develop along the trough axis over the NW Gulf by Thu bringing increasing winds and seas. CARIBBEAN SEA... A tight pressure gradient between the seasonal mid-latitude high pressure centers and the lower pressure of the deep tropics is leading to a broad area of strong NE to E winds across the central Caribbean and Windward Passage. Winds are near gale force offshore Colombia. Seas through this area of strong winds are 8 to 10 ft. Elsewhere, moderate to fresh trades dominate, with seas of 5 to 7 ft. To the south, the eastern extension of the east Pacific monsoon trough is leading to scattered moderate convection S of 14N and W of 80W. For the forecast, high pressure N of the area will continue to support fresh to strong NE winds in the NW Caribbean and Windward Passage through this morning. Similar wind speeds are also expected in the central Caribbean, and parts of the eastern Caribbean through today. These winds will diminish tonight into Tue as the high pressure shifts eastward ahead of the next cold front forecast to enter the NW Caribbean early on Tue. The front is forecast to reach from central Cuba to Belize by Tue evening, and from the Windward Passage to the Gulf of Honduras by Wed morning before dissipating Wed night. Moderate to fresh N to NE winds and moderate seas are expected behind the front. High pressure will build in the wake of the front, supporting moderate to fresh NE winds in the NW Caribbean through Fri. ATLANTIC OCEAN... Please refer to the Special Features section above for information on the Gale Warning for portion of the western Atlantic and Significant Swell to the east. A cold front extends from 31N41W to 21N60W. Aside from this cold front and the areas in the Special Features section, ridging, anchored by 1021 mb high pressure center just W of the Canary Islands, dominates, leading to mainly gentle winds and seas of 5 to 7 ft. However, S of 20N, moderate to fresh trades dominate, and seas are 6 to 8 ft. For the forecast W of 55W, a cold front will extend from near 31N70W to western Cuba by Tue morning and from 31N55W to SE Bahamas and eastern Cuba Tue night. A reinforcing cold front may bring another round a gale force winds to the offshore waters N of 29N by Thu night into Fri. $$ ERA