604 AXNT20 KNHC 060439 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0615 UTC Mon Jan 6 2025 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0400 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Atlantic Gale Warning: Fresh to strong S winds will develop later tonight offshore NE Florida then spread N of the Bahamas Mon, ahead of a cold that will move offshore the U.S. coast Mon night. Winds will reach gales ahead of the front N of 29N starting Mon, then spread east, as NW gales develop behind the front. By Tue, the front will stretch from Bermuda to the central Bahamas and central Cuba. Gales should end Wed when the front reaches a 31N50W to Hispaniola line and begins to weaken. Very rough seas will accompany the gales, and significant swell will propagate SE with time, impacting waters N of 26N even after gales end. Gulf of Mexico Gale Warning: A cold front moving offshore Texas this evening will race southward down the east coast of Mexico overnight and into Mon. Gales will develop behind the front offshore Tampico, Mexico, Mon morning, then spread to waters offshore Veracruz Mon night. Seas of up to 12 ft will accompany the gales. The cold front will exit the basin Tue, when gales will end and seas will subside. Atlantic Significant Swell: Large, long period NW swell with period of 15 to 16 seconds continues to propagate across the central Atlantic in the wake of a cold front that currently extends from 31N44W to just NE of Hispaniola. Peak seas along 31N, E of 65W, are near 20 ft, with seas in excess of 12 ft extending S to 23N and W to 70W. These very rough seas will prevail across northeast waters through at least Mon night. Please, refer to the latest NWS High Seas Forecast, issued by the National Hurricane Center, at the website: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml, for more details on the above SPECIAL FEATURES. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough is inland over Africa. The ITCZ extends from the coast of Liberia near 06N10W to 00N48W. Scattered moderate convection is noted N of the ITCZ to 05N between 23W and 50W. GULF OF MEXICO... Special see the Special Features section above for information on a Gale Warning in effect for portions of the SW Gulf of Mexico Mon and Mon night. A cold front has exited the Texas coast this evening. Scattered thunderstorms are along and within 30 nm E of the front to the N of 28N, offshore Louisiana. Strong to near gale force N to NW winds are noted behind the front, with rapidly building seas reaching 10 ft this evening. Ahead of the front, fresh to strong southerly winds cover the NE Gulf N of 27N, where seas are 7 to 9 ft. Elsewhere, weakening high pressure dominates the basin, leading to moderate winds and seas of 4 to 7 ft. For the forecast, the cold front will reach from the western Florida Panhandle to near Tampico, Mexico, by Mon morning, and from near Tampa Bay to Veracruz, Mexico, by Mon evening. The front will exit the basin on Mon night. High pressure will build in the wake of the front producing moderate to fresh N to NE winds. Looking ahead, a trough will develop over the western Gulf on Wed, tightening the pressure gradient and supporting fresh to strong winds on either side of the trough axis. A low may develop along the trough axis over the NW Gulf by Thu bringing increasing winds and seas. CARIBBEAN SEA... A tight pressure gradient between the seasonal mid-latitude high pressure centers and the lower pressure of the deep tropics is leading to a broad area of strong NE to E winds across the central Caribbean and Windward Passage. Winds are near gale force offshore Colombia. Seas through this area of strong winds are 8 to 10 ft, with localized seas near 12 ft offshore Colombia. Elsewhere, moderate to fresh trades dominate, with seas of 5 to 7 ft. Scattered moderate convection is noted between Honduras, Jamaica, and the Cayman Islands in association with upper-level divergence. To the south, the eastern extension of the east Pacific monsoon trough is leading to scattered moderate convection S of 14N and W of 75W. For the forecast, high pressure centered N of the area will support fresh to strong NE winds in the NW Caribbean and Windward Passage through tonight. Similar wind speeds are also expected in the central Caribbean, and parts of the eastern Caribbean, including the Mona Passage, through at least Mon. These winds will diminish Mon night into Tue as the high pressure shifts eastward ahead of the next cold front forecast to enter the NW Caribbean early on Tue. The front is forecast to reach from central Cuba to Belize by Tue evening, and from the Windward Passage to the Gulf of Honduras by Wed morning before dissipating Wed night. Moderate to fresh N to NE winds and moderate seas are expected behind the front. High pressure will build in the wake of the front, supporting moderate to fresh NE winds in the NW Caribbean through Fri. ATLANTIC OCEAN... Please refer to the Special Features section above for information on a Gale Warning for portion of the western Atlantic and Significant Swell to the east. A cold front extends from 31N44W to just N of Hispaniola. Aside from this cold front and the areas in the Special Features section, ridging, anchored by 1021 mb high pressure center just W of the Canary Islands, dominates, leading to mainly gentle winds and seas of 5 to 7 ft. However, S of 20N, moderate to fresh trades dominate, and seas are 6 to 8 ft. For the forecast W of 55W, a cold front will extend from near 31N70W to western Cuba by Tue morning and from 31N55W to SE Bahamas and eastern Cuba Tue night. A reinforcing cold front may bring another round a gale force winds to the offshore waters N of 29N by Thu night into Fri. $$ Konarik