000 AXNT20 KNHC 051015 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1215 UTC Sun Jan 5 2025 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1000 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Atlantic Gale Warning: Fresh to strong southerly winds will return to the waters off NE Florida and north of the Bahamas tonight into Mon, rapidly reaching gale force speeds ahead of the next cold front expected to move off the U.S. coast late Mon afternoon. The front will extend from near 31N70W to western Cuba by Tue morning, and from 31N55W to SE Bahamas and eastern Cuba Tue night. Strong to minimal gale force winds will also follow the front N of 29N. Another swell event, with very rough seas is expected in the wake of the front, affecting mainly the waters N of 29N on Tue, and propagating across the area N of 27N and E of 70W on Wed. Peak winds should reach around 40 kt and peak seas around 20 ft. Gale conditions associated with this front are forecast to end by Tue night. Gulf of Mexico Gale Warning: A Gale Warning is in effect for the west-central and SW parts of the Gulf in association with the next cold front forecast to enter the Gulf region this evening. Fresh to strong southerly return flow is noted per scatterometer data ahead of the front over the western half of the Gulf. These winds will extend to the NE Gulf today. Fresh to strong NW to N winds, with frequent gusts to gale force, and rough seas will follow the front, forecast to reach from the western Florida Panhandle to near Tampico, Mexico by Mon morning, and from near Tampa Bay to Veracruz, Mexico by Mon evening. Gale conditions are expected over the west-central waters early on Mon, and in the Veracruz area by Mon afternoon. Peak winds should be around 35 kt, with higher gusts, and peak seas around 12 ft. The front will exit the basin on Mon night. High pressure, in the wake of the front, will cover the Gulf waters on Tue producing moderate to fresh N to NE winds. Significant Swell Event: Large and long period northerly swell continues to propagate across the central Atlantic in the wake of a cold front that currently extends from 31N55W to 20N74W. Buoy 41049 located near 27N62W was reporting 15 ft. The swell train, with a leading edge period of 16 to 17 seconds, and peak seas around 20 ft along 31N will continue to propagate across the forecast waters between 40W and 70W today, and E of 65W on Mon. Seas in excess of 8 ft will dominate most of the Atlantic forecast waters N of 20N through at least Mon. Please, refer to the latest NWS High Seas Forecast, issued by the National Hurricane Center, at the website: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml, for more details. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough is inland in Africa. The ITCZ extends from near the coast of Liberia at 06N10W to 03N25W to 00N43W. Scattered moderate convection is noted N of the ITCZ to about 06N between 17W and 43W. ...GULF OF MEXICO... A Gale Warning has been issued for the west-central and SW parts of the Gulf. Please, read the Special Features section for more details. A ridge currently dominates the Gulf waters. The pressure gradient between the ridge and a low pressure system over Texas and NE Mexico supports fresh to strong southerly winds over the western half of the Gulf with seas of 6 to 8 ft. Similar winds speeds from the NE and E are noted across the Straits of Florida and the SE Gulf where seas are 5 to 7 ft. Elsewhere moderate to locally fresh winds are noted with seas of 3 to 5 ft, except 1 to 3 ft in the offshore waters of W Florida and the NE Gulf. A patch of low level clouds, with embedded areas of rain, is affecting the north- central and NE Gulf. For the forecast, refer to the Special Features section. Looking ahead, a trough will develop over the western Gulf on Wed, tightening the pressure gradient and supporting fresh to strong winds on either side of the trough axis. A low may develop along the trough axis over the NW Gulf by Thu bringing increasing winds and seas. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... Recent satellite derived wind data show fresh to strong winds in the NW Caribbean, the Windward Passage, and over the central Caribbean, including the Gulf of Venezuela, and also the Mona Passage. The strongest winds of 30 kt are in the lee of eastern Cuba, just S of of Dominican Republic, and near the coast of Colombia. These winds are the result of the pressure gradient between a ridge extending across the Bahamas, Cuba and the NW Caribbean and the Colombian low. Seas are 7 to 9 ft with the strongest winds. Seas of 4 to 7 ft prevail elsewhere. Scattered showers and thunderstorms persist over the SW Caribbean under a diffluent pattern aloft. Patches of low level moisture, producing isolated to scattered passing showers are noted elsewhere across the basin. For the forecast, high pressure N of area will continue to support fresh to strong NE winds in the NW Caribbean and Windward Passage through this evening. Similar wind speeds are also expected in the central Caribbean, and parts of the eastern Caribbean, including the Mona Passage, through at least Mon. These winds will diminish Mon night into Tue as the high pressure shifts eastward ahead of the next cold front forecast to enter the NW Caribbean early on Tue. Moderate to fresh N to NE winds and moderate seas are expected behind the front forecast to reach from central Cuba to Belize by Tue evening, and from the Windward Passage to the Gulf of Honduras by Wed morning before dissipating Wed night. High pressure behind the front will support moderate to locally fresh NE winds in the NW Caribbean through Thu. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... Please read the Special features section for details about a Gale Warning over the western Atlantic, and a Significant Swell Event. A cold front extends from 31N55W to 20N74W. Fresh to strong winds and a significant swell event are associated with this front. High pressure follows the front and dominates the SE of the United States, the western Atlantic and the Bahamas. E of the front, a 1021 mb high pressure is analyzed near 28N33W. This is leading to mainly gentle anticyclonic flow and seas of 5 to 7 ft for waters N of 20N and E of 40W. To the south, moderate to fresh E winds and seas of 7 to 9 ft dominate the tradewind belt. A cold front is just E of the Madeira Islands, and a ridge reaches the Canary Islands. For the forecast W of 55W, as previously mentioned, fresh to strong winds and rough to very rough seas are associated with the aforementioned cold front. These marine conditions will continue to affect mainly the offshore waters E of 70W through tonight. Then, fresh to strong southerly winds will return to the waters off NE Florida and north of the Bahamas tonight into Mon, rapidly reaching gale force speeds ahead of the next cold front expected to move off the U.S. coast late Mon afternoon. More information in the Special Features section. Looking ahead, a reinforcing cold front may bring another round a gale force winds to the offshore waters N of 29N by Thu night into Fri. $$ GR