000 AXNT20 KNHC 042353 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0015 UTC Sun Jan 5 2025 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2330 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... ...CENTRAL ATLANTIC OCEAN GALE-FORCE WIND WARNING... Strong to minimal gale force winds and rough to very rough seas will continue to accompany a cold front extending from 31N59W to the central Bahamas to the Straits of Florida through early tonight. The 1359 UTC and 1456 UTC ASCAT scatterometer pass indicated that the gale force winds were north of 30N between 60W-75W. Additionally, at 1830Z Sentinel 6A altimeter pass showed seas up to 20 ft in the same area. By tonight, winds gradually diminish from west to east on Sun. However the associated swell will continue to affect most of the waters E of 70W through Mon. ...WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN GALE-FORCE WIND WARNING... Fresh to strong southerly winds will return to the waters off NE Florida and north of the Bahamas Sun night into Mon, rapidly reaching gale force speeds ahead of the next cold front expected to move off the coast Mon evening. The front will extend from 31N70W to western Cuba by Tue morning, and from 31N57W to SE Bahamas and eastern Cuba Tue night. Another swell event, with very rough seas will follow the front, affecting mainly the waters N of 29N on Tue, and propagating across the area N of 27N and E of 70W on Wed. Peak winds should reach around 40 kt and peak seas around 20 ft. Gale conditions associated with this front are forecast to end Tue evening. ...GULF OF MEXICO GALE-FORCE WIND WARNING... The next cold front should enter the NW Gulf by Sun evening. Fresh to strong southerly return flow is expected ahead of the front covering the western half of the Gulf by tonight, and extending to the NE Gulf Sun and Sun night. Fresh to strong NW to N winds and rough seas will follow the front, forecast to reach from the western Florida Panhandle to near Tampico, Mexico by Mon morning, and from near Tampa Bay to Veracruz, Mexico by Mon evening. Minimal gale conditions are possible over the west- central waters on Mon, and in the Veracruz area by Mon evening. Peak winds should be around 35 kt and peak seas around 15 ft. The front will exit the basin on Mon night. High pressure, in the wake of the front, will cover the Gulf waters on Tue producing moderate to fresh N to NE winds. Please, refer to the latest NWS High Seas Forecast, that is issued by the National Hurricane Center, at the website: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml, for more details. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough is inland in Africa. The ITCZ passes through the coastal plains of Liberia close to 06N10W to 03N31W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 04N-06N between 30W-40W as well as south of 14N west of 73W in the SW Caribbean, associated with the eastern N Pacific's monsoon trough. ...GULF OF MEXICO... Please, read the SPECIAL FEATURES section, for details about the Gale-Force Wind Warning in the SW Gulf. A cold front extends from the Straits of Florida to 25N89W where it transitions to a stationary front to the Upper Texas coast. Winds across the Gulf are moderate to fresh with seas 3-7 ft. No significant deep convection is occurring. For the forecast, a ridge will continue to dominate most of the Gulf waters while a trough will persist over the NW Gulf through tonight. The ridge will shift eastward on Sun, ahead of the next cold front forecast to enter the NW Gulf by Sun evening. Fresh to strong southerly return flow is expected ahead of the front covering the western half of the Gulf by tonight, and extending to the NE Gulf Sun and Sun night. Fresh to strong NW to N winds and rough seas will follow the front, forecast to reach from the western Florida Panhandle to near Tampico, Mexico by Mon morning, and from near Tampa Bay to Veracruz, Mexico by Mon evening. Minimal gale conditions are possible over the west- central waters on Mon, and in the Veracruz area by Mon evening. The front will exit the basin on Mon night. High pressure, in the wake of the front, will cover the Gulf waters on Tue producing moderate to fresh N to NE winds. Looking ahead, a trough will develop over the western Gulf on Wed, tightening the pressure gradient and supporting fresh to strong winds on either side of the trough axis. A low will develop from the trough over the NW Gulf by Thu morning and winds N and E of the low will further increase to near gale-force speeds. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... A dissipating stationary front is noted from the S Bahamas westward to just south of W Cuba. A strong north-south pressure gradient is forcing fresh to strong NE winds across the NW Caribbean including the Windward with seas 6-8 ft. Winds are fresh over the S central Caribbean with seas 6-8 ft. Elsewhere, winds are gentle to moderate with seas 4-6 ft. Scattered moderate convection is noted south of 14N west of 73W in the SW Caribbean. For the forecast, high pressure N of area will continue to support fresh to strong NE winds in the NW Caribbean and Windward Passage through Sun evening. Similar wind speeds are also expected in the central Caribbean, and parts of the eastern Caribbean, including the Mona Passage, through at least Mon. These winds will diminish Mon night into Tue as the high pressure shifts eastward ahead of the next cold front forecast to enter the NW Caribbean early on Tue. Moderate to fresh N to NE winds and moderate seas are expected behind the front forecast to reach from central Cuba to Belize by Tue evening, and from the Windward Passage to the Gulf of Honduras by Wed morning before dissipating Wed night. Moderate to fresh NE winds will prevail in the central and portions of the NW Caribbean Thu and Thu night. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... Please, read the SPECIAL FEATURES section, for details about the two Gale-Force Wind Warnings in the central and western Atlantic Ocean. A strong cold front extends from 31N59W to the central Bahamas. W to NW winds behind the front range from fresh to gale from north to south. Winds ahead of the front are SW fresh to strong. Seas of 8 ft or great are north of 27N west of 40W. Elsewhere, a 1022 mb high near 28N40W is forcing only moderate to fresh trades with seas to 9 ft south of 20N east of 60W. Winds elsewhere are gentle to moderate with seas 5-7 ft. No significant deep convection is occurring over the Atlantic, away from the ITCZ. For the forecast, strong to minimal gale force winds and rough to very rough seas will continue to accompany a cold front extending from 31N59W to the central Bahamas to the Straits of Florida through early tonight. Strong to gale force winds, will continue to affect mainly the offshores north of 29N. Afterward, winds will briefly diminish from west to east on Sun, however the associated swell will continue to affect most of the waters E of 70W through Mon. Looking ahead, fresh to strong southerly winds will return to the waters off NE Florida and north of the Bahamas Sun night into Mon, rapidly reaching gale force speeds ahead of the next cold front expected to move off the coast Mon evening. The front will extend from 31N70W to western Cuba by Tue morning, and from 31N57W to SE Bahamas and eastern Cuba Tue night. Another swell event, with very rough seas will follow the front, affecting mainly the waters N of 29N on Tue, and propagating across the area N of 27N and E of 70W on Wed. Gale conditions associated with this front are forecast to end Tue evening. Looking ahead, a reinforcing cold front will bring again gales to the offshores N of 27N Thu and Thu night. $$ Landsea