662 AXNT20 KNHC 041803 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1815 UTC Sat Jan 4 2025 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1740 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... ...ATLANTIC OCEAN GALE-FORCE WIND WARNING... A cold front passes through 31N66W 29N70W, through the NW Bahamas, beyond the southern tip of the Florida peninsula. Expect gale-force NW to N winds, and rough to very rough seas, for the next 18 hours or so, from 27N northward between 72W and 81W. Gale- force W winds, and very rough seas, are from 30N northward between 64W and 72W. Expect also: strong to near gale-force SW winds, and rough seas, are from 26N northward between 49W and 72W. The 24-hour rainfall totals in inches, for the period that ended at 04/1200 UTC, are: 0.30 in Bermuda. This information is from the Pan American Temperature and Precipitation Tables/MIATPTPAN. Please, refer to the latest NWS High Seas Forecast, that is issued by the National Hurricane Center, at the website: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml, for more details. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough is inland in Africa. The ITCZ passes through the coastal plains of Liberia close to 06N10W, to 04N20W 03N32W. Precipitation: widely scattered to scattered moderate and isolated strong is from 06N between 30W and 45W. ...GULF OF MEXICO... A cold front passes through the NW Bahamas, to the southern tip of the Florida peninsula, into the north central Gulf, and to the NW Gulf. A surface trough curves from 28N95W, to the Texas coast, and toward the border with NE Mexico. Precipitation: broken to overcast multilayered clouds, and isolated moderate, are from 23N northward between 86W and the Texas coast. Fresh to strong NE winds are from the cold front southward from 88W eastward; and in the coastal waters of the Tampa Florida metropolitan area. Fresh NE winds are elsewhere from 90W eastward. Moderate or slower surface anticyclonic wind flow is in the western half of the Gulf of Mexico. Moderate seas that range from 4 feet to 6 feet are from 92W eastward. An exception is for slight seas in the coastal waters of the Florida Panhandle. Slight seas are in the remainder of the Gulf of Mexico. A ridge will continue to dominate most of the Gulf waters while a trough will persist over the NW Gulf through tonight. The ridge will shift eastward on Sun, ahead of the next cold front forecast to enter the NW Gulf by Sun evening. Fresh to strong southerly return flow is expected ahead of the front covering the western half of the Gulf by tonight, and extending to the NE Gulf Sun and Sun night. Fresh to strong NW to N winds and rough seas will follow the front, forecast to reach from the western Florida Panhandle to near Tampico, Mexico by Mon morning, and from near Tampa Bay to Veracruz, Mexico by Mon evening. Minimal gale conditions are possible over the west-central waters on Mon, and in the Veracruz area by Mon evening. The front will exit the basin on Mon night. High pressure, in the wake of the front, will cover the Gulf waters on Tue producing moderate to fresh N to NE winds. Looking ahead, a trough will develop over the western Gulf on Wed, tightening the pressure gradient and supporting fresh to strong winds on either side of the trough axis. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... The GFS model for 700 mb shows broad cyclonic wind flow in the western half of the Caribbean Sea. The monsoon trough is along 10N75W in Colombia, southwestward through Panama, and beyond southern Costa Rica, and into the Pacific Ocean. Precipitation: widely scattered to scattered moderate and isolated strong is to the south of 13N68W 16N75W 18N82W 16N85W. Strong NE winds, and moderate to rough seas, are in the NW corner of the area from 15N northward from 80W westward. Fresh to strong NE winds, and moderate seas that range from 6 feet to 7 feet, are in the central one-third of the area. Mostly moderate to some fresh NE winds, and slight to moderate seas, are from 70W eastward. Slight seas are elsewhere from 80W westward. The 24-hour rainfall totals in inches, for the period that ended at 04/1200 UTC, are: 0.27 in San Juan in Puerto Rico; 0.09 in Trinidad; 0.05 in St. Thomas in the Virgin Islands; 0.04 in Curacao; and 0.01 in Montego Bay in Jamaica. This information is from the Pan American Temperature and Precipitation Tables/MIATPTPAN. High pressure N of area will continue to support fresh to strong NE winds in the NW Caribbean and Windward Passage through Sun evening. Similar wind speeds are also expected in the central Caribbean, and parts of the eastern Caribbean, including the Mona Passage, through at least Mon. These winds will diminish Mon night into Tue as the high pressure shifts eastward ahead of the next cold front forecast to enter the NW Caribbean early on Tue. Moderate to fresh N to NE winds and moderate seas are expected behind the front forecast to reach from central Cuba to Belize by Tue evening, and from the Windward Passage to the Gulf of Honduras by Wed morning before dissipating Wed night. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... Please, read the SPECIAL FEATURES section, for details about the Gale-Force Wind Warning in the western Atlantic Ocean. A stationary front is about 270 nm to the SE of the approaching cold front that is part of the SPECIAL FEATURES section. The front passes through 31N55W, to 24N70W, to just to the south of NW Cuba. Fresh to strong SW winds are from 28N northward between 52W and the stationary front. A surface trough is about 1600 nm to the east of the stationary front, along 31N23W 24N28W. Fresh SW winds are from 27N northward from 26W eastward. Rough seas in general are to the north of 31N25W 27N30W 08N35W 11N60W 31N67W. Moderate seas are in the remainder of the Atlantic Ocean. Fresh to strong NE winds are from 22N southward between 30W and 60W. Fresh NE winds are from the ITCZ to 21N from 30W eastward. A stationary front extending from 31N55W to the southern Bahamas and eastern Cuba will continue to weaken and gradually dissipate today. Strong to minimal gale force winds and rough to very rough seas will accompany a cold front extending from Bermuda to Andros Island to Key Largo, Florida through early tonight. Strong to gale force winds, will continue to affect mainly the offshore waters north of 29N. Afterward, winds will briefly diminish from west to east on Sun, however the associated swell will continue to affect most of the waters E of 70W through Mon. Looking ahead, fresh to strong southerly winds will return to the waters off NE Florida and north of the Bahamas Sun night into Mon, rapidly reaching gale force speeds ahead of the next cold front expected to move off the coast Mon evening. The front will extend from 31N70W to western Cuba by Tue morning, and from 31N57W to SE Bahamas and eastern Cuba Tue night. Another swell event, with very rough seas will follow the front, affecting mainly the waters N of 29N on Tue, and propagating across the area N of 27N and E of 70W on Wed. $$ mt/nr