177 AXNT20 KNHC 041015 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1215 UTC Sat Jan 4 2025 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1000 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Atlantic Gale Warning: A cold front emerging off the southeast coast of the United States will progress eastward this weekend. Recent scatterometer data indicate strong to minimal gale force winds across the waters N of 29N and W of 70W where a Gale Warning is in effect. Strong to minimal gale force winds and rough to very rough seas will accompany the front mainly north of 29N through early tonight. Seas in excess of 12 ft will dominate the waters N of 29N W of 60W by this morning, and the area N of 25N between 50W and 70W by Sun morning. Peak seas near 20 ft are likely north of 30W. Winds and very rough seas will expand farther east through the weekend and into early next week. Looking ahead, another strong low pressure system moving off the east coast of the United States will produce widespread strong to gale force winds and very rough seas between the northeast Florida coast and Bermuda early next week. Please, refer to the latest NWS High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center, at the website: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml, for more details. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough remains inland over Africa. The ITCZ enters the Atlantic near 06N11W and continues westward to 00N40W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is noted from the equator to 06N between 20W and 43W. ...GULF OF MEXICO... A cold front is moving across N Florida and the NE Gulf extending westward to near the Louisiana/Texas border. A surface trough persists over the NW Gulf with axis along 95W/96W. Recent scatterometer data provide observations of fresh to strong NE winds over the SE Gulf, including the Yucatan Channel, with moderate to fresh NE winds S of 25N and E of 90W. Similar wind speeds are also noted in the wake of the cold front over the far NE Gulf. Elsewhere, gentle to moderate anticyclonic flow is observed. Seas are generally 2 to 4 ft, except 4 to 6 ft in the southeastern Gulf and eastern Bay of Campeche. A patch of low level clouds, with embedded areas of rain, is affecting the north-central Gulf while a narrow band of clouds is related to the front. For the forecast, a ridge will continue to dominate most of the Gulf waters while a trough will persist over the NW Gulf through tonight. The ridge will shift eastward on Sun, ahead of the next cold front forecast to enter the NW Gulf by Sun evening. Fresh to strong southerly return flow is expected ahead of the front covering the western half of the Gulf by tonight, and extending to the NE Gulf Sun and Sun night. Fresh to strong NW to N winds and rough seas will follow the front, forecast to reach from the western Florida Panhandle to near Tampico, Mexico by Mon morning, and from near Tampa Bay to Veracruz Mexico by Mon evening. Minimal gale conditions are possible over the west-central waters on Mon, and in the Veracruz area by Mon evening. The front will exit the basin on Mon night. High pressure, in the wake of the front, will cover the Gulf waters on Tue producing moderate to fresh N to NE winds. Looking ahead, a trough will develop over the western Gulf on Wed, tightening the pressure gradient and supporting fresh to strong winds on either side of the trough axis. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... Recent satellite derived wind data show fresh to strong winds in the NW caribbean, the Windward Passage and downwind to about 17N, and over the central Caribbean, including the Gulf of Venezuela. These winds are the result of a ridge extending across the Bahamas, Cuba and the NW Caribbean. Seas are 6 to 8 ft in the NW Caribbean, and in the south-central part of the basin. Seas of 4 to 6 ft prevail elsewhere. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are over the SW Caribbean mainly S of 11N, and in the offshore waters of Nicaragua under a diffluent pattern aloft. Patches of low level moisture, producing isolated to scattered passing showers are noted elsewhere across the basin. For the forecast, high pressure N of area will continue to support fresh to strong NE winds in the NW Caribbean and Windward Passage through Sun evening. Similar wind speeds are also expected in the central Caribbean, and parts of the eastern Caribbean, including the Mona Passage, through at least Mon. These winds will diminish Mon night into Tue as the high pressure shifts eastward ahead of the next cold front forecast to enter the NW Caribbean early on Tue. Moderate to fresh N to NE winds and moderate seas are expected behind the front forecast to reach from central Cuba to Belize by Tue evening, and from the Windward Passage to the Gulf of Honduras by Wed morning before dissipating Wed night. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... Please refer to the SPECIAL FEATURES section for information regarding the Gale Warning in the western Atlantic. Looking ahead, gale conditions are expected again across the N waters Mon through Tue night ahead of the next cold front. A new cold front is emerging off the southeast coast of the United States and extends from 31N74W to 28N81W. A stationary front stretches from 31N54W southwestward to eastern Cuba, and a 1021 mb high is centered near 27N45W. Strong to minimal gale force winds is noted per scatterometer data N of 29N and W of 70W while fresh to strong winds dominate the region N of 27N W of 70W. Gentle to moderate winds and moderate to rough seas are observed elsewhere across the Atlantic N of 20N with the exception of fresh southerly winds ahead of a surface trough that runs from 31N27W to 23N32W. Seas are 8 to 9 ft within these winds. A ridge is ahead of the trough and reaches the Madeira and Canary Islands. Moderate to locally fresh winds and moderate to rough seas are noted in the tropical Atlantic. For the forecast, the stationary front will continue to weaken and gradually dissipate today. As previously mentioned, a new cold front is currently moving off the NE Florida coast. Strong to minimal gale force winds and rough to very rough seas will accompany the front mainly north of 29N through early tonight. Then, winds will briefly diminish from west to east on Sun, but a swell event will continue to affect most of the waters E of 70W through Mon. Looking ahead, fresh to strong southerly winds will return to the waters off NE Florida and north of the Bahamas Sun night into Mon, rapidly reaching gale force speeds ahead of the next cold front expected to move off the coast Mon evening. The front will extend from 31N70W to western Cuba by Tue morning, and from 31N57W to SE Bahamas and eastern Cuba Tue night. Another swell event, with very rough seas will follow the front, affecting mainly the waters N of 29N on Tue, and propagating across the area N of 27N and E of 70W on Wed. $$ GR