000 AXNT20 KNHC 032352 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0015 UTC Sat Jan 4 2025 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2330 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Atlantic Gale Warning: A cold front emerging off the southeast coast of the United States will progress eastward this weekend, producing strong to gale force winds north of 27.5N tonight into early Sun. Very rough seas will accompany the strong winds, with seas in excess of 12 ft occurring north of 28N by Sat morning, and north of 24N and east of 70W by Sun morning. Peak seas near 20 ft are possible north of 30W. Winds and very rough seas will expand farther east through the weekend and into early next week. Looking ahead, another strong low pressure system moving off the east coast of the United States will produce widespread strong to gale force winds and very rough seas between the northeast Florida coast and Bermuda early next week. Please, refer to the latest NWS High Seas Forecast, that is issued by the National Hurricane Center, at the website: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml, for more details. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough remains inland over Africa. The ITCZ enters the Atlantic near 06N11W and continues to 02N39W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is noted north of the equator to 08N between 17W and 42W. ...GULF OF MEXICO... A 1021 mb low is centered in the northwestern Gulf of Mexico near 27N93W, and troughing extends to the east to 27N90W, and to the southwest to 25N97W. Moderate to locally fresh NE to E winds are found north of this feature. Elsewhere, a stationary front extends through the northern Yucatan peninsula and troughing prevails in the southwestern Gulf, supporting moderate to fresh NE winds south of 22N and east of 95W. Locally strong NE winds are noted in the eastern Bay of Campeche. Slight to locally moderate seas are found across the basin. For the forecast, a ridge will dominate most of the Gulf waters through Sat night while a weak low with an associated trough will weaken over the NW Gulf and dissipate by Sat. The ridge will shift eastward on Sun, ahead of the next cold front forecast to enter the NW Gulf by Sun evening. Fresh to strong S return flow is expected ahead of the front covering the western half of the Gulf by Sat night, and extending to the NE Gulf Sun and Sun night. Strong to near gale force NW to N winds and rough seas will also follow the front, forecast to reach from Cape San Blas, Florida to near Tampico, Mexico by Mon morning, and from near Tampa Bay to Veracruz, Mexico by Mon evening. The front will exit the basin Mon night into Tue. High pressure, in the wake of the front, will cover the Gulf waters Tue through Wed night, producing gentle to moderate N to NE winds. In the far western Gulf, a trough will develop along the E Mexico coast on Wed, tightening the pressure gradient and supporting fresh to strong N winds. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... A stationary front extends from the central Atlantic southwestward through the southern Bahamas and eastern Cuba through the Yucatan Channel. Fresh NE winds are occurring across the northwestern Caribbean as well as through the Windward Passage and offshore of Colombia, with moderate to locally fresh winds occurring elsewhere. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is occurring along the eastern extent of the Pacific monsoon trough, south of 15N. Seas of 4 to 7 ft prevail across the basin. For the forecast, high pressure N of area will support fresh to strong NE winds in the NW Caribbean, including the Windward Passage, through early Sun night. Similarly fresh to strong NE to E winds will occur in the central and SW basin through Mon. Gentle to moderate NE to E winds in the E Caribbean, including the Mona Passage, will reach fresh to locally strong speeds Sat night through Mon as the high pressure shifts eastward ahead of the next cold front forecast to enter the NW Caribbean early on Tue. The front will reach from central Cuba to Belize by Tue evening and from the Windward Passage to Jamaica Wed morning before dissipating Wed night. Moderate to fresh N to NE winds and moderate seas are forecast in the NW Caribbean with the passage of this front. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... Please refer to the SPECIAL FEATURES section for information regarding the Gale Warning in the western Atlantic. A stationary front extends from 31N54W southwestward through the southern Bahamas and eastern Cuba, and a 1020 mb high is centered near 26N50W. Moderate to locally fresh SW winds are occurring between these two features, generally north of 28N between 45W and 60W. Moderate N winds are occurring east of the center of the ridge. A trough has been analyzed from 31N30W to 22N35W, and moderate to locally fresh SW winds are occurring to the east of the trough axis. South of 20N, moderate to fresh trades and rough seas of 8 to 9 ft prevail. Rough seas generated by a storm system now in the northeastern Atlantic prevail north of 20N and east of 55W, as well as north of 28N east of 70W. Fresh to strong NW winds are occurring off the coast of Florida, north of 28N between the coast and 70W. For the forecast, a stationary front extending from 31N55W to the southern Bahamas and eastern Cuba will continue to weaken and gradually dissipate through tonight, ahead of a reinforcing cold front moving off the NE Florida coast tonight. Strong to gale force winds will occur north of 27.5N tonight into early Sun. Very rough seas will accompany the strong winds, with seas in excess of 12 ft occurring north of 28N by Sat morning, and north of 24N and east of 70W by Sun morning. Peak seas near 20 ft are possible north of 30W. Looking ahead, fresh to near gale-force S winds will return to the waters off NE Florida and north of the Bahamas Sun night into Mon, rapidly reaching gale force speeds ahead of the next cold front expected to move off the coast Mon evening. The front will extend from 31N67W to western Cuba by Tue morning, and from 31N56W to Dominican Republic Tue night, and from 27N55W to the Mona Passage Wed evening. Another swell event with very rough seas will follow the front. $$ ADAMS