000 AXNT20 KNHC 031800 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1815 UTC Fri Jan 3 2025 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1740 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... ...ATLANTIC OCEAN GALE-FORCE WIND WARNING... The forecast for tonight consists of a cold front to be along 31N76W 28N80W. Expect W gale-force winds, and rough to very rough seas, from 30N northward between 66W and 78W. Expect also: strong to near gale-force W to NW winds, and rough seas, from 28N to 31N between 63W and 81W; and strong to near gale-force SW winds, and rough seas, from 27N to 31N between 55W and 64W. Gale-force W to NW winds, and very rough to high seas, are forecast for at least another 15 hours or so after the initial period, from 29N northward between 64W and 74W. Please, refer to the latest NWS High Seas Forecast, that is issued by the National Hurricane Center, at the website: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml, for more details. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough is inland in Africa. The ITCZ passes through the coastal plains of NW Liberia, to 06N17W, 04N25W 02N30W 02N39W. Precipitation: widely scattered to scattered moderate and isolated strong is from 07N southward from 55W eastward. ...GULF OF MEXICO... A surface trough is along 29N89W, to a 1020 mb 28N94W low pressure center, to 25N at the coast of NE Mexico. A second surface trough is along 24N96W 20N96W, to the Isthmus of Tehuantepec of southern Mexico. Fresh winds have been from the first surface trough and the 1020 mb low pressure center northward. Fresh NE winds are within 210 nm of the coast of Mexico between the Windward Passage and the second surface trough. Precipitation: broken to overcast multilayered clouds, and isolated moderate, are to the west of 30N84W 24N90W 23N94W 19N91W. Slight to moderate seas are in the south central sections of the Gulf. Slight seas are in the remainder of the Gulf of Mexico. A ridge will dominate most of the Gulf waters through Sat night while a weak low with associated trough will weaken over the NW Gulf and dissipate by Sat. The ridge will shift eastward on Sun, ahead of the next cold front forecast to enter the NW Gulf by Sun evening. Fresh to strong southerly return flow is expected ahead of the front covering the western half of the Gulf by Sat night, and extending to the NE Gulf Sun and Sun night. Fresh to strong NW to N winds and rough seas will also follow the front, forecast to reach from Cape San Blas, Florida to near Tampico, Mexico by Mon morning, and from near Tampa Bay to Veracruz, Mexico by Mon evening. The front will exit the basin Mon night into Tue. High pressure, in the wake of the front, will cover the Gulf waters on Tue producing gentle to moderate N to NE winds. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... A stationary front passes through 24N70W in the Atlantic Ocean, to Cuba near 21N78W, to the NW tip of the Yucatan Peninsula. A surface trough is along 10N75W at the coast of Colombia, to 19N86W. Precipitation: scattered moderate to widely scattered strong is from 11N to 18N between 80W and 86W. Isolated moderate to locally strong is elsewhere from 75W westward. Mostly fresh to some strong NE winds are from 70W westward. Moderate to fresh NE winds are from 70W eastward. Moderate seas cover the entire area. The 24-hour rainfall totals in inches, for the period that ended at 03/1200 UTC, are: 0.63 in Trinidad; 0.14 in Curacao; 0.05 in Montego Bay in Jamaica; 0.03 in St. Thomas in the Virgin Islands; and 0.02 in Kingston in Jamaica. This information is from the Pan American Temperature and Precipitation Tables/MIATPTPAN. High pressure N of area will support fresh to strong NE winds in the NW Caribbean, including the Windward Passage, through early Sun night. Similarly fresh to strong NE to E winds will happen in the central and SW basin through Mon. Gentle to moderate NE to E winds in the E Caribbean, including the Mona Passage, will reach fresh to locally strong speeds Sat night through Mon as the high pressure shifts eastward ahead of the next cold front forecast to enter the NW Caribbean early on Tue. The front will reach from central Cuba to the western Gulf of Honduras by Tue night and will be followed by fresh to locally strong N to NE winds and moderate to rough seas. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... Please, read the SPECIAL FEATURES section, for details about a Gale-Force Wind Warning in the western Atlantic Ocean. The earlier Atlantic Ocean significant swell event, that was happening behind a cold front, has been subsiding. A surface trough is along 31N30W 20N39W. Rough seas are to the north of 31N25W 16N35W 13N50W 31N60W. Moderate seas are in the remainder of the Atlantic Ocean. Fresh to strong SE winds are from 25N northward between 20W and 28W. Moderate to fresh SE winds are from 15N to 25N between 20W and 35W. Fresh to strong NE winds are from 11N northward from 22W eastward. Precipitation: widely scattered moderate to isolated strong is within 420 nm to the east of the surface trough. A stationary front is along 31N56W 29N60W 24N70W, to Cuba near 21N78W, to the NW tip of the Yucatan Peninsula. Fresh SW winds are within 150 nm to the southeast of the frontal boundary from 28N northward. Fresh NW winds are from 28N northward between 34W and 44W. Strong NE winds are from 13N to 15N between 50W and 57W. Mostly fresh NE winds are from 22N60W 22N52W 19N41W 15N34W southward. Some moderate winds are from 11N southward between 50W and 60W. Moderate or slower winds, and moderate seas, are in the remainder of the Atlantic Ocean. A stationary front extending from 31N57W to the southern Bahamas and eastern Cuba will continue to weaken and gradually dissipate through late today, ahead of a reinforcing cold front expected to move off the NE Florida coast late today. Strong to minimal gale force winds and rough to very rough seas will accompany the front mainly north of 28N late today through early Sat night. Then, winds will briefly diminish from west to east on Sun, but a swell event will continue to affect most of the waters E of 70W through Mon. Looking ahead, fresh to strong southerly winds will return to the waters off NE Florida and north of the Bahamas Sun night into Mon, rapidly reaching gale force speeds ahead of the next cold front expected to move off the coast Mon evening. The front will extend from 31N69W to western Cuba by Tue morning, and from 31N61W to northern Hispaniola Tue night. Another swell event with very rough seas will follow the front. $$ mt/nr