000 AXNT20 KNHC 031033 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1215 UTC Fri Jan 3 2025 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1000 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Atlantic Gale Warning: A cold front will move off the NE Florida coast late today. Strong to minimal gale force winds and rough to very rough seas will accompany the front mainly north of 29N late today through Sat. Then, winds will diminish from west to east on Sun, but a swell event will continue to affect most of the waters E of 70W through Sun night. Seas in excess of 12 ft are expected north of 29N by Sat morning, and north of 25N E of 70W by Sun morning. Peak seas near 20 ft are possible north of 30W. Winds and very rough seas will expand farther east through the weekend and into early next week. Looking ahead, another strong low pressure system moving off the east coast of the United States will produce widespread strong to gale force winds and very rough seas between the northeast Florida coast and Bermuda by early next week. Please refer to the latest NWS High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at the website: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough is now confined inland over Africa. The ITCZ extends from the coast of Sierra Leone near 07N13W to 02N30W to 00N50W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is noted from 02N to 05N between 20W and 30W, and from 00N to 02N between 30W and 45W. ...GULF OF MEXICO... High pressure located over the SE of the United States dominates most of the Gulf waters. A surface trough is analyzed over the NW Gulf along 95W/96W. This pattern is supporting gentle to moderate NE to E winds over the eastern half of the Gulf, and E to SE winds over the western half of the basin, with the exception of fresh to locally strong winds just offshore of the NW Yucatan Peninsula due to local effects. These winds were captured by scatterometer data. Seas are generally 2 to 4 ft in the northern Gulf and 3 to 5 ft in the southern Gulf, slightly higher W of the Yucatan Peninsula. An area of showers, with embedded thunderstorms, is noted over the western Bay of Campeche. For the forecast, a ridge will dominate most of the Gulf waters while a trough will persist over the NW Gulf through Sat night. The ridge will shift eastward on Sun, ahead of the next cold front forecast to enter the NW Gulf by Sun evening. Fresh to strong southerly return flow is expected ahead of the front covering the western half of the Gulf by Sat night, and extending to the NE Gulf Sun and Sun night. Fresh to strong NW to N winds and rough seas will follow the front, forecast to reach from the western Florida Panhandle to near Tampico, Mexico by Mon morning, and from near Tampa Bay to Veracruz Mexico by Mon evening. The front will exit the basin on Mon night into Tue. High pressure, in the wake of the front, will cover the Gulf waters on Tue producing gentle to moderate N to NE winds. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... Recent satellite derived wind data show fresh to strong winds in the lee of Cuba to about 19N, in the Windward Passage, and over the south-central Caribbean near the coast of Colombia. These winds are the result of a building high pressure N of the basin. Seas are generally 4 to 6 ft, except 6 to 8 ft near the coast of Colombia. Multilayer clouds, with embedded showers and isolated thunderstorms cover most of the Caribbean W of 75W. The convective activity is more concentrated in the offshore waters of Nicaragua. Strong winds aloft support this activity. Patches of low level moisture are noted elsewhere across the basin. For the forecast, building high pressure N of area will continue to support fresh to strong winds in the lee of Cuba and in the Windward Passage through Sun. Winds will also increase across the central Caribbean, and parts of the eastern Caribbean, including the Mona Passage, through at least Mon. These winds will diminish Mon night into Tue as the high pressure shifts eastward ahead of the next cold front forecast to enter the NW Caribbean early on Tue. Moderate to fresh N to NE winds and moderate to rough seas are expected behind the front. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... Please see the Special Features section for details about a Gale Warning in the western Atlantic. The swell event over the central Atlantic, behind a cold front extending over the far NE portion of the forecast area, is subsiding. An area of 12 to 13 ft seas is still noted N of 28N E of 45W. Seas are expected to subside below 12 ft by this morning. However, rough seas will continue to affect most of the waters N of 20N E of 50W today. A cold front extends from 31N55W to 24N70W where it becomes stationary to eastern Cuba. Gentle to moderate winds and seas of 8 to 9 ft in NE swell are noted on either side of the front. Another cold front enters the forecast region near 31N31W and extends SW to near 20N40W. Fresh to strong winds and rough seas are observed in the wake of the front, mainly N of 28N and E of 45W. A 1019 mb high pressure is between the above mentioned fronts near 27N51W. A ridge dominates the eastern Atlantic. Moderate to locally fresh trades are seen per scatterometer data across the tropical Atlantic. For the forecast west of 55W, the aforementioned cold front will continue to weaken as it moves eastward, reaching from 31N55W to the SE Bahamas and eastern Cuba this morning. Afterward, the front will stall and gradually dissipate through late today, ahead of a reinforcing cold front expected to move off the NE Florida coast late today. Strong to minimal gale force winds and rough to very rough seas will accompany the front mainly north of 29N late Fri through Sat. Then, winds will diminish from west to east on Sun, but a swell event will continue to affect most of the waters E of 70W through Sun night. Looking ahead, fresh to strong southerly winds will return to the waters off NE Florida and north of the Bahamas Sun night into Mon, rapidly reaching gale force speeds ahead of the next cold front expected to move off the coast Mon evening. The front will extend from 31N70W to western Cuba by Tue morning, and from 31N57W to SE Bahamas and eastern Cuba Tue night. Another swell event, with very rough seas will follow the front. $$ GR