000 AXNT20 KNHC 022355 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0015 UTC Fri Jan 3 2025 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2330 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Central Atlantic Significant Swell Event: A 993 mb complex low pressure system is located north of the area near 39N36W, and a second 997 mb low is centered to the northeast near 40N30W. A cold front extends from the second low to 31N32W to 27N47W, and troughing is noted to the south and east of this front. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is noted north of 22N between 24W and 34W. A wide swath of rough to very rough seas surround the low pressure systems, with 12 to 15 ft seas noted north of 26N between 30W and 50W. Fresh to strong NW winds will continue behind the first cold front north of 26N between 35W and 45W, with fresh to strong SW winds occurring near the trough axis. The low pressure will move little over the next couple of days, and will support N swell and seas in excess of 12 ft north of 26N between 25W and 50W Fri before subsiding into Sat. West Atlantic Gale and Significant Swell Event: An intense storm system will move off the coast of the southeastern United States Fri into Sat. Strong to near-gale force winds will accompany the front mainly north of 26N Fri night, likely reaching gale force north of 29N by early Sat morning, and continuing through Sat evening over the offshore waters between 60W and 75W. Very rough seas will accompany the wind, with seas in excess of 12 ft north of 29N by Sat morning, and north of 25N by Sun morning. Peak seas near 20 ft will be possible north of 30W. Winds and very rough seas will expand farther east through the weekend and into early next week. Looking ahead, another strong low pressure system moving off the east coast of the United States will produce widespread strong winds and very rough seas between the northeast Florida coast and Bermuda by early next week. For more details on the marine conditions, please refer to the latest NWS High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at the website: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic from the coast of Sierra Leone near 07N13W and continues to 06N16W. The ITCZ continues from 06N16W to 00N47W. Widely scattered moderate convection is along and within 100 NM of the ITCZ from 14W to 41W. ...GULF OF MEXICO... A 1020 mb low is centered 27N97W just off the coast of deep south Texas, and a stationary front extends southeastward through the southern Gulf to far western Cuba. Elsewhere, weak ridging is expanding over central and northern portions of the basin. This pattern is supporting moderate NE to SE winds across much of the basin, with locally fresh winds occurring just offshore of the Yucatan Peninsula. Seas of 2 to 4 ft are noted across northeastern portions of the Gulf and through the Bay of Campeche, with 3 to 5 ft seas elsewhere. For the forecast, a weakening stationary front reaching from the Yucatan Channel to a low over the southern tip of Texas will dissipate tonight, leaving a remnant surface trough over the NW offshore waters Fri. A reinforcing cold front will enter the NW Gulf by Sun evening, reach from Tampa Bay to Tampico, Mexico Mon afternoon and exit the basin Mon night into Tue. Fresh to strong S winds seas will proceed the front over the western Gulf Sat extending to the NE Gulf Sun and Sun night. Fresh to strong NW winds and rough seas following the front will affect the basin Sun night into Mon evening. Afterward, N to NE winds will gradually diminish to gentle to moderate speeds through Tue night. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... A stationary front prevails through the Yucatan Channel, with a cold front extending toward the east through northwestern Cuba and the southern Bahamas. Fresh NE winds are pulsing ahead of the fronts through the Atlantic Passages, downwind of Cuba and off the coast of Colombia. Locally strong NE winds are noted surrounding a 1010 mb low centered near 11N75W. Seas of 3 to 6 ft prevail across the basin. Scattered moderate convection is occurring in the southwestern Caribbean, along the eastern extension of the Pacific monsoon trough. For the forecast, the aforementioned stationary front extending across western Cuba into the Yucatan Channel will dissipate Fri. High pressure building north of the area behind the front will continue to support moderate to fresh NE winds across the basin, reaching fresh to strong speeds over the NW Caribbean and offshore of Colombia Fri night through Sun evening. Fresh to strong NE winds will also develop south of Hispaniola Sat evening through Mon. Looking ahead, the winds and seas over the central and eastern basin will diminish Mon night into Tue morning as the high pressure shifts eastward ahead of the next cold front forecast to enter the NW Caribbean Tue afternoon. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... Please see the Special Features section for details about the significant swell event in the central Atlantic and the Gale Warning in the western Atlantic. A cold front extends from 31N60W southwestward through the central Bahamas and into northwestern Cuba. Mainly moderate NW winds are occurring behind the front. Elsewhere, moderate to locally fresh E winds are occurring E of 25W to the African coast between 12N and 22N, surrounding the Cape Verde Islands. The remainder of the basin is dominated by a 1022 mb high centered near 27N58W, supporting gentle to moderate E to NE flow. For the forecast west of 55W, a cold front extending from 31N60W to the central Bahamas to western Cuba will continue to weaken tonight. Afterward, the front will stall and dissipate through late Fri, ahead of a reinforcing cold front expected to move off the NE Florida coast late Fri. Strong to near-gale force winds and rough seas will accompany the front mainly north of 26N Fri night, likely reaching gale force with very rough seas early Sat morning through Sat evening over the offshore waters between 60W and 75W. Winds will further diminish Sun in most areas as high pressure builds eastward behind the front as it exits to the east of region. Looking ahead, fresh to strong southerly winds will return to the waters off NE Florida and north of the Bahamas Sun night into Mon, rapidly reaching gale force speeds ahead of the next cold front expected to move off the coast Mon evening. The front will extend from Bermuda to the central Bahamas by Tue morning and from 31N60W to the southern Bahamas offshore waters Tue night. $$ ADAMS