247 AXNT20 KNHC 012039 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0015 UTC Thu Jan 2 2025 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2030 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Central Atlantic Significant Swell Event: A 990 mb storm force low is north of the area near 38N37W. Associated cold front enters the discussion waters near 31N27W and extends to near 28N30W, becoming stationary to 20N38W. Rough to very rough seas generated from this feature are impacting the central Atlantic waters, with 12 to 15 ft seas noted north of 27N between 25W and 50W. The low pressure will move little over the next couple of days, and will support N swell and seas in excess of 12 ft north of 27N between 25W and 50W through Fri. For more details on the marine conditions, please refer to the latest NWS High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at the website: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near 05N09W to 04N11W. The ITCZ continues from 04N11W to 02N50W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 01N to 05N between 13W and 40W. ...GULF OF MEXICO... A cold front extends from S florida to 25N95W where it becomes stationary to N Mexico. Moderate to fresh winds, and seas of 4-6 ft, are N of the front. S of the front, gentle to moderate winds, and seas of 2-3 ft prevail. For the forecast, moderate to locally fresh NE winds will occur across the basin into early Thu in the wake of a cold front moving southeastward through the Gulf of Mexico. The front will exit the basin and move into the northwestern Caribbean tonight. Ridging will dominate the Gulf on Thu, supporting moderate E to SE winds and slight to moderate seas. The next cold front will move into the northern Gulf on Fri, and locally fresh NE winds will occur along and behind the front. Looking ahead, fresh to locally strong S to SE winds and locally rough seas will develop across much of the basin by early Sun ahead of a robust storm system developing in the central United States. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... Moderate to fresh winds prevail over the central Caribbean, with gentle to moderate winds elsewhere. Seas are in the 4-6 ft range over the central Caribbean, and 2-4 ft elsewhere. For the forecast, winds in the Caribbean will increase tonight as a cold front moves southeastward through the Gulf of Mexico and high pressure prevails across the central Atlantic. The cold front will enter the northwestern basin by early Thu and stall before dissipating Fri. Fresh NE winds can be expected across the central and northwestern Caribbean tonight and across the eastern basin on Thu, with locally strong winds pulsing offshore of Colombia. Locally rough seas will be possible near strong winds. Looking ahead, fresh to strong NE winds and accompanying rough seas will occur across the northwestern and north-central Caribbean on Sat, ahead of a strong front moving through the western Atlantic and Gulf of Mexico. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... Please see the Special Features section for details about the significant swell event in the central Atlantic. A cold front enters the discussion waters near 31N73W to S Florida. Moderate winds are west of the front, with moderate to fresh winds N of 28N within 60 nm east of the front. Seas over these waters are in the 5-7 ft range. A 990 mb storm force low is north of the area near 38N37W. Associated cold front enters the discussion waters near 31N27W and extends to near 28N30W, becoming stationary to 20N38W. Strong to near gale winds are N of 27N W of the front to 48W. Fresh to locally strong winds are N of 28N within 60 nm east of the front. Aside from the area of seas greater than 12 ft discussed in the special features section, seas greater than 8 ft cover the waters N of 24N between 23W and 52W. Elsewhere, winds are generally in the gentle to moderate range with seas of 4-7 ft. For the forecast west of 55W, moderate to fresh W to NW winds will occur north of 28N and west of 60W through tonight in the wake of a cold front moving through the western Atlantic. Locally rough seas will accompany the wind. Elsewhere, moderate to fresh trades and moderate seas will prevail south of 20N through this weekend. Looking ahead, a strong cold front will move off the coast of the southeastern United States on Fri, supporting strong to near gale- force W to NW winds and rough to very rough seas across most areas north of 26N through Sun. $$ AL