000 AXNT20 KNHC 011739 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1815 UTC Wed Jan 1 2025 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1800 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Central Atlantic Significant Swell Event: A 990 mb low is centered north of the area near 37N36W. The associated cold front enters the discussion waters near 31N27W to 22N35W, with a stationary portion of the front extending to 19N39W. Earlier scatterometer data depicted strong to near gale force winds east of the front, north of 28N and west of 22W to the front. Rough to very rough seas generated from this feature are impacting the central Atlantic waters, with 12 to 15 ft seas noted north of 27N between 25W and 50W. The low pressure will move little over the next couple of days, and will support N swell and seas in excess of 12 to 14 ft north of 27N between 25W and 50W through Fri. For more details on the marine conditions, please refer to the latest NWS High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at the website: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough remains inland over Africa. The ITCZ enters the Atlantic through the coast of Liberia near 05N09W and continues to 01N27W and then to near 02N51W. Scattered moderate convection is along and within 300 nm of the ITCZ. ...GULF OF MEXICO... A cold front extends from near Cape Coral, Florida to just south of the mouth of the Rio Grande. Moderate to fresh N to NE winds and 3 to 6 ft seas follow the front over the northern Gulf, gentle moderate breezes and 1 to 3 ft seas are evident elsewhere. In the Bay of Campeche, scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are developing along and near a surface trough paralleling the Mexican coast. For the forecast, moderate to locally fresh NE winds will occur across the basin today into early Thu in the wake of a cold front moving southeastward through the Gulf of Mexico. The front will exit the basin and move into the northwestern Caribbean tonight. Ridging will dominate the Gulf on Thu, supporting moderate E to SE winds and slight to moderate seas. The next cold front will move into the northern Gulf on Fri, and locally fresh NE winds will occur along and behind the front. Looking ahead, fresh to locally strong S to SE winds and locally rough seas will develop across much of the basin by Sun ahead of a robust storm system developing in the central United States. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... Moderate to fresh trade wind flow is prevalent over the eastern and central Caribbean, with 3 to 5 ft seas. Stronger winds are pulsing off Colombia where seas are 4 to 7 ft. Gentle breezes are noted elsewhere over the northwest Caribbean with slight seas. Convergent trade wind flow in the W Caribbean, as well as the East Pacific monsoon trough extending across the far SW Caribbean, are supporting scattered moderate convection across much of the western Caribbean W of 78W and S of 19N. For the forecast, moderate to locally fresh E to NE winds will occur across the Caribbean today. Winds will increase tonight as a cold front moves southeastward through the Gulf of Mexico and high pressure prevails across the central Atlantic. The cold front will enter the northwestern basin by early Thu and stall before dissipating Fri. Fresh NE winds can be expected across the central and northwestern Caribbean tonight and across the eastern basin on Thu, with locally strong winds pulsing offshore of Colombia, through the Windward Passage and downwind of Cuba and Hispaniola. Locally rough seas will be possible near strong winds. Looking ahead, fresh to strong NE winds will occur across the northwestern and north-central Caribbean on Sat ahead of a strong front moving through the western Atlantic and Gulf of Mexico. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... Please see the Special Features section for details about the significant swell event in the central Atlantic. Scattered moderate convection is occurring north of 24N between a warm front analyzed from 25N22W north-northwestward to near 37N27W, and the cold front mentioned in the Special Features section. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are observed E of the warm front through the Canary Islands. Farther west, a cold front enters the discussion waters near 31N76W and extends to the coast of Florida near Vero Beach. Moderate to fresh WNW winds are observed N of the front. Elsewhere, 1020 mb high pressure near 31N58W extends across much of the western/central Atlantic. Light to gentle winds prevail as a result with seas of 4 to 7 ft. South of 17N, gentle to moderate trade winds prevail across the Atlantic to the Lesser Antilles along with moderate seas. SSE of the Lesser Antilles, scattered moderate convection is occurring from 08N to 12N between 56W and the Venezuelan coast due to convergent surface winds associated with the remnants of a stationary front. For the forecast west of 55W, moderate to fresh W to NW winds will occur north of 28N and west of 65W through tonight in the wake of a cold front moving through the western Atlantic. Locally rough seas will accompany the wind. Elsewhere, moderate to fresh trades and moderate seas will prevail south of 20N through this weekend. Looking ahead, a strong cold front will move off the coast of the southeastern United States on Fri, supporting strong to near gale- force W to NW winds and rough to very rough seas across most areas north of 26N through Sun. $$ Adams