000 AXNT20 KNHC 010419 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0615 UTC Wed Jan 1 2025 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0400 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Central Atlantic Significant Swell Event: A 990 mb low is centered north of the area near 35N38W. The associated cold front enters the discussion waters near 31N33W to 20N38W. The latest scatterometer data depicts strong to near gale force winds east of the front, N of 25N and W of 23N to the front. Rough to very rough seas generated from this feature are impacting the central Atlantic waters, with 12 to 15 ft seas noted N of 26N between 28W and 48W. The low pressure will move little over the next couple of days, and will support N swell and seas in excess of 12 to 14 ft north of 27N between 25W and 50W through Fri. For more details on the marine conditions, please refer to the latest NWS High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at the website: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough remains inland over West Africa. The ITCZ extends off the coast of Liberia near 05N09W to 03N30W to the coast of Brazil near 01N50W. Scattered moderate convection is noted along most of the ITCZ from 01N to 08N between 08N and 45W. ...GULF OF MEXICO... A cold front continues to slowly push south and east across the northern Gulf, extending from the Florida Panhandle near 30N86W to just south of Brownsville, TX near 25N97W. A pre-frontal trough extends from 30N84W to 25N96W. The latest scatterometer data depicts gentle to moderate N winds north of the front, with light and variable winds elsewhere across the Gulf. Seas are 3 to 5 ft north of the front, with 1 to 2 ft throughout the rest of the basin. For the forecast, the cold front will slowly progress southeastward through Wed before exiting the basin early Thu. Fresh to locally strong N to NE winds will occur behind the front off the coast of Texas this afternoon into early Thu, with fresh N winds developing across the northeastern Gulf tonight. Moderate to locally fresh NE to E winds will then cover much of the basin Wed into early Thu. Looking ahead, another cold front will enter the northwestern Gulf early Fri, and move southeastward through the basin into this weekend. Fresh to locally strong N to NE winds and moderate to locally rough seas will occur in the wake of the front. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... Scattered showers and thunderstorms are noted along the Eastern Pacific monsoon trough in the SW Caribbean northward to offshore Nicaragua. Otherwise, no other significant convection is observed at this time. The latest scatterometer data depicts moderate to fresh trade winds across the central Caribbean with seas 4 to 6 ft. Gentle trade winds are noted in the eastern basin and light to gentle in the NW basin with seas 2 to 4 ft. For the forecast, moderate to locally fresh trade winds and slight to moderate seas will occur across the basin through Wed. An increasing pressure gradient between ridging in the central Atlantic and a cold front moving southeastward through the Gulf of Mexico will lead to more widespread fresh NE winds across the Caribbean late Wed night through Fri morning. The cold front will enter the northwestern basin by early Thu and stall before dissipating Fri. Winds will pulse to strong speeds each night into Fri offshore of Colombia, through the Windward Passage, and downwind of Hispaniola and Cuba. Locally rough seas will be possible near strong winds. Looking ahead, fresh to strong NE winds will develop across the northwestern and north-central Caribbean on Sat ahead of a strong front moving through the western Atlantic and Gulf of Mexico. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... Please see the Special Features section for details about the significant swell event in the central Atlantic. In the western Atlantic, a trough extends off the Florida coast with isolated thunderstorms noted north of the Bahamas. The latest scatterometer data shows moderate to fresh westerly winds west of the trough and moderate to fresh southwesterly winds east of the trough. South of 26N, winds are light to gentle. Seas in this region are 4 to 6 ft. Outside of the significant swell event in the central Atlantic, high pressure of 1018 mb near 32N59W extends across much of the western/central Atlantic. Light to gentle winds prevail as a result with seas to 6 ft. South of 18N, gentle to moderate trade winds prevail across the Atlantic to the Lesser Antilles with seas to 6 ft. In the eastern Atlantic, gentle to moderate winds extend off the western African coast with seas 4 to 6 ft. A trough extends from 17N24W to 21N24W with scattered moderate convection north of this feature from 17N to 28N between 18W and 27W. For the forecast west of 55W, fresh SW winds will occur off the coast of Florida today ahead of a front moving off the east coast of the United States. Fresh to locally strong W to NW winds will occur behind the front tonight through Wed morning, generally north of 30N between 70W and 80W. The front will progress southeastward through Thu before weakening by late week. Looking ahead, a strong cold front will move off the coast of the southeastern United States on Fri, supporting strong to near gale-force winds and rough to very rough seas across most areas north of 26N into this weekend. $$ AReinhart