000 AXNT20 KNHC 021000 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1215 UTC Mon Dec 2 2024 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0930 UTC. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near 06N11W, then quickly transitions to the ITCZ near 06N13W. The ITCZ continues west- southwestward to near 01N42W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is occurring from 01N to 07N between 18W and 37W. GULF OF MEXICO... A surface parallels the Mexican coast about 60-90 nm offshore from near the Texas-Mexico border to the western Bay of Campeche. East of the trough, modest of the basin has fresh NE to E winds, although strong winds have developed over and downwind of the Florida Straits toward the Yucatan Channel, as the pressure gradient increases as high pressure builds down from the SE U.S. Seas are mainly 3 to 5 ft, except 5 to 7 ft seas offshore western Cuba, in the vicinity of the highest winds. No significant convection is occurring at this time. For the forecast, high pressure building in from the NE will induce fresh NE to E winds and increasing seas over much of the waters early this week. Strong winds will also impact the Florida Straits and waters in the western Gulf. Conditions will improve late week as the high settles over the region. CARIBBEAN SEA... A surface trough has mostly dissipated in the NW Caribbean, but deep tropical moisture pooled to its southwest adjacent to Central America is leading to scattered moderate to isolated strong convection S of 18N and W of 81W. Convection continues southward to offshore Panama, where it is being enhanced by the eastern extension of the East Pacific monsoon trough that is noted along 10N. The pressure gradient between high pressure to the north and lower pressure across Central and South America is leading to fresh NE to E trades across much of the basin, with strong NE winds for the NW Caribbean W of the Cayman Islands, including the Gulf of Honduras and the Yucatan Channel. Seas are 5 to 8 ft. For the forecast, fresh to strong winds in the NW Caribbean will expand in coverage and intensity tonight and Tue, eventually impacting most of the central and western basin, as the pressure gradient tightens between lower pressure over South America and building high pressure to the north. Rough seas will accompany these strong winds. East of the Lesser Antilles, long-period trade-wind induced swell will bring periods of 8 to 10 ft seas this week. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A cold front is stalling from near 31N56W to just E of The Turks and Caicos islands. Convection is now focused mainly behind the front, N of 28N, ahead of another cold front that is currently N of the waters. Behind the front, mainly fresh N winds prevail. Convection associated with surface troughing in the vicinity of the Bahamas has diminished as the feature has weakened. Elsewhere, the Atlantic is dominated by 1032 mb high pressure centered SW of The Azores. S of this ridge, fresh to locally strong trades prevail S of 25N and E of 60W, leading to seas of 8 to 10 ft. Elsewhere, winds and seas are generally moderate. For the forecast W of 55W, the aforementioned stalling front will be overtaken by a stronger reinforcing cold front tonight, and the merged front will move slowly east, eventually coming stationary over the far SE waters late this week. Behind the front, strong NE winds will impact waters N of Hispaniola and Cuba, including waters around the Bahamas and Florida Straits. Another cold front is likely to push off the SE U.S. coast Thu night, possibly bringing some strong winds toward 30N on both sides of it by the end of the week. $$ Konarik