000
AXNT20 KNHC 020523
TWDAT 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0605 UTC Mon Dec 2 2024

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
0600 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near 06N11W, and then
quickly transitions to the ITCZ near 06N12W. The ITCZ then
continues west-southwestward to near 02N41W. Scattered moderate 
convection is occurring from 01N to 07N between 14W and 36W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A trough has been analyzed from 18N95W to 26N95W, with fresh to
strong NE winds to the north of the trough from 25N to 28.5N
between 92W and the coasts of Texas and Mexico. Elsewhere, an 
increasing pressure gradient between ridging over the southeastern
United States and northern Gulf, and a trough in the northwestern
Caribbean is leading to moderate to fresh NE to E winds across 
southern and eastern portions of the basin, while gentle to
moderate NE winds are occurring across northern portions of the 
basin. Seas are 3-7 ft south of 28N, including within the Yucatán
Channel, and 2-4 ft north of 28N.

For the forecast, high pressure from building in from the NE will
induce fresh NE to E winds and building seas over much of the 
waters early this week. Strong winds will also impact the Florida 
Straits and waters offshore Texas. Conditions will improve late 
week as the high settles over the region. 

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A surface trough extends from southeastern Cuba to near 20N81W. 
Scattered moderate to strong convection near the surface trough in
the NW Caribbean is noted south of 18N and west of 82W. Scattered
to numerous moderate to strong convection associated with the 
eastern extent of the Pacific monsoon trough is occurring south of
15N and west of 79W. Otherwise, moderate to fresh trades and seas
of 4-7 ft persist across much of the basin.

For the forecast, fresh winds in the NW Caribbean will increase 
to strong into Mon, then expand in coverage to impact much of the 
basin into mid-week as a tight pressure gradient between high 
pressure over the Gulf of Mexico and SW Atlantic and lower 
pressure toward South America persists. Rough seas can also be 
expected.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front extends from 31N57W to near 24N77W. Scattered 
moderate convection is along and within 120 NM ahead of the front 
north of 26N. Two weak surface troughs are along the central 
Bahamas and off the coast of Florida with scattered showers
observed in the vicinity of these troughs. The Atlantic is 
dominated by 1033 mb high pressure centered SW of the Azores. 
Fresh to strong anticyclonic winds prevail across the basin east 
of 55W with moderate to fresh winds west of 55W. Seas are 4-8 ft 
across open waters. Seas may locally peak to 9 ft in the highest 
winds.

For the forecast W of 55W, a cold front extending from 31N57W to 
just E of The Turks and Caicos will stall Mon, then be overtaken 
by a stronger reinforcing cold front Mon night. The merged cold 
front will move slowly east, reaching 31N53W to just N of 
Hispaniola by Wed, then stalling. Another cold front is likely to 
push off the SE U.S. coast Thu night, possibly bringing some 
strong winds toward 30N on both sides of it by the end of the 
week.

$$
Adams