616 AXNT20 KNHC 240457 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0605 UTC Sun Nov 24 2024 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0457 UTC. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near 12N17W and extends southwestward to 08N20W. The ITCZ extends from 08N20W to 03N49W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 06N to 09N between 31W and 44W. ...GULF OF MEXICO... High pressure is dominating the weather across the basin. Light to gentle variable winds prevail over the Gulf along with slight seas. For the forecast, high pressure will prevail across the basin through the middle of next week. Moderate to fresh southerly winds will develop over the western Gulf tonight, and continue through Mon before diminishing briefly. A weak cold front will move off the coast of Texas Mon night and stall over the NW Gulf Tue before weakening. Moderate to fresh southerly winds will once again develop over the western Gulf on Wed ahead of the next cold front which will move into the NW Gulf Thu. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... A stationary front extends from the SE coast of Cuba SW to the Costa Rica offshore waters with fresh to locally strong N winds and moderate seas observed near and behind the front. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection associated with the front is occurring in the SW basin, where the E extension of the Pacific monsoon trough also supports similar activity. A surface trough is analyzed from the Mona Passage to the north coast of Colombia, and is leading to the development of scattered moderate to isolated strong convection in the vicinity of the trough. Another surface trough is analyzed just W of the Lesser Antilles, with scattered moderate convection observed near this trough as well. Gentle to moderate NE to E winds are ongoing elsewhere along with slight seas. For the forecast, the aforementioned stationary front will dissipate through Sun. Strong N winds W of the front and over the Nicaragua offshores will diminish to fresh speeds tonight. A tightening pressure gradient between developing low pressure in the SW Caribbean and high pressure building over the SW Atlantic subtropical waters will support moderate to fresh NE winds in the Windward Passage and W Caribbean W of 80W through Thu morning, and moderate to fresh easterly winds across the central and eastern basin through Tue morning. Gentle to moderate winds are forecast basin-wide the remainder forecast period. Otherwise, locally strong NE to E winds are likely to develop S of Hispaniola Sun and Mon. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... A cold front that extends from 31N56W SW to just north of Hispaniola has merged with the reinforcing cold front. Fresh to locally strong S to SW winds are behind the merged front with seas 6 to 8 ft. Another cold front has moved into our waters and extends from 31N69W SW to 29N75W. Fresh to strong W to NW winds are behind this front, N of 28N between 60W and 74W with seas 9 to 15 ft. Rough seas are also occurring across areas north of 25N between 62W and 72W. Farther east, a 1021 mb surface high pressure and its associated ridge covers the central subtropical waters with gentle to moderate variable winds. A pre-frontal trough dominates the eastern subtropical Atlantic waters, producing numerous moderate to scattered strong convection N of 27N between 18W and 23W. Fresh to locally strong winds and rough seas are ongoing over this region. Elsewhere, moderate to locally fresh NE winds prevail along with moderate seas. For the forecast west of 55W, the aforementioned merged front will move E of the area by Sun evening. Fresh to near gale force W to NW winds between both fronts and N of 28N will continue to affect the northern offshore waters through Sun morning, however rough seas affecting the offshore waters E of the Bahamas and N of 24N will gradually diminish through Wed. A low pressure will develop near the Turks and Caicos late Tue, supporting fresh to strong winds across the S Bahamas offshore waters. The low will stall in the S Bahamas offshore waters before opening into a surface trough Thu. The next cold front will enter the NE Florida offshore waters Tue evening before stalling and lifting N of the area late Wed. A stronger cold front is forecast to move to the NE Florida offshore waters Thu night into Fri with strong winds and rough seas. $$ KRV