000 AXNT20 KNHC 152336 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0005 UTC Sat Nov 16 2024 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2300 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Tropical Storm Sara is centered near 16.2N 86.3W at 15/0000 UTC or 30 nm SW of Isla Guanaja Honduras, moving W at 2 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 997 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 45 kt with gusts to 55 kt. Peak seas are estimated to be around 14 ft. Convective bands associated with the circulation of Sara are affecting most of the NW Caribbean, Honduras, Belize, El Salvador, eastern Guatemala, western Nicaragua, and the Mexican State of Quintana Roo. A continued slow westward motion is expected over the next day or so, followed by a more west-northwestward motion beginning late Saturday. On the forecast track, the center of Sara will continue to move near the northern coast of Honduras during the next day or so before approaching Belize, and then move onshore in Belize during the day on Sunday. Some slight strengthening is possible over the next day or so, as long as the system remains offshore. Through early next week, rainfall amounts of 15 to 25 inches with isolated storm totals around 35 inches are expected over northern Honduras. This rainfall will lead to widespread areas of life-threatening and potentially catastrophic flash flooding and mudslides, especially along and near the Sierra La Esperanza. Elsewhere across the rest of Honduras, Belize, El Salvador, eastern Guatemala, western Nicaragua, and the Mexican State of Quintana Roo, Tropical Storm Sara is expected to produce 5 to 10 inches of rain with localized totals around 15 inches through early next week. This will result in areas of flash flooding, perhaps significant, along with the potential of mudslides. Storm surge could raise water levels by as much as 1 to 3 feet above normal tide levels along the immediate coast in areas of onshore winds along the northern coast of Honduras. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves. A storm surge could raise water levels by as much as 1 to 3 feet above ground level near and to the north of where the center of Sara crosses the coast of Belize. Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National Hurricane Center at website - https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml and the latest Sara NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at www.hurricanes.gov for more details. Atlantic Gale Warning and a Significant Swell Event: A cold front extends from a 992 mb extratropical low located N of area near 33N72W to 31N72W to south-central Florida. Fresh to strong winds are on either side of the front N of 28N. Rough to very rough seas are currently noted in the wake of the front. These seas are expected to dominate waters N of 28N between 65W and 78W by tonight. As the low and front move southeastward, gale-force NW winds to 40 kt are expected to move S of 31N this evening, and shift as far south as 28N late tonight through Sat morning, then gradually lift north of 31N by Sat evening as the low and cold front progress eastward. Seas in excess of 20 ft are expected with these gale-force winds. Southerly gales are also expected to occur in a narrow 90 nm wide band east of the front and N of 29N tonight through Sat morning. By Sat morning, the front will extend from near Bermuda to the central Bahamas. By Sun morning, the front will reach from 30N55W to near Puerto Rico, but with only fresh winds N of 29N by then. Very rough seas of 10 ft and greater in northerly swell will follow this front through the weekend, reaching as far south of 21N in Sun, before fading early next week. Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National Hurricane Center at website - https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough extends across equatorial Africa. The ITCZ extends from 08N16W to 05N40W to 10N57W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted from 02N to 09N between 15W and 42W. ...GULF OF MEXICO... A cold front extends across south-central Florida just south of Lake Okeechobee, and enters the Gulf of Mexico near Fort Meyers, then extends southwestward to near the NW coast of the Yucatan Peninsula into the Bay of Campeche. Moderate to locally fresh N to NE winds follow the front with seas of 4 to 7 ft, except 2 to 3 ft in the NW portion of the Gulf. Ahead of the front, winds have shifted NE to E at gentle to moderate speed, with 2 to 4 ft seas. For the forecast, the cold front will continue to slowly progress southeastward through tonight before dissipating. Moderate to locally fresh NE winds will occur along and behind the front. A tightening pressure gradient between Tropical Storm Sara in the NW Caribbean and building high pressure in the southeastern U.S. will support widespread moderate to locally fresh E winds over southern and eastern portions of the basin tonight through Sat, with widespread moderate to fresh E to SE winds developing across much of the basin Sat night, with the exception of the Bay of Campeche. SE winds will become strong offshore of Texas late Sun into early next week ahead of a strong cold front moving through the Southern Plains. Rough seas in SE swell will accompany the winds. Looking ahead, Tropical Storm Sara is expected to quickly weaken as the system moves over the Yucatan Peninsula this weekend before emerging into the Bay of Campeche early next week as a remnant low. Locally strong winds and rough seas will be possible surrounding the system. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... Please see the SPECIAL FEATURES section for information on Tropical Storm Sara. Bands of showers and thunderstorms continue across much of the Caribbean west of 80W in association with Tropical Storm Sara as described above. Aside from Sara, light to gentle winds are found east of 75W, with moderate to fresh S to SW winds west of 75W. Seas are 3 ft or less east of 75W, except 6 to 7 ft through the NE Caribbean passages. A frontal boundary has stalled along the north coasts of the Greater Antilles, from Puerto Rico to eastern Cuba, and is accompanied by scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms. For the forecast, the center of Tropical Storm Sara will continue to move near the northern coast of Honduras during the next day or so before approaching Belize, and then move onshore in Belize during the day on Sunday. Away from the direct impacts from Sara, fresh to locally strong NE to E winds will occur over the northwestern Caribbean over the next several days. Large N swell will continue to support locally rough seas through the Atlantic passages this weekend. A strong cold front slated to move through the western Atlantic this weekend will reinforce rough seas through the Atlantic passages for the second half of this weekend into next week. Fresh to strong NE to E winds look to develop on Sun through the Atlantic passages and in the lee of Cuba, continuing into early next week. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... Please refer to the SPECIAL FEATURES section above for more information about the ongoing swell event over the Atlantic and an upcoming Gale Warning associated with a vigorous cold front currently moving across the SW N Atlantic. Another cold front extends from 31N46W to 19N58W then becomes stationary along the north coasts of the Greater Antilles, from Puerto Rico to eastern Cuba. A band of showers, with embedded thunderstorms is ahead of the front over the Atlantic waters. Moderate to locally fresh S to SW winds are noted north of 24N ahead of the front to about 42W, where seas are 6 to 8 ft. In the wake of the front gentle to moderate winds prevail with seas of 8 to 12 ft in NW to N swell. A weak 1013 mb high is centered W of the front near 25N60W, producing mainly gentle to moderate anticyclonic winds west of the front and away from the new front that is moving across the SW N Atlantic and south-central Florida. Please, see the Special Features section for more information. Farther E, over the eastern Atlantic, another cold front extends from the eastern Canary Islands to 24N23W then becomes a frontal trough to 28N34W. Seas of 7 to 10 ft in NE swell are north of this third front. Seas are 5 to 7 ft across the remainder of the open waters east of the central Atlantic front. For the forecast west of 55W, the stationary front located just north of the Greater Antilles will meander southeastward into this evening before dissipating. Large N swell behind the front will continue to support rough to very rough seas before subsiding into early Sat. The strong cold front extending off the southeastern U.S. will progress quickly toward the east through tomorrow. This front will bring gale force winds and very rough seas. Please, see the Special Features section for more details. Rough seas will sweep through the western Atlantic waters into early next week. A reinforcing front or trough may clip the NE waters Tue and Tue night with increasing winds and building seas. $$ GR