000 AXNT20 KNHC 140556 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0005 UTC Thu Nov 14 2024 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0600 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Potential Tropical Cyclone Nineteen is centered near 16.0N 81.2W at 14/0600 UTC or 130 nm ENE of Cabo Gracias A Dios On Nic/hon Border, moving W at 10 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 25 kt with gusts to 35 kt. A slow westward motion should continue for another day or two, taking the system across the western Caribbean Sea. The disturbance is expected to stall and meander near the north coast of Honduras late Friday and through the weekend. The system is forecast to become a tropical storm on Thursday and continue strengthening, if it remains over water. Through early next week, rainfall amounts of 10 to 20 inches with isolated storm totals around 30 inches area expected over northern Honduras. This rainfall will lead to widespread areas of life-threatening and potentially catastrophic flash flooding and mudslides, especially along and near the Sierra La Esperanza. Storm surge could raise water levels by as much as 1 to 3 feet above normal tide levels along the immediate coast near in areas of onshore winds along the northern coast of Honduras. Near the coast,the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves. Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National Hurricane Center at website - https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml and the latest Nineteen NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at www.hurricanes.gov for more details. Excessive Rainfall Risk in Southern Central America: Persistent SW flow in the eastern Pacific region will continue to bring abundant tropical moisture across southern Central America. Latest model guidance indicates that the present moderate SW flow offshore Costa Rica and Panama is expected to increase toward the end of the week and into the upcoming weekend as Potential Tropical Cyclone Nineteen meanders over the western Caribbean Sea. The abundant tropical moisture will be the driver for potentially heavy rainfall to occur in Costa Rica and in western Panama. This information is provided by the Weather Prediction Center's International desk team. Please refer to your national weather agency for details. Atlantic Gale Warning: A cold front extends from 29N55W to the Turks and Caicos and central Cuba near 22N77.5W. Ongoing rough seas are behind the front and will spread southeast as the front reaches from 25N55W to near the N coast of the Dominican Republic early Thu with the front exiting Thu night. A second cold front is forecast to enter the NW offshore waters Thu night into Fri, affecting the offshore waters north of 25N with fresh to near gale force winds through early Sun, reaching gale force north of 29N between 70W and 77W Fri evening and spreading east to 60W into early Sat. Rough seas will follow the second front through the weekend, decaying early next week. Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National Hurricane Center at website - https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near 0713W and continues westward to near 07N16W. The ITCZ extends from 07N16W to 03N40W. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are observed in the vicinity of these features. ...GULF OF MEXICO... A surface trough extends from SE Louisiana to western Cuba. The pressure gradient between the trough and a ridge of high pressure extending over the eastern US supports fresh to strong E to SE winds on the E side of the trough. Moderate to locally fresh W to NW winds and moderate seas are W of the trough axis. Light to gentle winds and slight seas are ongoing over the remainder of the western half of the Gulf. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are within about 100 nm E of the trough. Fresh to strong NE to E winds are occurring across the Straits of Florida in the wake of a cold front that is draped over central and western Cuba. For the forecast, the aforementioned trough will merge with the next frontal boundary that will move across the eastern Gulf by early Thu, sagging southeast through the end of the week. Meanwhile, Potential Tropical Cyclone Nineteen is in the western Caribbean Sea near 16.1N 80.2W at 10 PM EST, and is moving west at 8 kt. Maximum sustained winds are 25 kt with gusts to 35 kt, and the minimum central pressure is 1005 mb. Nineteen will move to 16.1N 82.1W Thu morning, 16.2N 83.8W Thu evening as it becomes a Tropical Storm, move to 16.3N 84.7W Fri morning, 16.2N 85.1W Fri evening, 16.0N 85.1W Sat morning, and 15.9N 85.1W Sat evening. Nineteen will change little in intensity as it moves to 16.6N 86.6W late Sun, 19.3N 89.1W over the Yucatan Mon night. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... Please see the SPECIAL FEATURES section for information on Potential Tropical Cyclone Nineteen. Satellite derived wind data indicate fresh NE winds in the lee of east-central Cuba, and moderate to fresh E winds across the western Caribbean away from Potential Tropical Cyclone Nineteen. Seas are 4 to 6 ft in association with these winds. Light to gentle winds and seas of 2 to 4 ft dominate the eastern Caribbean. A narrow band of showers and thunderstorms ahead of the Atlantic cold front is over eastern Cuba. For the forecast, Potential Tropical Cyclone Nineteen will move to 16.1N 82.1W Thu morning, 16.2N 83.8W Thu evening as it becomes a Tropical Storm, move to 16.3N 84.7W Fri morning, 16.2N 85.1W Fri evening, 16.0N 85.1W Sat morning, and 15.9N 85.1W Sat evening. Nineteen will change little in intensity as it moves to 16.6N 86.6W late Sun, 19.3N 89.1W over the Yucatan Mon night. Elsewhere, gentle to moderate winds and slight to moderate seas will prevail through the forecast period, with higher seas to around 8 ft in Atlantic passages. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... Please see the SPECIAL FEATURES section above for information on a pair of cold fronts that will lead to gale-force winds in the Atlantic later this week and weekend. A cold front extends from 31N55W to central and western Cuba. Strong high pressure of 1038 mb is located over eastern Canada, with the resulting pressure gradient supporting fresh to strong N to NE winds and rough seas in the wake of the front, while fresh to strong SE to S winds and rough seas are noted N of 26N and E of the front to about 48W. High pressure dominates the remainder of the Atlantic forecast waters E of the front. A band of showers and isolated thunderstorms is well ahead of the front, generally north of 18N and west of 44W. Elsewhere across the Atlantic, gentle to moderate winds and moderate to rough seas in NW swell prevail. For the forecast W of 55W, fresh to strong winds prevail ahead and behind a cold front extending from 29N55W to the Turks and Caicos and central Cuba near 22N77.5W. Ongoing rough seas are behind the front and will spread southeast as the front reaches from 25N55W to near the N coast of the Dominican Republic early Thu with the front exiting Thu night. A second cold front is forecast to enter the NW offshore waters Thu night into Fri, affecting the offshore waters north of 25N with fresh to near gale force winds through early Sun, reaching gale force north of 29N between 70W and 77W Fri evening and spreading east to 60W into early Sat. Rough seas will follow the second front through the weekend, decaying early next week. $$ Adams