000 AXNT20 KNHC 021007 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1205 UTC Wed Oct 2 2024 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1000 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Hurricane Kirk is centered near 17.5N 42.1W at 02/0900 UTC or 1040 nm W of the Cabo Verde Islands, moving NW at 12 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 984 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 70 kt with gusts to 85 kt. Peak seas are estimated at 28 ft. Numerous moderate to scattered strong convection is noted from 16N to 19N between 40W and 44W. Scattered moderate to strong convection is observed in a large band extending around the northern and eastern portions of the circulation. Kirk is moving toward the northwest and this general motion is expected to continue for the next few days. Additional strengthening is forecast during the next few days, and Kirk is expected to become a major hurricane by Thursday. Seas 8 ft or greater associated with Kirk are expected to dominate a large area between 35W and 50W today, and between 35W and 55W on Thu. Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National Hurricane Center at website - https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml and the latest Kirk NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at www.hurricanes.gov for more details. Eastern Tropical Atlantic (AL91): Showers and thunderstorms continue to show signs of organization in association with an area of low pressure located a few hundred miles south-southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands. Environmental conditions appear conducive for further development of this system, and a tropical depression is expected to form during the next day or so while it moves slowly westward over the eastern tropical Atlantic. This system has a high chance of tropical cyclone formation through the next 48 hours. Please, refer to the latest NHC Tropical Weather Outlook at www.hurricanes.gov for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... Please refer to the Special Features section for details on the tropical wave associated with AL91. Its axis is along 27W/28W S of 15N. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic Ocean along the coast of Senegal coast near 15.5N17W and continues southwestward to a 1007 mb low pressure (AL91) located near 11N26W, and then west- northwestward to 12N32W. It then resumes SW of Kirk near 13N44W and extends to 11.5N57W. Aside for the convection associated with AL91 and Kirk, scattered moderate convection is noted from 03N to 11N between 16W and 32W, while scattered moderate to strong convection is noted from 08N to 13N between 36W and 53W. GULF OF MEXICO... A surface trough is analyzed from near Tampa Bay southwestward across the Gulf to the eastern Bay of Campeche. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is observed over the SW Gulf, mainly S of 23N and W of 90W. Abundant cloudiness with embeded showers and thunderstorms dominate most of the eastern Gulf. Recent satellite scatterometer wind data indicate strong to near gale force NW to N winds over the western Bay of Campeche and W of the above mentioned trough. Fresh to strong northerly winds are also noted over the western Gulf mainly S of 25N and W of 94W. Seas are 5 to 87 ft within these winds, highest near the Veracruz area. Elsewhere, gentle to moderate winds and seas of 3 to 5 ft prevail, with the exception of 1 to 3 ft over the eastern Gulf. For the forecast, a broad trough of low pressure is producing a large area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms from the southwestern Caribbean Sea into the southern Gulf of Mexico. Fresh to strong NW to N winds and rough seas are expected W of the trough over the SW Gulf, including the Veracruz area, through at least Fri. Environmental conditions could support some gradual development of this system, and a tropical depression could form over the weekend as the broader disturbance moves fully into the Gulf of Mexico. Interests along the U.S. Gulf Coast should continue to monitor the progress of this system. Elsewhere, gentle to moderate winds and slight to moderate seas will prevail trough Fri. Looking ahead, increasing winds and building seas are forecast for the NE and north-central Gulf during the upcoming weekend. CARIBBEAN SEA... An upper-level low spinning over the northwestern Caribbean is helping to induce an area of showers and thunderstorms over much the waters from 15N to 20N between 80W and 84W. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are also noted in the Yucatan Channel, and in the Bay of Campeche. Conmvection has flared up over western Venezuela and parts of Colombia. A weak pressure gradient dominates the basin supporting mainly light to gentle winds, except gentle to moderate E to SE winds W of 85W, including the Gulf of Honduras. Seas are generally 1 to 3 ft, except for the NW Caribbean where seas are 3 to 4 ft. For the forecast, a broad trough of low pressure is producing a large area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms from the southwestern Caribbean Sea into the southern Gulf of Mexico. Environmental conditions could support some gradual development of this system, and a tropical depression could form over the weekend as the broader disturbance moves fully into the Gulf of Mexico. Regardless of development, moderate to fresh E to SE winds will affect the NW Caribbean through Fri. Elsewhere, light to gentle winds are expected. Looking ahead, seas generated by hurricane Kirk may reach the offshore waters E of the Leeward Islands Fri night into Sat. ATLANTIC OCEAN... Please refer to the Special Features section on Hurricane Kirk and invest area AL91. A 1009 mb surface low, associated with the remnants of Tropical Storm Joyce, is located near 25N51W. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are across the NE semicircle of this system. A band of showers and thunderstorms extends NE of the remnants of Joyce covering much of the waters N of 25N between 40W and 48W. Scatterometer data indicate that the remnants of Joyce have open up into a trough with moderate to fresh winds on either side of it and seas to 8 ft. Over the western Atlantic, a weak high pressure of 1013 mb located northeast of the Bahamas continues to produce a broad and weak ridge dominating the region W of 55W. This feature supports light to gentle winds and seas of 3 to 5 ft W of 55W. A 1024 mb high pressure located midway between the Madeira and the Azores Islands extends a ridge SW across the eastern Atlantic, N of 20N and E of 40W. A moderate to fresh anticyclonic flow is observed under the influence of this system. E of 65W, seas are 5 to 7 ft outside of the tropical systems. For the forecast W of 55W, weak high pressure will continue to dominate the forecast region producing mainly gentle to moderate winds and slight to moderate seas through this evening. A low pressure moving eastward N of the area will bring fresh to strong NW to N winds and rough seas, mainly across the area N of 27N and E of 70W beginning tonight. Seas generated by hurricane Kirk are forecast to reach the eastern forecast waters Thu night into Fri. Rough to very rough seas are expected during the upcoming weekend, particularly E of 60W. $$ GR