091 AXNT20 KNHC 272357 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0005 UTC Fri Sep 27 2024 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2350 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Tropical Storm Joyce is centered near 18.6N 44.0W at 27/2100 UTC or 1090 nm E of the Northern Leeward Islands, moving NW at 11 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1001 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 45 kt with gusts to 55 kt. Peak seas at 14 ft extend 75 nm in the NE quadrant of the center. Scattered to numerous moderate to isolated strong convection is from 17N to 24N between 40W and 47W. Some additional strengthening is possible through early Saturday, followed by gradual weakening through early next week. Please read the latest High Seas and Offshore Waters Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center (NHC) at websites - https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml and https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/offshore.php for more information. For the latest NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory on Joyce, please visit www.hurricanes.gov for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave is in the E Atlantic extending from 08N to 20N with axis near 27W, moving westward around 10 kt. Widely scattered moderate convection is noted from 10N to 17N between 21W and 29W. A tropical wave is in the central Caribbean with axis near 69W, moving westward at 15 to 20 kt. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are noted over central and E Caribbean Sea between 63W and 71W, including Puerto Rico. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic along 14N17W then runs westward to 16N27W before turning southwestward to 12N37W. The ITCZ continues southwestward to 08N50W. Numerous moderate to strong convection prevail south of the trough over the offshores of W Africa. Scattered moderate convection is elsewhere from 07N to 12N between 32W and 50W. The eastern end of the East Pacific monsoon trough is triggering isolated showers and thunderstorms across the SW Caribbean waters S of 13N. ...GULF OF MEXICO... The tail of a cold front extends across northeastern Florida, then transitions into a surface trough from Cedar Key, Florida to 25N90W SW to near Tampico, Mexico. Middle to upper level divergence support scattered showers and tstms across the Straits of Florida and the Yucatan Channel. Winds are moderate to fresh from the SW over the NE Gulf N of 28N and seas are moderate to 6 ft. Light to gentle winds and moderate seas to 6 ft are elsewhere. For the forecast, moderate to fresh winds over the NE Gulf waters will diminish Sat. Light to gentle winds and slight seas will prevail elsewhere through Tue. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... The passage of a tropical wave across the central Caribbean is supporting moderate to fresh trades over that region where scattered showers and tstms are also ongoing. Gentle to moderate trades are over the E basin while light to gentle winds are ongoing elsewhere. Seas are moderate to 5 ft over the central and E Caribbean and slight to moderate across the remainder basin. For the forecast, winds over the central Caribbean will diminish to gentle to moderate speeds Sat as the wave moves to the western basin. Gentle to locally moderate winds will continue elsewhere through Tue night. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... Please read the SPECIAL FEATURES section regarding Tropical Storm Joyce. Post-Tropical Cyclone Helene is inland well away from the region near 37.5N 85.5W at 5 PM EDT. However, moderate to fresh southerly winds and rough seas to 11 ft continue to affect the offshore waters of E Florida to 72W as well as the northern Bahamas. A weak surface ridge covers the remainder waters E of the Bahamas to 55W and N of 23N, which is supporting light to gentle variable winds and moderate seas. South of 23N, trades winds are moderate to fresh, including N of Hispaniola. Surface ridging covers the subtropical waters of the E Atlantic, and the pressure gradient between the ridge and Tropical Storm Joyce and a tropical wave supports moderate to fresh NE to E winds and moderate seas to 7 ft. For the forecast W of 55W, moderate to fresh SW winds associated with the broad circulation of the remnants of Helene will diminish to gentle to moderate speeds Sat. Winds will further diminish Sun and then prevail through mid week. $$ Ramos