000 AXNT20 KNHC 100558 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0605 UTC Tue Sep 10 2024 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0530 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Strong winds, and a dangerous storm surge, are expected along the coast of Louisiana tomorrow. The hazards that will be affecting land are: tropical storm-force winds on Tuesday, and hurricane- force winds on Wednesday; rainfall; storm surge; and surf. The center of Tropical Storm Francine, at 10/0600 UTC, is in the western Gulf of Mexico, near 24.3N 96.3W. This position is also about 111 nm/205 km to the SSE of the mouth of the Rio Grande; and about 37364 nm/690 km, to the SSW of Cameron in Louisiana. Francine is moving toward the NNW, or 340 degrees 04 knots. The estimated minimum central pressure is 992 mb. The maximum sustained wind speeds are 55 knots with gusts to 65 knots. Winds of 50 knots are within: 20 nm of the center in the NE quadrant; within 30 nm of the center in the SE quadrant; within 0 nm of the center in the SW quadrant; and within 0 nm of the center in the NW quadrant. Tropical storm force winds are: within 50 nm of the center in the NE quadrant; within 120 nm of the center in the SE quadrant; within 100 nm of the center in the SW quadrant; and within 120 nm of the center in the NW quadrant. The sea heights of 12 feet or greater are: within 60 nm of the center in the NE quadrant; within 180 nm of the center in the SE quadrant; within 210 nm of the center in the SW quadrant; and within 240 nm of the center in the NW quadrant. The maximum sea height value is 18 feet. Precipitation: scattered to numerous strong is from 110 nm to 280 nm of the center in the NE quadrant. Scattered to numerous strong is within 130 nm of the center in the W quadrant. Please, consult bulletins and forecasts from your local weather office. Please, read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST, that is issued by the National Hurricane Center, at the website - https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml, and the latest NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory, at www.hurricanes.gov, for more details. Central Tropical Atlantic Ocean (AL92): A 1012 mb low pressure center is near 15N41W. Precipitation: scattered to numerous strong is within 120 nm of the center in the NW quadrant. Strong winds, and moderate to rough seas, are within 180 nm of the center in the NW quadrant. The environmental conditions are only marginally conducive for some slight development during the next few days. It is possible, still, that a tropical depression may form while the system meanders in the central tropical Atlantic Ocean. The chance for development into a tropical cyclone during the next 48 hours is medium. Please, refer to the latest NHC Tropical Weather Outlook, at hurricanes.gov, for details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 19W/20W, from 17N southward, moving westward 10 knots to 15 knots. Precipitation: any nearby precipitation also is related to the monsoon trough. Widely scattered moderate to isolated strong is from 08N to 19N from 23W eastward. An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 56W/57W, from 20N southward, moving westward 15 knots. Precipitation: isolated moderate to locally strong is within 240 nm to the west of the tropical wave, and within 360 nm to the east of the tropical wave. A Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 74W, from 20N southward, moving westward 10 knots to 15 knots. Precipitation: widely scattered to scattered moderate, and isolated strong, is from 17N to 20N between 72W and the Windward Passage. The comparatively greatest concentration of precipitation is in the coastal waters of SW Haiti. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough passes through the coastal plains of Senegal near 14N17W, to the first 1012 mb low pressure center that is near 12N32W. The monsoon trough continues to the AL92 low pressure center, and then to a second 1012 mb low pressure center that is near 12N52W. Precipitation: widely scattered moderate to isolated strong is from 07N to 15N from 35W eastward. Isolated moderate to locally strong is in the remainder of the area that is from 20N southward from 60W eastward. GULF OF MEXICO... Please, read the SPECIAL FEATURES section, for details about Tropical Storm FRANCINE, that is in the western sections of Gulf of Mexico. A weak stationary front has been from 27N to 29N between 80W and 94W. Precipitation: isolated moderate to locally strong is from 24N northward between 67W in the Atlantic Ocean and 90W in the Gulf of Mexico. Moderate to rough seas are elsewhere, to the west and southwest of the line that runs from the middle Texas Gulf coast to the NW corner of the Yucatan Peninsula. Slight seas are in the remainder of the Gulf of Mexico. Moderate or slower winds are from 27N southward from 88W eastward. Fresh to strong winds are elsewhere between 88W and 94W. Tropical Storm Francine is near 24.3N 96.2W at 11 PM EDT, and is moving north-northwest at 4 kt. Maximum sustained winds are 55 kt with gusts to 65 kt, and the minimum central pressure is 992 mb. Francine will strengthen to a hurricane near 24.9N 96.0W Tue morning, move to 26.2N 95.2W Tue evening, 27.9N 93.7W Wed morning, inland 29.9N 92.2W Wed evening, then weaken back to a tropical storm near 32.4N 90.9W Thu morning, continuing to move away from the Gulf. Associated rough to very rough seas will persist off the coast of Veracruz and Tamaulipas through tonight. Looking ahead, winds and seas will diminish across the Gulf Thu through Fri, however westerly swell will impact the southeastern Gulf Thu through Fri. High pressure will become established over the north- central Gulf Sat and Sat night. CARIBBEAN SEA... The southernmost part of an upper level trough is reaching the Dominican Republic. Broad upper level anticyclonic wind flow covers the areas that are from Hispaniola westward. Isolated moderate to locally strong convective precipitation is between 60W and 70W. Moderate to fresh NE winds, and slight to moderate seas, are in the central one-third of the Caribbean Sea. Moderate or slower winds, and slight seas, are in the remainder of the Caribbean Sea. The monsoon trough is along 11N, from 73W in Colombia beyond southern Nicaragua/northern Costa Rica, and into the Pacific Ocean. Precipitation: widely scattered moderate to isolated strong is from 14N southward from 75W westward. The 24-hour rainfall totals in inches, for the period that ended at 10/0000 UTC, are: 0.81 in Guadeloupe. This information is from the Pan American Temperature and Precipitation Tables/MIATPTPAN. A tropical wave over the central Caribbean from near the Windward Passage southward to Colombia will move across the remainder of the Caribbean through the end of the week. Moderate to fresh winds will pulse offshore eastern Honduras and also in the S-central Caribbean, with mainly gentle to moderate trades elsewhere. Slight to moderate seas will prevail across the basin. ATLANTIC OCEAN... Please, read the Special Features section, for details about the INVEST low pressure center, AL92, that is in the central part of the tropical Atlantic Ocean. A stationary front extends from a 1015 mb 32N75W low pressure center, beyond 29N81W at the Florida east coast, and into the Gulf of Mexico. Precipitation: widely scattered moderate to isolated strong is from 24N northward from 68W westward. A surface trough curves away from a 1019 mb 33N51W low pressure center, through 31N44W to 25N49W. Precipitation: isolated moderate is from 24N northward between 40W and 60W. Fresh cyclonic winds are from 10N to 21N between 25W and 37W, around the 1012 mb 12N32W low pressure center. Fresh to strong NE winds are from 17N northward from 26W eastward. Fresh to strong easterly winds are from Hispaniola to 23N between 68W and 75W. Moderate or slower winds are elsewhere from the monsoon trough northward. Mostly fresh to some strong SE winds are from 05N southward between 38W and 46W. Fresh southerly winds are from 06N southward between 25W and 40W, and from 10N southward between 10W and 25W. Moderate to rough seas are from the Equator southward between 30W and 40W. Slight seas are from 13N southward between 50W and 60W; from 22N to 27N between 20W and 40W; and from 75W westward. Moderate seas are in the remainder of the Atlantic Ocean. A stationary front extends from 31N76W southwestward to N-central Florida. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are N of 27N and W of 68W. The front may make some southward progress before stalling from NW of Bermuda to near Cape Canaveral, Florida by Wed, with slightly higher winds and seas N of it. Across the remainder SW North Atlantic waters, winds should remain gentle to moderate, except S of 25N and E of the Bahamas where moderate to locally fresh winds are forecast through tonight. Mainly slight to moderate seas will prevail S of the front through the next few days. $$ mt/jl