000
AXNT20 KNHC 011043
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1205 UTC Sun Sep 1 2024

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
1000 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave in the eastern Atlantic is along 32W, south of 
20N, moving westward at 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is 
observed from 06N to 15N and between 25W and 41W.

A tropical wave in the central Atlantic is along 51W, south of 
20N, moving westward at 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is 
noted from 07N to 12N and between 51W and 58W. 

A tropical wave in the western Caribbean and crossing into the
Pacific is along 89W, south of 20N, moving westward at 15 kt. The
tropical wave extends across southeastern Mexico through El
Salvador and into the eastern Pacific. Scattered showers and 
isolated thunderstorms are present along the Pacific coast of 
Central America.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough reaches the Atlantic through the coast of
Mauritania near 19N16W and continues southwestward to 11N41W and 
to 12N57W. The convection is described in the Tropical Waves 
section.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

A couple of surface troughs in the NW and SE Gulf waters are
resulting in isolated to scattered showers across a good portion 
of the basin. The basin is under the influence of a weak pressure 
gradient, resulting in moderate or weaker winds and 2-4 ft seas.

For the forecast, a broad area of low pressure near the upper 
Texas coast will linger near the coast through much of this week, 
and some slow development is possible if it meanders offshore. 
Strong gusty winds and locally higher seas should be expected near
convection. Elsewhere, gentle to locally moderate winds and 
slight seas are expected through the middle of the upcoming week 
as Atlantic high pressure extends inland across the SE U.S.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Refer to the section above for details on the tropical wave moving 
across the basin.

Scattered showers are evident in the NW Caribbean due to a surface
trough just north of the area and abundant tropical moisture. The
pressure gradient between a ridge located south of Nova Scotia and
the Colombian low supports moderate to fresh easterly trade winds
and seas of 4-6 ft in the central Caribbean, including the 
Windward Passage. Moderate or weaker winds and slight to moderate
seas are found in the remainder of the Caribbean.

For the forecast, moderate to locally fresh E winds will pulse 
off the south coast of Hispaniola each night through the middle of
this week. A tropical wave located several hundred miles east of 
the Lesser Antilles continues to show some signs of organization. 
Slow development is possible as the disturbance moves westward and
reaches the Lesser Antilles on Mon. Later this week, the wave is 
expected to move across the central and western Caribbean Sea, 
where conditions will probably become more conducive for some 
development, and a tropical depression could form during that 
time.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Refer to the section above for details on the tropical waves and
associated convection occurring across the basin.

A surface trough extends from central Florida to the SE Gulf 
waters and is interacting with an upper level disturbance, 
resulting in scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms south of
29N and west of 75W. The remainder of the tropical Atlantic is 
dominated by a broad subtropical ridge. Moderate to locally fresh 
E trade winds are found south of 27N and west of 55W. Seas in 
these waters are 4-6 ft. Farther east, moderate to locally fresh 
NE winds and seas of 4-7 ft are occurring north of 20N and east of
25W. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds and slight to moderate 
seas are prevalent.

For the forecast, a low to mid-level trough will continue to 
support scattered moderate to locally strong convection off the 
coast of Florida, Cuba and the Bahamas over the next several days.
Fresh to locally strong E to NE winds will pulse each night off 
the coast of Hispaniola through the middle of the upcoming week. A
tropical wave located several hundred miles east of the Lesser 
Antilles continues to show some signs of organization. Slow 
development is possible as the disturbance moves westward and 
reaches the Lesser Antilles on Mon. Later this week, the wave is 
expected to move across the central and western Caribbean Sea, 
where conditions will probably become more conducive for some 
development, and a tropical depression could form during that 

$$
ADAMS