000 AXNT20 KNHC 310415 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0605 UTC Sat Aug 31 2024 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0355 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave in the eastern Atlantic is along 27W, south of 20N, moving westward at 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is observed from 10N to 15N and between 24W and 28W. A tropical wave in the central Atlantic is along 47W, south of 21N, moving westward at 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 08N to 14N and between 44W and 50W. A tropical wave in the western Caribbean is along 82W, south of 20N, moving westward at 10-15 kt. Scattered showers are present along the northern end of the wave axis. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of Mauritania near 19N16W and continues southwestward to 11N35W and to 10N60W. Scattered moderate convection is occurring from 04N to 12N and between 35W and 44W. Similar convection is seen from 08N to 13N and between 50W and 60W. ...GULF OF MEXICO... A surface trough along the NW Gulf coast and plenty of tropical moisture result in scattered showers over the north-central Gulf waters. Meanwhile, strong showers and isolated thunderstorms that developed earlier today over western Yucatan are moving into the eastern Bay of Campeche waters. The basin is under the influence of a weak pressure gradient, resulting in moderate or weaker winds and 2-4 ft seas. For the forecast, a persistent trough of low pressure over the northwestern Gulf will meander near the coast through much of the next week, supporting moderate to locally strong convection. Some slow development of this system is possible if it remains offshore. Gusty and erratic winds and elevated seas are possible near convection. Elsewhere, gentle to locally moderate winds and slight seas are expected into the middle of next week. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... Refer to the section above for details on the tropical wave and associated convection occurring across the basin. A few showers are evident in the SW Caribbean, especially near the coast of southern Nicaragua, and also near the southern coast of Cuba and western Hispaniola. Generally dry conditions prevail elsewhere. A ridge located south of Bermuda supports fresh to occasionally strong easterly trade winds and seas of 4-6 ft in the central Caribbean. This was confirmed by a recent scatterometer satellite pass. Moderate or weaker winds and slight to moderate seas are found in the remainder of the Caribbean. For the forecast, moderate to locally fresh E to NE winds will continue across central portions of the basin through Sat as the pressure gradient between a central Atlantic ridge and the Colombian low persists. The highest winds are expected off the coast of Hispaniola each night. A tropical wave currently over the central tropical Atlantic could see gradual development over the next few days, and a tropical depression could form some time next week while it moves westward, reaching the Lesser Antilles on Monday and continuing across the Caribbean Sea through the middle to latter part of the week. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... Refer to the section above for details on the tropical waves and associated convection occurring across the basin. A surface trough along extending from 30N78W to the northern coast of Cuba, divergence aloft and abundant moisture sustain scattered showers west of 75W, affecting parts of the Bahamas, Cuba and southern Florida. The remainder of the tropical Atlantic is dominated by a broad subtropical ridge. A recent scatterometer satellite pass captured fresh to locally strong easterly trade winds off NE Hispaniola, including at the entrance of the Windward Passage. Seas in these waters are 4-6 ft. Moderate to fresh easterly breezes and moderate seas are found south of 28N and west of 55W. Farther east, moderate to locally fresh northerly winds and seas of 4-7 ft north of 20N and east of 25W. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds and slight to moderate seas are prevalent. For the forecast, ridging over the central Atlantic is maintaining a modest pressure gradient across much of the basin. Winds will veer to the SE on Sat west of 75W as the ridge axis shifts eastward. Surface troughing and weak mid-level flow will continue to support scattered moderate to locally strong convection near the Bahamas over the next few days. Fresh to locally strong E to NE winds will pulse each night off the coast of Hispaniola through the middle of next week. A tropical wave currently over the central tropical Atlantic could develop into a tropical depression some time next week while it moves westward, reaching the Lesser Antilles on Monday and continuing across the Caribbean Sea through the middle to latter part of the week. Elsewhere, another tropical wave between the west coast of Africa and the Cabo Verde Islands could see slow development through late next week while it moves slowly to the west- northwest over the eastern and central tropical Atlantic. $$ Delgado