000
AXNT20 KNHC 250833
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1205 UTC Sun Aug 25 2024

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
0830 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

The axis of an Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is near 44W, from 20N
southward, moving westward at around 10 knots. Nearby convection
is discussed in the monsoon trough/ITCZ section below. 

The axis of a Caribbean Sea tropical wave is near 89W, from 22N 
southward, moving westward 10 knots. Scattered moderate and 
isolated strong convection is noted over the NW Caribbean. 

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends off the coast of Africa near 14.5N17W
to 09N45W. The ITCZ continues from 09N45W to 11N59W. Scattered
moderate and isolated strong convection is noted from 03N to 07N
between 13W and 40W, and from 07N to 11N between 40W and 52W. 

...GULF OF MEXICO...

A weak pressure gradient prevails over the Gulf of Mexico, 
supporting gentle to locally moderate winds. Seas are in the 1-3 
ft range. 

For the forecast, an upper-level disturbance will support 
scattered moderate to locally strong convection across the 
northern and eastern Gulf over the next couple of days. Gusty 
winds and locally rough seas will be possible near convection. 
Otherwise, a weak pressure gradient will maintain gentle to 
locally moderate winds and slight seas through Thu. 

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Moderate to locally fresh winds, and seas of 4-6 ft, prevail over
the central Caribbean. Gentle to moderate winds, and seas of 2-4
ft, are noted elsewhere. 

For the forecast, moderate to locally fresh NE to E winds will 
pulse off the coast of Hispaniola through Thu. Elsewhere, gentle 
to moderate winds and moderate seas will prevail.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Three troughs are over the discussion waters. The first trough is
off the coast of Florida, which has occasionally been producing
moderate to strong convection. The second trough extends from
29N64W to 20N64W, with scattered moderate convection in the
vicinity of the trough. A third trough extends from 30N48W to
20N51W. Scattered moderate convection is in the vicinity of the
trough. A relatively weak pressure gradient is across the
discussion waters. The weak pressure gradient is supporting mainly
light to gentle winds, and seas of 4-6 ft, over the tropical and
subtropical waters N of 20N and W of 40W. Moderate to fresh winds,
and seas of 6-8 ft, are over the waters N of 20N and E of 40W. S
of 20N, light to gentle winds, and seas of 4-6 ft, are noted. 

For the forecast W of 55W, an upper-level disturbance will 
support scattered moderate to locally strong convection over the 
Bahamas over the next couple of days. Gusty winds and locally 
rough seas will be possible near convection. Otherwise, moderate 
to locally fresh E to NE winds and moderate seas will continue 
through Thu. 

$$
AL