000 AXNT20 KNHC 200552 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0605 UTC Tue Aug 20 2024 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0500 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A newly analyzed tropical wave is off the Africa coast near 18W from 25N southward, and moving west around 5 kt. Widely scattered moderate convection is seen from 13N to 15N between the Senegal- Gambia coast and 20W. A central Atlantic tropical wave is near 48W from 21N southward, and moving west around 15 kt. Widely scattered moderate convection is found east of the wave from 13N to 18N between 38W and 44W. An eastern Caribbean tropical wave is near 68W from near the Mona Passage southward to northwestern Venezuela. It is moving west at 15 kt. As this wave is under a very dry environment, on convection is observed nearby. A western Caribbean tropical wave is near 86W from just south of the Yucatan Channel southward across Honduras and Costa Rica into the East Pacific. It is moving west at 15 to 20 kt. Scattered showers and strong thunderstorms are occurring at the offshore waters of Belize, Honduras and Nicaragua, including the Gulf of Honduras. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... A monsoon trough enters the Atlantic along the Mauritania coast just south of the Western Sahara-Mauritania border, then runs southwestward across 15N33W to near 09N51W. Scattered moderate convection is noted near and south of the trough from 07N to 12N between 30W and 41W. The eastern end of the East Pacific monsoon trough is generating isolated strong thunderstorms across the Caribbean waters near Panama and northwestern Colombia. ...GULF OF MEXICO... A weak stationary front curves westward from the Florida Panhandle to southern Louisiana. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are occurring south of the front at the northeastern Gulf. A modest but persistent surface trough is triggering similar conditions at the west-central Gulf. Weak ridging is providing light to gentle winds and seas of 1 to 2 ft at the northwestern, central and southeastern Gulf. Gentle to locally moderate NW to NE winds and 2 to 4 ft seas dominate the remainder of the Gulf, including the Bay of Campeche. For the forecast, the aforementioned stationary front will move southeastward as a cold front over night and should be east of the region by late Tue. A weak pressure pattern across the Gulf will support gentle to locally moderate breezes and slight seas through this week. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... A surface ridge to the north near 25N continues to support a fair trade-wind regime across most of the Caribbean Sea. Refer to the Tropical Waves and Monsoon Trough/ITCZ sections for convection in the basin. Tight gradient between the ridge and a 1009 mb low over northwestern Colombia is sustaining fresh to strong ENE to E winds and seas of 6 to 8 ft at the south-central basin. Moderate to fresh E winds with 4 to 6 ft seas are noted at the north-central basin. Light to gentle winds and seas at 1 to 3 ft exist at the lee of Cuba, and near Costa Rica and Panama. Gentle to moderate ENE to E winds and 3 to 5 ft seas prevail elsewhere in the Caribbean Sea, including the Gulf of Honduras. For the forecast, fresh to strong trades and moderate to rough seas at the south-central basin will persist through Wed. Elsewhere, moderate to locally fresh winds are expected over much of the basin this week, except light to gentle speeds over the northwestern basin. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... Please read the Ocean Prediction Center High Seas Forecast at website: https://www.ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.php and advisories issued by the National Hurricane Center at website: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/cyclones/ for the latest information on Hurricane Ernesto in the north Atlantic. A surface trough extends eastward from central Florida across the northwest Bahamas to near 28N72W. Widely scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are seen near and up to 100 nm south of this feature. Enhanced by a pronounced mid-latitude trough over the eastern United States, convergent southerly winds are producing scattered heavy showers and strong thunderstorms offshore of northeastern Florida. Refer to the Tropical Waves and Monsoon Trough/ITCZ sections for additional weather in the Atlantic Basin. A broad surface ridge extends southwestward from a 1029 mb Azores High across 31N52W and the central Bahamas to the Great Bahama Bank. This feature is maintaining gentle to moderate with locally fresh ENE to SE to SSW winds with 4 to 6 ft seas north of 20N between 30W and the Florida-Georgia coast. Near the Canary Islands, moderate to fresh with locally strong NNE to NE winds and seas at 7 to 10 ft dominate north of 22N between the northwest Africa coast and 30W. Farther south near the Cabo Verde Islands, light to gentle W to NW to N winds and seas of 4 to 6 ft in mixed moderate swells are present from 08N to 22N between the central Africa coast and 30W. For the tropical Atlantic from 08N to 20N between 30W and the Lesser Antilles, gentle to moderate NE to E winds and 5 to 7 ft seas exist. Gentle with locally moderate S to SW winds and seas of 5 to 7 ft in mixed moderate to large swells prevail for the remainder of the Atlantic Basin. For the forecast west of 55W, expect moderate to locally fresh SW winds off northeast Florida through early Tue ahead of a weak cold front that will move off the coast of Florida later in the day. The front will drift east while weakening through mid week. Moderate to locally fresh trades and slight to moderate seas will occur across much of the basin this week. $$ Chan