000 AXNT20 KNHC 101810 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1805 UTC Sat Aug 10 2024 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1700 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A central Atlantic tropical wave is near 39W from 20N southward through a 1010 mb low near 12N39W, and moving westward at 5 to 10 kt. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is noted from 10N to 14N between 35W to 42W. Gradual development of this system is possible during the next couple of days while it moves westward to west-northwestward across the central tropical Atlantic. Afterward, the environment will become more conducive for development and a tropical depression is likely to form while approaching the Lesser Antilles. There is a high chance of development from the next 2 to 7 days. An eastern Caribbean tropical wave is near 70W from eastern Hispaniola southward into northwestern Venezuela, and moving westward near 10 kt. Widely scattered moderate convection is noted from 15N to 17N between 56W and 71W. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... A monsoon trough enters the Atlantic along the west coast of Mauritania near Nouakchott, then extends southwestward across 15N30W to 11N48W. Numerous to isolated strong convection is seen south of the trough from 09N to 13N between the Senegal-Sierra coast and 20W. The eastern end of the East Pacific monsoon trough is triggering scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms across the Caribbean waters near Panama and northwestern Mexico. ...GULF OF MEXICO... A dissipating stationary front is keeping isolated thunderstorms across the northern Gulf. A surface trough in the Bay of Campeche is causing scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms there. A surface ridge reaches eastward from a 1017 mb high at the west- central Gulf to southwestern Florida. Gentle to locally moderate southerly winds and 2 to 4 ft seas are present for the whole Gulf. For the forecast, the stationary front will dissipate by this evening. Otherwise, a weak surface ridge will maintain gentle to moderate winds and slight seas through early next week. A tropical wave moving across southern Mexico will continue to support scattered showers and tstms across the Bay of Campeche and southwestern Gulf through Sun. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... A surface ridge over and east of the northeast Bahamas maintains trade winds for much of the basin. Convergent trades are triggering scattered moderate convection at the southeastern basin, and near eastern Cuba and Jamaica. Refer to the Monsoon Trough/ITCZ and Tropical Waves sections for additional weather in the Caribbean Sea. Moderate to fresh ENE to E trades with 4 to 6 ft seas are present at the central basin. Gentle to moderate ENE to ESE winds and seas of 3 to 5 ft prevail for the rest of the basin. For the forecast, moderate to locally fresh trades will prevail across the basin through Mon, with the exception of fresh to strong winds south of Hispaniola and in the Windward Passage tonight. A tropical wave will bring showers and thunderstorms across the central and portions of the eastern basin today and Sun, and across the western basin by Mon. A robust tropical wave currently in the central Atlantic has the potential to develop into a tropical depression by the early to middle part of next week while the system approaches and then moves near or over the Lesser Antilles. The system is forecast to continue moving generally west-northwestward and could approach portions of the Greater Antilles by the middle to latter part of next week. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... Two upper-level troughs are producing scattered moderate convection to the east of Florida, and just north of the northern Leeward Islands. For additional convection in the Atlantic Basin, read the Monsoon Trough/ITCZ and Tropical Waves sections at the beginning. The Bermuda-Azores high dominates most of the Atlantic waters, supporting gentle to moderate NE to SSE winds and seas of 4 to 7 ft north of 20N between 30W and the Florida-Georgia coast. For the tropical Atlantic from 12N to 20N between 30W and the Lesser Antilles, gentle to moderate NE to ESE winds along with 4 to 6 ft seas are noted, except moderate to fresh E to SE to S winds with 5 to 7 ft seas from 09N to 18N between 33W and 45W. For the remainder of the Atlantic Basin from Equator to 12N and west of 30W, gentle to moderate southerly and westerly winds with 4 to 6 ft seas in mixed moderate swells prevail. For the forecast west of 55W, Atlantic high pressure centered northeast of Bermuda extends a ridge southwestward across the Bahamas and Florida, and will remain in place through Mon, before weakening. This pattern will promote gentle to moderate winds and slight to moderate seas, except for fresh to strong winds during the evening and nighttime hours along the north coast of Hispaniola. A robust tropical wave currently in the central Atlantic has the potential to develop into a tropical depression by the early to middle part of next week while the system approaches and then moves near or over the Lesser Antilles. The system is forecast to continue moving generally west-northwestward and could approach portions of the Greater Antilles by the middle to latter part of next week. Regardless of development, fresh winds and rough seas are forecast for the southeastern offshore waters from Mon evening, increasing to gale force winds just northeast of the Dominican Republic by Wed evening. $$ Chan