838 AXNT20 KNHC 081021 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1205 UTC Thu Aug 8 2024 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1000 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave is along 32W/33W, from 18N southward, moving westward at 10 to 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted where the wave meets the monsoon trough. Another tropical wave is approaching the Lesser Antilles. Its axis is along 51W, from 18N southward, moving westward at 10 to 15 kt. Convection is limited near the wave axis. This wave is expected to enter the eastern Caribbean Fri evening or Fri night. A third tropical wave is over the western Caribbean with axis along 83W, from 20N southward, moving westward at around 15 kt. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is associated with the wave. This convective activity is affecting NE Honduras and eastern Nicaragua as well as the SW Caribbean, particularly S of 16N and W of 78W. A recent scatterometer pass indicates moderate to fresh easterly winds near the northern end of the wave axis. A cyclonic circulation is also noted along the wave axis near 12N. This wave is expected to emerge over the far eastern portion of the east Pacific Ocean later today. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough passes through the coastal border of Senegal near 14N17W and continues westward to 10N30W to 11N48W. The ITCZ extends from 11N52W to near 11N60W. Scattered moderate convection is noted mainly S of the monsoon trough to about 04N between 24W and 47W. GULF OF MEXICO... The cyclonic circulation of Debby extends as far south as central Florida and the NE Gulf of Mexico. A weak ridge dominates the remainder of the Gulf region with a weak high pressure center of 1012 mb near 24N94W. Under this weather pattern, moderate W to NW winds and seas of 3 to 5 ft are noted over the NE Gulf while mainly light to gentle winds and seas of 1 to 3 ft are seen elsewhere, except W of 95W where mainly gentle to moderate southerly winds prevail. A few showers are noted over the eastern Gulf. For the forecast, as Tropical Storm Debby continues to move farther north, a weak surface ridge will build over the Gulf waters supporting gentle to moderate winds and slight seas during the next several days. A weak cold front may reach the N Gulf coast on Fri, then stall and dissipate on Sat. CARIBBEAN SEA... A tropical wave is over the western Caribbean. Please, see the Tropical Waves section for more details. Aside from the moderate to fresh winds driven by the tropical wave and associated convection, gentle to moderate trade winds prevail across much of the Caribbean, with the exception of the lee of Cuba where light and variable winds are observed per recent scatterometer data. Seas are generally 3 to 6 ft, locally up to 8 ft in the central Caribbean per altimeter data. Seas of 1 to 3 ft are analyzed in the NW Caribbean. For the forecast, the tropical wave in the W Caribbean is expected to emerge over the far eastern portion of the east Pacific Ocean later today. Elsewhere, mainly moderate trades will prevail, with the exception of fresh to strong winds in the Gulf of Venezuela, and near the coast of Colombia tonight, and again Fri night. Looking ahead, an area of low pressure could form in the central or western tropical Atlantic Ocean early next week. Some development of this system is possible while it approaches the Lesser Antilles during the early to middle part of next week and moves generally west-northwestward toward the Greater Antilles thereafter. ATLANTIC OCEAN... Tropical Storm Debby is N of the forecast region near 33.2N 79.7W at 5 AM EDT, and is moving northwest at 4 kt. Maximum sustained winds are 45 kt with gusts to 55 kt, and the minimum central pressure is 994 mb. Debby is expected to accelerate toward the north-northwest and north across eastern South Carolina and central North Carolina through tonight, then is forecast to move faster toward the northeast across the U.S. Mid-Atlantic and Northeast on Friday and Atlantic Canada on Saturday. Weakening is expected during the next day or so, and Debby is likely to become a tropical depression by this afternoon or evening. Debby should then merge with a front and become extratropical on Friday. Otherwise, the Bermuda-Azores high dominates most of the Atlantic forecast waters, supporting, in general, moderate to locally fresh NE to E winds N of 20N. Gentle to moderate trades dominate the tropical Atlantic while fresh to strong NE winds are noted between the Canary Islands and downwind to about 22N. Seas are generally 4 to 7 ft. For the forecast, fresh to strong southerly winds and moderate to rough seas associated with the outer circulation of Debby are still affecting the waters E of NE Florida to about 72W. These winds are forecast to diminish to 20 kt or less early of Fri. As Debby moves farther N, a ridge will build again across the Bahamas and the waters E of Florida promoting gentle to moderate winds and slight to moderate seas. $$ GR