000 AXNT20 KNHC 292256 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0005 UTC Tue Jul 30 2024 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2245 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... An eastern Atlantic tropical wave has its axis along 39W, south of 20N, moving westward at 15 kt. No significant convection is noted with this wave at this time. A central Atlantic tropical wave has its axis along 50W, south of 17N, moving westward at 10 kt. A few showers are present near the trough axis south of 12N. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near 13N17W and continues southwestward to 12N56W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 05N to 12N and east of 27W. GULF OF MEXICO... A surface trough is analyzed across the NE gulf waters from 27N83W to 29N90W. Scattered moderate convection prevails in the vicinity of the trough. Elsewhere, high pressure over the eastern United States extends southward into the Gulf the Mexico. The pressure gradient between this ridge and lower pressures in Mexico sustain moderate to locally fresh E-SE winds in the western Gulf. Seas in these waters are 3-5 ft. Light to gentle winds and slight seas prevail in the remainder of the basin. A few showers are noted in the eastern Bay of Campeche. For the forecast, the ridge will remain in place from the eastern U.S. across the eastern Gulf waters through Fri allowing for gentle to moderate winds and slight to moderate seas. Fresh winds are expected near and to the NW of the Yucatan Peninsula at night during the next few days due to local effects. CARIBBEAN SEA... A broad 1029 mb high pressure system near 37N52W extends southwestward into the Caribbean Sea, forcing fresh to strong easterly trade winds in the south-central, SW Caribbean. Seas in these waters are 8-10 ft. The strongest winds and highest seas are occurring off NW Colombia. Moderate to fresh easterly breezes and moderate seas are found in the eastern and north-central Caribbean. Moderate or weaker winds and slight to moderate seas prevail elsewhere. For the forecast, the Atlantic ridge will continue supporting fresh to strong trade winds and rough seas across the central Caribbean into Wed. A vigorous tropical wave will enter the eastern Caribbean Tue night and move into the central Caribbean. This will break up the dominance of the ridge, and allow winds and seas to diminish slightly as the wave moves across the central Caribbean through Fri. There is some potential for a tropical depression to form late this week in the vicinity of the Greater Antilles. An upper level low south of Jamaica will continue to produce scattered showers and thunderstorms over most of the central Caribbean waters through mid-week. ATLANTIC OCEAN... Refer to the section above for details on the tropical waves moving across the basin. A surface trough is analyzed across the W Atlantic from 31N70W to 27N80W. scattered showers are noted along the trough. Moderate to fresh southerly winds and seas of 4-7 ft are found north of 28N and between 60W and 70W. The rest of the basin is under a broad subtropical ridge positioned over the central Atlantic. Scatterometer data depicts moderate to fresh NE winds from 15N to 28N and E of 62W. Moderate seas are noted in this area. Elsewhere, light or weaker winds and slight seas are present. For the forecast west of 55W, the Bermuda-Azores high pressure ridge will build across the region through Wed night supporting gentle to moderate winds north of 22N, and moderate to fresh winds south of 22N. Looking ahead, winds and seas associated with a vigorous tropical wave will increase northeast of the Leeward Islands Tue night into Wed, then move to the north of Puerto Rico and Hispaniola through Thu, across the Bahamas Fri and Fri night and north-northeast of the Bahamas Sat and Sat night. There is some potential for a tropical depression to form late this week in the vicinity of the Bahamas. $$ ERA