000 AXNT20 KNHC 052311 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0005 UTC Sat Jul 6 2024 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2300 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Tropical Storm Beryl is centered near 21.2N 89.2W at 05/2100 UTC or 30 nm ESE of Progreso Mexico, moving WNW at 13 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 989 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 55 kt with gusts to 65 kt. Peak seas are 15 ft, highest seas being over the northern Yucatan Peninsula adjacent waters. Numerous moderate to isolated strong convection is in the SE Gulf S of 26N between 86W and 91W. Re-intensification is expected once the center moves back over the Gulf of Mexico, and Beryl is forecast to regain hurricane status on Sunday. Large swells generated by Beryl are currently impacting portions of the coast of Cuba, the Cayman Islands, and the Yucatan Peninsula. The swells are expected to reach eastern Mexico and much of the Gulf Coast of the U.S. by late today. These swells are expected to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office for detailed information. Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National Hurricane Center at website - https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml and the latest Beryl NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at www.hurricanes.gov for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave has been introduced to this analysis, based on model diagnostics, current satellite imagery, and observations. The wave has its with axis along 20W from 08N-20N. There is no significant convection at this time with this wave. A tropical wave is in the central Atlantic extending from 07N to 21N with axis near 43W, moving westward at 10 to 15 kt. Scattered showers are noted over the southern half of the wave environment. A tropical wave is in the central Caribbean extending S of 20N with axis near 77W, moving westward at around 15-20 kt. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted S of 19N between 70W and 82W. Fresh E to SE winds and seas to 7 ft are in the vicinity of the wave. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near 14N17W and continues southwestward to 08N26W. The ITCZ extends from 08N26W to 07N58W. Aside from the convection associated with the tropical wave, no convection is present at this time. GULF OF MEXICO... Please read the Special Features section on the latest details on T.S. Beryl, located over the Yucatan peninsula. Except for the Yucatan Channel the SE Gulf of Mexico W of 85W, and the eastern Bay of Campeche, light to gentle variable winds and slight to moderate are across the remainder basin being supported by a weak ridge covering the northern half of the region. The ridge is anchored by 1015 mb center of high pressure, analyzed near 28N93W. For the forecast, Tropical Storm Beryl will move to 22.0N 91.0W Sat morning, 23.2N 93.0W Sat afternoon, 24.3N 94.6W Sun morning, strengthen to a hurricane near 25.3N 95.9W Sun afternoon, 26.5N 96.8W Mon morning, and 27.8N 97.3W Mon afternoon. Beryl will weaken to a tropical depression while moving inland to near 30.5N 97.0W Tue afternoon. There remains some uncertainty in the track forecast of Beryl over the western Gulf of Mexico this weekend. Interests in the western Gulf of Mexico should monitor the progress of Beryl. CARIBBEAN SEA... Please read the Special Features section on the latest details on T.S. Beryl, located over the northern Yucatan peninsula. Refer to the Tropical Waves section for details on the tropical wave in the central Caribbean. Aside from Beryl, a tropical wave is supporting moderate to fresh E to SE winds and moderate to rough seas E of its axis, over the central and eastern Caribbean. Moderate to fresh SE winds are also ahead of the wave, across Jamaica adjacent waters, including portions of the Windward Passage. Aside from the winds and seas, this wave is generating scattered heavy showers and tstms over the central and portions of the SW Caribbean. Otherwise, fresh to strong SE winds and rough seas associated with Beryl continue to affect the far NW Caribbean, including the Yucatan Channel. For the forecast, a surge of fresh to strong winds, rough seas, and numerous squalls will move across the central Caribbean tonight associated with a strong tropical wave. Fresh to strong E to SE winds and rough seas will then prevail across much of the central and NW Caribbean this weekend. ATLANTIC OCEAN... Please read the Tropical Waves section for the latest details on a tropical wave in the eastern Atlantic Ocean. A surface trough extends from 31N61W to 27N67W to 27N74W. This trough is also combined with a mid-to-upper level low in the area. Scattered moderate to strong convection prevails with these features S of 30N between 55W-70W. Moderate to fresh S to SE winds prevail between 50W and 63W. The remainder of the subtropical a portions of the tropical Atlantic are under the influence of the Azores High associated ridge, which is supporting gentle to moderate E winds across the central basin. Over the E subtropical Atlantic, fresh NE winds and rough seas are ongoing due to a tighter pressure gradient. Otherwise, a large outbreak of the Saharan Air Layer continue to race behind the tropical wave over the central Atlantic and engulfs it west of its axis as well. For the forecast west of 55W, the aforementioned trough will linger over this area through the weekend before dissipating. High pressure will prevail otherwise with mainly gentle to moderate winds, locally fresh to strong near Hispaniola at times. $$ ERA