000 AXNT20 KNHC 032309 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0005 UTC Thu Jul 4 2024 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2300 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Hurricane Beryl is centered near 17.5N 77.6W at 03/2100 UTC or 60 nm WSW of Kingston Jamaica, moving WNW at 17 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 959 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 120 kt with gusts to 145 kt. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 185 miles (295 km). Kingston, Jamaica, recently reported sustained winds of 48 mph (78 km/h) and a wind gust of 81 mph (130 km/h). Large swells generated by Beryl are currently impacting the southern coasts of Puerto Rico, Hispaniola, and Jamaica. These swells are expected to reach the coasts of Costa Rica, Nicaragua, the Cayman Islands, and the south coast of Cuba this evening, and they are expected to reach the coasts of Honduras, Belize, and the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico by midday Thursday. These swells are expected to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. On the forecast track, the center of Beryl will pass near or over the southern coast of Jamaica during the next few hours. After that, the center is expected to pass near or over the Cayman Islands tonight or early Thursday and move over the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico Thursday night or early Friday. Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National Hurricane Center at website - https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml and the latest Beryl NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at www.hurricanes.gov for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave extends from 06N to 20N with axis near 31W, moving westward at 15 to 20 kt. Scattered showers within this wave are mainly linked to the monsoon trough currently extending along 09N. A tropical wave (Invest 96L) is moving across the Lesser Antilles with axis near 62W. The wave is moving westward rapidly at 15-20 kt. Winds of 20 to 25 kt are noted with this wave. Scattered moderate convection prevails from 11N-17N between 60W-68W. Development, if any, of this system should be slow to occur while it moves across the Caribbean Sea during the next few days. Regardless of development, gusty winds and locally heavy rainfall are possible across portions of the Lesser Antilles through this evening. Please refer to the latest NHC Tropical Weather Outlook at www.hurricanes.gov for more details. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough enters the eastern Atlantic near 17N16W and continues SW to 06N40W. The ITCZ extends from 06N40W to 06N53W. Scattered moderate convection is within 120 nm S of the monsoon/ITCZ between 20W and 43W. ...GULF OF MEXICO... Please read the Special Features section on the latest details on Hurricane Beryl, forecast to enter the Gulf Thu night and Fri. High pressure along the eastern United States extends a ridge across the eastern and central Gulf, and is supporting light to gentle E to SE winds along with slight seas basin-wide. Highest seas are noted across the Straits of Florida and Yucatan Channel. For the forecast, the ridge across the northern Gulf will linger through Thu in advance of Hurricane Beryl, now moving along the southern coast of Jamaica. Beryl is expected to maintain a W-NW motion across the Caribbean and weaken slowly, moving inland over the Yucatan Peninsula Fri morning near 19.5N 88.2W, and weakening to a tropical storm. Beryl is expected to emerge off the western Yucatan Peninsula near 20.4N 90.7W Fri evening and turn more NW, reaching near 21.9N 93.9W Sat afternoon, then strengthen to a hurricane near 24N 96.9W Sun afternoon, and move inland across the Tamaulipas, Mexico coast late Sun evening. There remains some uncertainty in the track forecast of Beryl over the western Gulf of Mexico this weekend. Interests in the western Gulf of Mexico should monitor the progress of Beryl. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... Please read the Special Features section on the latest details on Hurricane Beryl. Refer to the Tropical Waves and Monsoon Trough/ITCZ sections for additional convection in the Caribbean Sea. Aside from Hurricane Beryl, fast moving tropical wave (Invest 96L) currently over the Lesser Antilles is racing across the E Caribbean and generating scattered moderate convection. Aside from the convection associated with the wave, strong winds and moderate seas are also accompanying this wave that currently has low chances of development. See the Tropical Waves Section for further details. With the Azores High pressure ridge in place just N of the basin, fresh to strong trade winds prevail in the central Caribbean while NE winds of the same magnitude are ongoing in the NW basin. Fresh to strong winds over the central region. Rough seas in the 8-12 ft range associated with Major Hurricane Beryl continue to affect the central Caribbean and portions of the SW basin as well. For the forecast, Beryl is expected to maintain a W-NW motion and weaken slowly, reaching near 18.1N 80.3W tonight, near 18.7N 83.7W Thu afternoon, near 19.2N 86.7W Thu night, and then move inland over the Yucatan Peninsula Fri morning near 19.5N 88.2W, where it will weaken to a tropical storm. Beryl will then turn more NW and move across the western Gulf of Mexico Fri evening through Sun night. A surge of fresh to strong winds, rough seas, and numerous squalls is expected to move across the eastern and central Caribbean through Fri, associated with Invest 96L. Fresh to strong E to SE winds will then prevail across much of the central and NW Caribbean this weekend. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... Please read the Tropical Waves section for the latest details on the waves moving across the basin. Scattered showers and isolated tstms are ongoing over the offshore waters N of 27N between 56W and 63W, in association with a surface trough, analyzed from 31N61W to 29N68W. Moderate to fresh winds are associated with the trough. To the N, a frontal boundary extends along 31N and W of 62W. Scattered showers are also ongoing in the Great Bahama Bank and the approaches of the Windward Passage as Hurricane Beryl is just S of the area over the NW Caribbean. Otherwise, the entire subtropical Atlantic waters are under the influence of the Azores High associated ridge, which is maintaining gentle to moderate NE to E winds across most of the region, except for fresh winds across the Greater Antilles adjacent waters. Seas across the region are moderate in the 4 to 7 ft range. For the forecast west of 55W, the central Atlantic high pressure extends a weak ridge southwestward to N Florida will continue to support gentle to moderate winds and slight to moderate seas north of 25N, with moderate to fresh trades and mainly moderate seas south of 25N. Winds and seas will be locally strong north of Puerto Rico, Hispaniola and into the Windward Passage through early Fri as Hurricane Beryl exits the Caribbean. Meanwhile, a decaying cold front from 30N to 31N will sink south to 29N through early Thu, then stall and dissipate through Fri night. High pressure will build westward and into the Bahamas over the weekend. $$ ERA