000 AXNT20 KNHC 180431 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0605 UTC Tue Jun 18 2024 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0430 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Potential Tropical Cyclone One (PTC One). Potential Tropical Cyclone One is near 20.8N 93.0W at 11 PM EDT, and is moving north-at 6 kt. Maximum sustained winds are 35 kt with gusts to 45 kt, and the minimum central pressure is 999 mb. The disturbance is quite large with tropical-storm-force winds extending outward up to 252 nm to the northeast of the center. Seas are peaking near 12 ft near the center. Numerous moderate to scattered strong convection is observed west of 77W in the Caribbean Sea and Gulf of Mexico. Heavy rains are also impacting portions of southern Mexico, Central America, western Cuba, Cayman Islands and Jamaica. A turn toward the west-northwest is expected Tuesday night or Wednesday, and the system is likely to approach the western Gulf coast late Wednesday. Rainfall associated with Potential Tropical Cyclone One will impact large regions of Central America, northeastern Mexico and South Texas. This rainfall will likely produce considerable flash and urban flooding along with new and renewed river flooding. Mudslides are also possible in areas of higher terrain across Central America into northeast Mexico. Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National Hurricane Center at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml and the latest Public Advisory at www.hurricanes.gov for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... An eastern Atlantic tropical wave is along 30.5W, south of 16N, moving westward at 10-15 knots. No deep convection is noted near the trough axis. An eastern Caribbean tropical wave is along 65W, south of 17N, moving westward at 10-15 knots. No deep convection is noted near the trough axis. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of Guinea-Bissau near 12N17W, then continues southwestward to 06N40W. The ITCZ extends from 06N40W to 07N54W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is present from 04N to 10N and east of 26W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is evident from 03N to 07N and between 37W and 50W. GULF OF MEXICO... Please read the SPECIAL FEATURES section for information on Potential Tropical Cyclone One and its impacts. Potential Tropical Cyclone One covers most of the Gulf of Mexico, producing numerous showers and isolated thunderstorms except in the NE Gulf and west of 94W. The strongest convection is seen in the Bay of Campeche. The pressure gradient between PTC One and the ridge in the NW Atlantic is supporting strong to minimal gale force E winds west of 86W, including the Yucatan Channel. East of 86W E winds are fresh. Seas are 8-12 ft west of 86W and 5-8 east of 86W. While the highest seas across the waters from 22N-26N between 86W and 91W. For the forecast, Potential Tropical Cyclone One is near 20.8N 93.0W at 11 PM EDT, and is moving north at 6 kt. Maximum sustained winds are 35 kt with gusts to 45 kt, and the minimum central pressure is 999 mb. One will move to 21.6N 92.8W Tue morning, 22.6N 93.6W Tue evening, 23.2N 95.3W Wed morning, 23.5N 96.9W Wed evening, then inland to 23.7N 98.1W Thu morning. CARIBBEAN SEA... Please read the SPECIAL FEATURES section for information on Potential Tropical Cyclone One and its impacts. The broad nature of Potential Tropical Cyclone One results in scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms over the central and NW Caribbean Sea. Similar convection is also impacting Hispaniola. Drier conditions are noted elsewhere in the basin. The pressure gradient between PTC One and a 1027 mb high pressure system in the NW Atlantic sustains fresh to locally near gale-force SE winds in the NW Caribbean, especially west of 83W. Stronger gusts are possible with the strongest convection. Seas in these waters are 7-10 ft. Fresh to locally strong easterly winds and seas of 3-6 ft are noted in the south-central Caribbean. Moderate or weaker winds and slight to moderate seas prevail elsewhere. For the forecast, a broad circulation around Potential Tropical Cyclone One will support fresh to near gale- force SE winds with scattered showers and thunderstorms across the NW Caribbean through at least Wed night. Elsewhere, gentle to moderate trades over the central and E Caribbean will reach moderate to fresh speeds by midweek and prevail through late Fri. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A surface trough extends from 31N53W toward the Dominican Republic. A weak 1013 mb low is analyzed along the trough axis near 24N64W. Scattered showers and thunderstorm are active along, and ahead this trough. Moderate to fresh NE winds and 5-7 ft seas are noted west of the trough, with moderate or weaker breezes and 3-5 ft seas elsewhere west of 55W. The remainder of the Atlantic discussion area is dominated by strong ridge north of the Azores. The pressure gradient between the ridge and lower pressures in NW Africa sustain fresh to strong northerly winds and seas of 6-9 ft from 18N to 24N and east of 21W. Elsewhere in the basin, gentle to moderate winds and seas in the 4-6 ft range prevail. For the forecast west of 55W, Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms persist in the vicinity of a surface trough extending from 31N55W to low pres near 24N64W to 21N69W. Environmental conditions could be conducive for some development of the low during the next few days while it moves westward or west- northwestward. The system is forecast to approach the coast of the southeast United States by the end of the week. Regardless of development, fresh to strong winds and rough seas will prevail across the waters N of 25N through Thu. $$ KRV