000 AXNT20 KNHC 080559 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0605 UTC Sat Jun 8 2024 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0435 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Heavy Rainfall in the NW Caribbean and Hispaniola: Divergent flow aloft and abundant tropical moisture surging northward continues to generate a large area of heavy showers and thunderstorms affecting the islands in the western Greater Antilles. Dangerous lightning, rough seas, gusty winds and low visibility are likely ongoing in these regions. The soils remain saturated, therefore, it is possible that more heavy rain may lead to flash flooding and mudslides, especially in mountainous terrain. Mariners should exercise caution as these conditions are forecast to continue through the weekend. Please, refer to bulletins and forecasts from the local weather forecast offices for detailed information. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave is in the eastern Atlantic along 33W, south of 11N, and moving westward at 5-10 kt. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is observed from 01N to 10N and between 27W and 40W. A tropical wave is in the central Atlantic along 45W, south of 11M, and moving westward at about 10 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 04N to 11N and between 40W and 48W. Another tropical wave is in the central Atlantic along 54W, south of 12N and moving westward at about 10 kt. A few showers are seen near the trough axis. A tropical wave is in the central Caribbean along 76W, south of 14N and moving westward at about 10 kt. No significant deep convection is occurring in the Caribbean Sea associated with it. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough reaches the Atlantic through the coast of Guinea-Bissau near 11N16W and continues southwestward to 08N21W. The ITCZ extends from 08N21W to 06N32W, then from 06N34W to 06N44W and then from 06N45W to 06N53W. Scattered moderate convection is present from 04N to 09N and east of 18W. ...GULF OF MEXICO... A stationary cold front is along the northern coast of the Gulf of Mexico. However, no deep convection is noted near this boundary. The remainder of the basin is under the influence of a subtropical ridge over the central Atlantic that extends weakly westward and across Florida. Moderate to locally fresh easterly winds and seas of 2-4 ft are occurring in the Bay of Campeche, while moderate or weaker winds and slight seas prevail in the remainder of the Gulf. Hazy skies persist across the western Gulf and Bay of Campeche due to agricultural fires in southern Mexico and western Central America. Reduced visibilities are noted across coastal observation sites in the western and southern Gulf. For the forecast, a weak pressure gradient will support mainly gentle to moderate winds the next several days. Winds will pulse to fresh speeds near the Yucatan Peninsula during the late afternoon and evening hours. Hazy conditions due to agricultural fires over Central America and Mexico will continue for at least the next couple of days, reducing visibility to around 3 nm at times, mainly over the SW Gulf. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... Please read the Special Features section for information about the heavy rainfall event in the NW Caribbean and Hispaniola. A subtropical ridge over the central Atlantic extends into the Caribbean Sea, maintaining fairly tranquil weather conditions outside of the NW Caribbean. The pressure gradient between this ridge and lower pressures in northern South America result in fresh to strong easterly trade winds across the central Caribbean, with the highest winds occurring off northern Venezuela based on a recent scatterometer satellite pass. Seas in these waters are 5-8 ft. Moderate to fresh easterly breezes and seas of 3-6 ft are found in the eastern and NW Caribbean. Elsewhere, light to gentle winds and slight seas are prevalent. For the forecast, a mid to upper level trough extending from the E Gulf of Mexico to just E of the Bahamas will shift E-NE across the Atlantic through the weekend, which will support showers and thunderstorms across the NW Caribbean, the Windward Passage and Hispaniola through the weekend. A second upper level trough may extend this shower activity over the NW Caribbean through early next week. Moderate to fresh trades will prevail across the central and eastern Caribbean through the forecast period, except locally strong winds pulsing tonight and Sat night. Moderate to fresh SE winds are also forecast for the NW Caribbean most of the forecast period. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... Upper level diffluent flow and abundant tropical moisture are supporting scattered moderate convection over Bahamas and the SW North Atlantic, especially west of 62W. The remainder of the SW North Atlantic is dominated by a 1023 mb high pressure system over the central Atlantic, supporting gentle to moderate SE winds, except in the areas of strong thunderstorms. Farther east, a cold front extends from 31N38W to 27N41W, where it becomes a stationary front to 23N52W. A few showers are noted near the boundary axis. Moderate to locally fresh SW winds and seas of 4-6 ft from the front to 30W and north of 28N. The pressure gradient between the aforementioned ridge and lower pressures in the deep tropics result in moderate to fresh easterly winds and seas of 4-6 ft south of 20N and east of 30W. Fresh to locally strong northerly winds and seas of 4-6 ft are occurring from 15N to 21N and east of 25W. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas prevail. For the forecast W of 55W, deep layer trough will support showers and tstms across the Great Bahama Bank and the Bahamas offshore waters through Sun. High pressure centered SE of Bermuda is forecast to shift slowly E-NE through the weekend enabling a weak frontal boundary to move into the far NW waters Sat. The front will stall and lift north of the area Sun as high pressure builds back in across the area. $$ Delgado