000 AXNT20 KNHC 081729 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1805 UTC Mon Apr 8 2024 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1710 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... ...GALE-FORCE WINDS FOR METEO-FRANCE MARINE ZONES... The current METEO-FRANCE High Seas Forecast consists of gale-force winds in the marine zone AGADIR until 09/1200 UTC. Gale-force winds are forecast to develop in the marine zone TARFAYA, starting at 09/0000 UTC, and continue until 09/1200 UTC. Please, refer to the website, https://wwmiws.wmo.int/index.php/metareas/affiche/2, for details. A 1027 mb high pressure center is near 32N27W. An inland Africa surface is along 02W/04W from 20N northward. The surface pressure gradient is becoming tighter, supporting the gale-force wind event. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough passes through the coastal plains of Sierra Leone near 08N13W, to 03N17W. The ITCZ continues from 03N17, crossing the Equator along 23W, to 01S26W, 01S34W. Precipitation: widely scattered moderate to isolated strong is from 05N southward between 17W and 30W. Isolated moderate to locally strong is elsewhere from 10N southward from 60W eastward. ...GULF OF MEXICO... A surface ridge passes through SE Georgia, to S Louisiana, to NE coastal Mexico. A NW-to-SE oriented inland Mexico surface trough passes through 20N100W, to the Isthmus of Tehuantepec of southern Mexico. A NE-to-SW oriented inland Texas warm front is passing through the center of the state. Precipitation: broken to overcast multilayered clouds, and isolated moderate, are to the north of the line that is from the coast of Mexico at 25N, to 27N90W, beyond 28N80W. Some LIFR and IFR conditions are in the coastal plains of Texas. Moderate seas are nearly everywhere from 90W westward. An exception is for slight seas from 19.5N southward. Slight seas are from 90W eastward. Strong E to SE winds have been within 200 nm to the north of the Yucatan Peninsula. Fresh to moderate anticyclonic wind flow covers the rest of the Gulf of Mexico. A ridge extends from high pressure along the North Carolina coast across the Gulf coast states. The high center will shift into the Atlantic through early next week. Fresh to strong SE winds will develop over most of Gulf this afternoon and tonight. Winds will then become SE to S Tue through Wed, ahead of an approaching cold front, increasing to near gale-force across the central Bay of Campeche Tue night. This next cold front is expected to move into the western Gulf Wed morning, and reach from the Florida panhandle to the NW coast of the Yucatan Peninsula by Thu morning, then move SE of the area Fri. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... A stationary front is along 19N/20N between 68W just off the coast of the Dominican Republic and 79W just off the coast of SE Cuba. Precipitation: broken to overcast multilayered clouds, and isolated moderate to locally strong, are from 18N to 22N between 60W and 80W. Strong NE to E winds are within 210 nm of the of coasts of Venezuela and Colombia, including in the Gulf of Venezuela between 69W and 76W. Rough seas are in the coastal waters of Colombia between 74W and 77W. Fresh to strong easterly winds are within 135 nm of the coast of Honduras. Moderate NE winds are in the rest of the waters that are from 80W westward. Moderate and fresh easterly winds, and moderate seas, are elsewhere in the central Caribbean Sea. Moderate or slower easterly winds, and moderate to slight seas, are in the rest of the area. The 24-hour rainfall totals in inches, for the period that ended at 08/1200 UTC, are: 1.12 in San Juan in Puerto Rico. This information is from the Pan American Temperature and Precipitation Tables/MIATPTPAN. High pressure will build across the western Atlantic early this week, tightening the pressure gradient across the region. This will result in fresh to strong winds expanding in areal coverage across most of the central Caribbean tonight, and pulsing to near gale-force at night off of Colombia tonight through Thu night. The building high pressure will also support fresh to strong winds developing in the Windward Passage, south of Hispaniola, and in the Gulf of Honduras starting this evening. Winds will start to diminish the end of the week as the high pressure shifts eastward and further from the area. Looking ahead, a cold front is expected to reach the Yucatan Channel Thu night, then stall and weaken over the NW Caribbean Fri. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... A first cold front passes through 31N47W 28N50W 22N60W 20N68W. The front is stationary from 20N68W to SE Cuba. A second cold front is from 180 nm to 220 nm to the west/northwest/north of the first cold front. Rough seas are from 26N northward between the first cold front and 70W. Strong southerly winds are from 26N northward between 42W and the first cold front. Strong westerly winds are from 28N northward between the first cold front and the second cold front. Strong NW winds are from 28N northward between 60W and 70W. Moderate to fresh northerly winds are elsewhere from the second cold front northward between the second cold front and 70W. Moderate NE winds are between 70W and 80W. Precipitation: widely scattered moderate to isolated strong is from 30N northward between 43W and the first cold front. Isolated moderate to locally strong is elsewhere within 60 nm on either side of the first cold front and the stationary front. No significant deep convective precipitation is apparent with the second cold front. The 24-hour rainfall totals in inches, for the period that ended at 08/1200 UTC, are: 0.17 in Bermuda. This information is from the Pan American Temperature and Precipitation Tables/MIATPTPAN. A 1027 mb high pressure center is near 32N27W. Broad surface anticyclonic wind flow covers the Atlantic Ocean from 10N northward from the first cold front eastward. Strong NE winds are from 11N to 24N from 30W eastward. Moderate and fresh anticyclonic winds are elsewhere from the first cold front toward the east and the southeast. Moderate to rough seas are from 06N northward from 36W eastward. A surface ridge passes through 31N80W, through central Florida, to the Yucatan Peninsula. Moderate seas are elsewhere in the Atlantic Ocean. A cold front extending from 25N54W to the N coast of Hispaniola will weaken as it moves slowly across the E and SE forecast waters through midday Tue. A reinforcing cold front extending from 28N55W to the SE Bahamas will move across the area through tonight, accompanied by fresh to strong W to NW winds N of 29N. Associated large NW swell will build across the NE waters through Tue night. High pressure off the North Carolina coast will drift SE to near Bermuda by Wed night, then shift E Thu. The associated ridge will support moderate to fresh winds across the Great Bahama Bank and the Caribbean approaches today through Tue night, becoming fresh to strong Wed through Thu. Fresh southerly winds will develop offshore of Florida and N of the Bahamas on Wed and increase to strong to near gale-force Wed night through Thu, ahead of an approaching cold front. The front is expected to cross the Florida Peninsula Thu night and reach the NW Bahamas Fri morning. $$ MT/SS