000 AXNT20 KNHC 080548 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0605 UTC Mon Apr 8 2024 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0500 UTC. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough remains mostly inland over Africa. The ITCZ begins near 07N16W and continues to 00N30W and to 03S40W. Isolated convection is noted from 04S to 04N between 17W and 22W. ...GULF OF MEXICO... High pressure located over South Carolina extends a ridge across the Gulf waters. Under the influence of this system, moderate to fresh winds are over the western Gulf of Mexico, with fresh to locally strong winds noted offshore the northern Yucatan Peninsula, where seas are 4 to 6 ft. Elsewhere, winds are moderate or less, and seas are 3 ft or less. For the forecast, the high center will shift into the Atlantic through early next week. Fresh to strong winds will pulse off the northern coast of the Yucatan peninsula through tonight and Mon night. Fresh to strong SE winds will develop over most of the Gulf Mon afternoon and Mon night, and become SE to S Tue through Wed, ahead of an approaching cold front. This next cold front is expected to move into the western Gulf Wed morning and reach from near Mobile Bay to the NW coast of the Yucatan Peninsula by Thu morning. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... A surface ridge extends southwestward toward Cuba from high pressure located over South Carolina. A recent satellite scatterometer pass noted fresh to strong trades over the south-central Caribbean, including the Gulf of Venezuela, with seas of 5 to 8 ft outside the Gulf of Venezuela. Moderate to fresh NW winds are noted in the Windward Passage and the Gulf of Honduras. Gentle to moderate winds and seas of 3 to 5 prevail elsewhere. For the forecast, fresh to strong NE winds will pulse off the coast of Colombia and NW Venezuela through tonight. High pressure will build across the western Atlantic early next week, tightening the pressure gradient across the region. This will result in fresh to strong winds expanding in areal coverage across most of the central Caribbean Mon night, pulsing to near gale- force at night off of Colombia Mon night through Thu night. The building high pressure will also support fresh to strong winds developing in the Windward Passage, south of Hispaniola, and in the Gulf of Honduras starting Mon evening. Winds will start to diminish the end of the week as the area of high pressure shifts eastward and further from the area. Looking ahead, a cold front is expected to reach the Yucatan Channel Thu night. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... A cold front enters the forecast area near 31N49W and continues SW to near 20N70W. A reinforcing front follows and stretches from 31N55W to the central Bahamas. Fresh to strong S to SW winds and seas of 8 to 10 ft are N of 27N and E of the main front to about 45W. Fresh to strong W to NW winds are noted in the wake of the reinforcing front to 70W and north of 27N, where seas are 8 to 10 ft. North of 28N, and between fronts, SW to W winds and seas of 8 to 9 ft are evident. The remainder of the Atlantic forecast area is under the influence of 1024 mb high pressure located near 29N30W. Gentle to moderate anticyclonic flow covers the waters N of 20N and E of the above mentioned main front. Moderate to fresh northerly winds are near the coast of Africa from 10N to 30N due to the pressure gradient between the high pressure and lower pressures over E Africa. Seas are generally 6 to 9 ft within these winds, except in the lee of the lee of the Canary and Cabo Verde Islands. For the tropical Atlantic and E of the Lesser Antilles, gentle to moderate trade winds, and 5 to 7 ft seas exist. For the forecast west of 55W, the leading cold front will weaken as it moves slowly across the E and SE forecast waters through early Tue. The reinforcing cold front will move across the area through Mon night, accompanied by fresh to strong W to NW winds N of 27N. Associated large NW swell will build across the NE waters late tonight through Tue night. High pressure will move off the Carolina coasts Mon, and drift SE to near Bermuda by Wed night, then shift E Thu. The associated ridge will support moderate to fresh winds across the Great Bahama Bank and the Caribbean approaches Mon through Tue night, becoming fresh to strong Wed through Thu. Fresh southerly winds will develop offshore of Florida and N of the Bahamas on Wed and increase to strong to near gale-force Wed night through Thu, ahead of an approaching cold front. The front is expected to cross the Florida Peninsula Thu night and reach the NW Bahamas Fri morning. $$ Mora