000 AXNT20 KNHC 050546 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0605 UTC Fri Apr 05 2024 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0530 UTC. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough axis enters the Atlantic Ocean near 14N17W and extends southwest to 00N25W. The ITCZ begins near 00N25W and extends southwest to 05N36W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 01S to 05N between 10W and 22W. Isolated moderate convection is noted within 180 nm of the trough axis west of 22W. ...GULF OF MEXICO... High pressure is building eastward across the area. A 1018 mb high center is analyzed over the northwest Gulf of Mexico. The gradient from the high pressure and lower pressure over the SW Atlantic allows for moderate to fresh N to NW winds in the NE Gulf, where combined seas are 3 to 5 ft. Gentle to moderate winds and 2 to 4 ft seas are elsewhere. For the forecast, the moderate to fresh winds will decrease tonight through Fri as high pressure builds across the area. The high pressure will shift eastward through the end of the week, allowing for mostly fresh E to SE winds to develop over the western and central Gulf through Sat night, then diminish Sun. Fresh to strong SE winds will then develop over most of the Gulf Mon and Mon night. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... A cold front extends from western Cuba southwestward to Honduras. The western periphery of central Atlantic high pressure extends west-southwestward to the northern Leeward Islands. The latest ASCAT satellite data passes indicate moderate to fresh winds in the NW Caribbean north of the front, where seas are 5 to 6 ft. Fresh winds are also noted in the south-central Caribbean, north of Colombia and Venezuela, where seas are 5 to 6 ft. moderate winds and 2 to 4 ft seas are elsewhere. For the forecast, the previously mentioned front is expected to reach from central Cuba southwestward to the Gulf of Honduras Fri morning, then stall and weaken from near the Windward Passage to the Mexican coast along 19N on Sat. High pressure behind the front will move from the NE Gulf of Mexico on Sat to the middle Atlantic coast of the U.S. by Mon. Moderate to fresh northerly winds will follow the front, affecting mainly the waters from the Yucatan Channel to Belize adjacent waters through Fri morning. Fresh to strong NE winds will pulse off the coast of Colombia at night through Sun night. The fresh to strong winds will expand in areal coverage, reaching near gale-force speeds Mon night as high pressure builds N of the area. Expect strong NE winds to develop in the Windward Passage Mon. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... A late-season cold front is analyzed from near 31N67W southwestward to the central Bahamas and to far western Cuba. The latest ASCAT satellite data passes indicate fresh to strong SW winds north of 27N and east of the frontal boundary to 60W. A surface trough west of the cold front stretches from 31N70W to SE Florida. Fresh to strong W winds are west of the surface trough. Moderate to rough seas are northwest of the cold front, north of 29N. To the east of the cold front, a broad area of high pressure, anchored by a 1022 mb high near 23N51W, is the main feature influencing the wind regime in the central and eastern Atlantic sections. A cold front has entered the area near 31N32W to 30N50W. Fresh to strong winds are ahead of the front, north of 28N and west of 25W. Strong to near gale force winds are behind the front, east of 40W. These winds support seas of 12 to 14 ft in the area. 8 to 10 ft seas follow to front, north of 28N and east of 50W. Elsewhere, the gradient between the high pressure and lower pressures in the deep tropics supports an area of fresh NE winds from 05N to 15N between 40W and 55W. For the forecast W of 55W, the previously described cold front will reach from 31N64W to central Cuba by Fri morning, from near 31N58W to the Turks and Caicos Sat morning, then weaken as it moves across the E and SE forecast waters Sun through Mon. Strong winds and rough seas on either side of the front N of 28N will gradually diminish by Sat. A reinforcing cold front will quickly move across the area from late Fri night through the upcoming weekend, followed by fresh to strong W to NW winds N of 27N. High pressure will move off the coast of South Carolina early next week, with the associated ridge expected to support moderate to fresh winds across the Great Bahama Bank and the Caribbean approaches through Wed. $$ Mora