000 AXNT20 KNHC 020916 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1205 UTC Tue Apr 2 2024 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0900 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES Gulf of Mexico Gale Warning: A cold front will enter the NW Gulf of Mexico this morning and extend from the Florida Panhandle to the Bay of Campeche Wed morning. Gale force NW winds associated with the front are expected offshore Veracruz, Mexico beginning tonight and ending Wed afternoon. Seas will build 8 to 10 ft in the area of these winds by Wed morning. As the cold front exits the basin, marine conditions will improve in the SW Gulf Wed night. Mariners should monitor the hazardous marine conditions and adjust their routes accordingly. Please read the latest High Seas and Offshore Waters Forecasts issued by the National Hurricane Center at the websites: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml and https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/offshores.php for more details. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of Guinea- Bissau near 11N15W and continues southward to 02N15W. The ITCZ extends from 02N15W to 02S29W and to 02S45W. Scattered moderate convection is noted south of 03N and between 10W and 30W. ...GULF OF MEXICO... Divergence aloft and southerly winds result in plenty of cloudiness and a few showers affecting the NW Gulf waters. The pressure gradient between a 1021 mb high pressure system in the western Atlantic and lower pressures in Texas and Mexico result in fresh to strong SE-S winds west of 87W. Seas in these waters are 5-8 ft. Moderate or weaker winds and slight to moderate seas prevail east of 87W. The combination of dense fog due to persistent southerly flow and smoke from agricultural fires is lowering visibility over much of the western Gulf. For the forecast, surface ridging from the Atlantic that extends westward across the region will continue to shift eastward today as a cold front moves across eastern Texas. The front will enter the western Gulf later this morning, reach from the Florida panhandle to the Bay of Campeche Wed, then move southeast of the area into Thu. Northerly winds behind the front are expected to reach gale force offshore Veracruz tonight into Wed. Fresh to strong winds and building seas are expected elsewhere west of the front. Winds and seas will decrease Thu through Fri as high pressure builds in the wake of the front. The high pressure will shift eastward through the end of the week allowing for fresh to strong east to southeast winds to develop over the western and central Gulf. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... The basin is dominated by a 1021 mb high pressure system centered between Bermuda and Puerto Rico. The pressure gradient between the aforementioned ridge and lower pressures in NW South America supports strong to near gale-force easterly trade winds in the south-central Caribbean. These winds support seas of 8-11 ft. Fresh to strong easterly breezes and seas of 4-7 ft are present in the north-central and northwest Caribbean, including the Windward Passage and the Gulf of Honduras. Moderate winds and moderate seas prevail elsewhere. For the forecast, high pressure north of the region will support pulsing of fresh northeast winds in the Windward Passage and off the southern coast of Hispaniola through this morning. Pulsing strong to near gale NE winds will continue producing rough seas off the coast of Colombia through Wed morning. Winds will diminish and seas will subside across the basin on Wed as the high pressure shifts eastward well away from the area. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... A weak cold front enters the tropical Atlantic near 31N23W and continues southwestward to 26N33W, where it becomes a stationary to 20N44W, followed by a surface trough to 15N47W. The rest of the tropical Atlantic is dominated by a 1021 mb high pressure in the western Atlantic and a 1021 mb high pressure in the eastern Atlantic near 26N66W. The pressure gradient between the western Atlantic ridge and lower pressures in the mid-latitudes sustain moderate to fresh westerly winds north of 29N. Light to moderate winds are noted S of 29N. An area of fresh winds prevails from 10N to 26N and E of 29N. Rough seas prevail N of 25N between 34W-54W, while slight to moderate seas are noted elsewhere across the basin. For the forecast west of 55W, high pressure over the region will shift eastward tonight as a strong cold front approaches from the west. The cold front will move off the coast of Florida Wed, reach from near Bermuda to western Cuba Thu, from near 31N65W to east- central Cuba early Fri and from near 31N62W to Hispaniola by late Sat. Increasing winds and building seas will be both ahead and behind the front, mainly N of 25N. Brief gusts to gale force are possible ahead of the front, with scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms. There is a possibility of some of this activity being strong to severe. High pressure will settle in over the area in the wake of the front. $$ ERA