000 AXNT20 KNHC 011755 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1805 UTC Mon Apr 1 2024 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1705 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES Gulf of Mexico Gale Warning: A cold front will enter the western Gulf of Mexico on Tuesday morning and extend from the Florida Panhandle to the SW Gulf of Mexico by Wednesday. Gale force NW winds associated with the front are expected offshore Veracruz, Mexico beginning Tuesday night through Wednesday morning. Seas will build 6 to 9 ft in the area of these winds by Wednesday morning. As the cold front exits the basin, marine conditions will improve in the SW Gulf Wednesday night. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough remains mainly inland over Africa. The ITCZ extends from 07N15W to 00N20W to 02S25W. The ITCZ is intercepted by a trough that extends from 00N30W to 06S27W. Scattered moderate convection associated with this trough is from 07S to 03N between 25W and 35W. ...GULF OF MEXICO... A 1024 mb high pressure system centered between Bermuda and Hispaniola extends a ridge to the Gulf of Mexico. The pressure gradient between the ridge and lower pressures in Mexico supports pulses of fresh to strong southerly winds over much of the western half of the basin, confirmed in recent buoy observations. This supports seas of 4 to 6 ft. Over the eastern Gulf, moderate winds or less and slight seas continue. The combination of dense fog due to persistent southerly flow and smoke from agricultural fires is lowering visibility in the SW Gulf. An observation offshore Tampico, Mexico, reported visibility down to 2 nm. Hazy skies from the agricultural fire cover a majority of the western Gulf. For the forecast, fresh to strong east to southeast winds will pulse across the western Gulf through Tue. A cold front will enter the western Gulf on Tue morning. It will extend from the Florida panhandle to the Bay of Campeche Wed, and move SE of the area late Wed night into Thu. Fresh to strong winds and building seas are expected west of the front. Winds and seas will decrease Thu through Fri as high pressure builds in the wake of the front. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... The basin is influenced by a 1024 mb high pressure system centered between Bermuda and Hispaniola. The pressure gradient between the aforementioned ridge and lower pressures in NW South America supports strong to near gale-force easterly trade winds in the south-central Caribbean, as noted in a recent satellite scatterometer pass. These winds support seas of 7 to 10 ft. Fresh to strong easterly breezes and seas of 4 to 7 ft are found in the north-central Caribbean, including the Windward Passage and S of Hispaniola. Moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas prevail elsewhere. For the forecast, high pressure north of the region will support pulsing of fresh to strong northeast winds in the Windward Passage and off the southern coast of Hispaniola through Tue. Strong trade winds producing seas will pulse off the coast of Colombia through Tue. Winds will diminish and seas will subside starting Wed as the high pressure shifts eastward well away from the area. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... A 1024 mb high pressure system centered between Bermuda and Hispaniola dominates the SW Atlantic. To the east, a cold front extends from 31N30W to 20N45W. No significant convection is associated with this boundary. Fresh to strong southerly winds are evident north of 27N and east of the cold front and 26W. Seas of 8 to 10 ft in NW swell remain behind the cold front, north of 20N between 45W and 65W. Seas of 8 to 10 ft in northerly swell are also ahead of the front north of 15N and mostly east of 30W. For the forecast west of 55W, rough seas east of 60W will subside from west to east through today. A cold front will move off the coast of Florida on Wed. This front will extend from near Bermuda to western Cuba Thu, and from near 31N58W to central Cuba Fri. Increasing winds and building seas will be both ahead and behind this front, mainly N of 25N. $$ MORA