000
AXNT20 KNHC 310407
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0605 UTC Sun Mar 31 2024

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
0355 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough reaches the Atlantic Ocean through the coast of
Sierra Leone near 07N12W and continues southwestward to 01N17W. 
The ITCZ extends from 01N17W to 03S30W and to 01S46W. Scattered 
moderate to isolated strong convection is observed within 200 nm
on both sides of the monsoon trough and ITCZ between 17W and 39W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A modest subtropical ridge positioned east of the NW Bahamas
extends a ridge to the Gulf of Mexico. No deep convection is noted
across the basin. The pressure gradient between the ridge and
lower pressures in Mexico result in moderate to fresh E-SE winds
across much of the Gulf, except for light to gentle in the NE
Gulf. Seas are 3-6 ft over much of the Gulf, except slight seas in
the NE Gulf.

For the forecast, fresh E to SE winds will prevail across the
western Gulf through Mon. A cold front will enter the western 
Gulf on Tue. The front will extend from the Florida panhandle to 
the Bay of Campeche Wed, and will move SE of the area Thu. Fresh 
to strong winds and building seas are expected west of the front. 
Winds and seas will decrease Thu as the front moves out of the 
area. 

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Scattered pockets of low-level moisture are found in the central
and western Caribbean producing isolated showers. The basin is
under the influence of a 1023 mb high pressure system located east
of the NW Bahamas. The subtropical ridge forces strong to near
gale-force easterly trade winds in the south-central Caribbean
Sea. This was confirmed by a recent scatterometer satellite pass. 
Seas in these waters are 6-9 ft. Fresh to locally strong easterly 
breezes and seas of 4-7 ft are found in the north-central 
Caribbean, Windward Passage and lee of Cuba. Elsewhere, moderate 
or weaker winds and slight to moderate seas prevail.

For the forecast, high pressure north of the region will support
pulsing of fresh to strong NE winds in the lee of eastern Cuba
and across the Windward Passage through Sun evening. Strong
trade winds and rough seas will pulse off the southern coast of
Hispaniola the remainder of this weekend, and off the coast of
Colombia through the middle of next week. Winds and seas will
then decrease across the area the middle of the week as the area
of high pressure shifts eastward and further from the area.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A 1023 mb high pressure system centered east of NW Bahamas 
dominates much of the western Atlantic, maintaining fairly 
tranquil weather conditions. Moderate to locally fresh westerly 
winds are present north of 29N and east of 60W. Moderate to rough 
seas are occurring in the area described. Farther east, a cold 
front extends from 31N50W to the eastern Hispaniola. The NE wind 
flow result in isolated to scattered showers affecting eastern 
Bahamas, NE Cuba and northern Hispaniola. Moderate to fresh N-NE 
winds and seas of 8-12 ft are occurring behind the frontal 
boundary.

A surface trough extends from 31N45W to 20N47W and to 09N58W.
Isolated showers are evident near the trough axis. Fresh to strong
southerly winds and seas of 7-10 ft north of 25N and between the
surface trough and 38W. The remainder of the tropical Atlantic is
dominated by a 1023 mb high pressure system near 27N33W. Moderate
to fresh westerly winds and seas of 10-13 ft are occurring north
of 28N and east of 25W. Farther south, moderate easterly trade
winds and seas of 8-11 ft are noted south of 20N and east of 45W.
Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas prevail.
 
For the forecast W of 55W, the aforementioned front will continue
to move east of the area through Sun. Strong winds and rough seas
follow the front W of 65W. Winds and seas will decrease from west
to east through early Mon as high pressure continues to build in 
the wake of the front. The next cold front will move off the coast
of Florida on Wed. This front will extend from near Bermuda to W 
Cuba Thu. Increasing winds and building seas will be both ahead 
and behind this front mainly N of 25N.

$$
Delgado